Do it again? Failing to go for it - showed HCNB was coaching NOT to lose - instead of playing to win. This the same type of coaching that has caused us to lose the "close-ones" over and over and over. Analytics boils down to playing it safe - that's the hallmark of HCNB's approach to coaching for the most part.
Even the analytics are against him. WVU had not been stopped for a loss and I think only once stopped for no gain running the ball all game. (excluding throws behind the line or QB scrabbles) If WVU's defense was playing so well as he claims, then that provides you insurance in the event you do not convert. Pitt's defense and line had been out there most of the quarter and were tired, further increasing the chances of success. If you are aware that the only reason those last 2 WVU defensive series were so good was because of Pitt's mistakes with stellar plays by the D line AND that Pitt was very close to gashing WVU on multiple plays before with the only thing stopping them being their own mistakes, then keeping them off the field says going for it is favorable. Also the game flow was either WVU stopped Pitt without much gain or gave up a scoring drive. WVU hadn't really gave up multiple first downs to Pitt and tightened up to stop a score all game. That trend means Pitt was likely getting a TD or getting stopped no matter where they started.
No matter how Brown slices it, the odds were at the very least even between the 2 and he chose wrong. The fact he doesn't see that is disconcerting. Had we won after punting it away or we lost after going for it on 4th and less than a yard, I would still say the right call was to go for it.