When does one and done end and...

[HerrosHeroes]

how bad do you think it will affect UK at least early on say the first 1-4 years?

TIA BBN

 

[WildMoon]

Not much

 

[kydmb99_rivals103809]

I’m still not 100% convinced it’s ending anytime soon. I can’t imagine teams want to go back to scouting high school gyms. It’s actually not a bad rule for the NBA imo

 

[MWes11]

Don't think it will affect the top programs at all. The 5 or 10 players who think they can bypass college and jump to the NBA will go. Kentucky will still get the best available players after that, like usual, with the other top programs also getting their share.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I think it will just shave off the uber-elite players. I don't think college ball will water down without them. It just lowers the bar a smidge. But look at it this way.. Khalil was a monster against lesser competition.. kind of the same thing. Your recruits in the 30-10 range will be the new Anthony Davis's and Zion's, to some degree.

EIther way, College basketball isn't going to die because 7 or 8 guys bypass the one single year of college ball.

 

[ganner918_rivals60369]

Consider a guy like Tyler Herro. He was not going to get drafted out of high school. He chose Kentucky because he knew we'd help put him in the NBA - and we did. It's entirely possible that the end of one and done could HELP Kentucky. A guy like Wiseman, Edwards, etc. is going to get drafted no matter where they go. If those guys just jump straight to the NBA, the best of what's left know they need to prove themselves. Where better to do that than here?

 

[Chuckinden]

I, for one, hopes the OAD in it's current form ends tomorrow.

 

[bthaunert]

I think it will just shave off the uber-elite players. I don't think college ball will water down without them. It just lowers the bar a smidge. But look at it this way.. Khalil was a monster against lesser competition.. kind of the same thing. Your recruits in the 30-10 range will be the new Anthony Davis's and Zion's, to some degree.

EIther way, College basketball isn't going to die because 7 or 8 guys bypass the one single year of college ball.

It's going to be much more than 7-8 imo. Look at the trend of freshman entering the draft over the past 10 years:

2019 - 21
2018 - 22
2017 - 20
2016 - 17
2015 - 14
2014 - 11
2013 - 8
2012 - 9
2011 - 8
2010 - 10

This doesn't include the guys that have started to go international out of high school. I think we will be looking at 15-20 a year at the beginning. Depending on how much G League salaries continue to creep up, that number could rise.

For me, the issue isn't guys who could go to the NBA, it's the date by which they need to declare. How much time and effort will coaches put into a guy who might go, but might not go?

And you will still have guys declare after their freshman year too. You could potentially have 30 guys from a high school class never see their sophomore year, which would be triple the amount from just 6 years ago.

 

[CELTICAT]

Letting kids go straight from high school doesn't end OAD. There will still be OAD players. We'll probably get those guys and have teams similar to this year's with a mix of guys not quite ready and guys not quite able to make the jump straight out.

 

[caneintally]

It won't effect UK really either way . UK will still get 3-8 of the best players every year there will just 7-8 players every year taken off the top and then 4-5 guys who have no business going pro but don't like school or can't cut it so about 13-15 total every year entering the draft . It will make recruiting interesting though as you can't spend too much time on kids who might go pro .

 

[LineSkiCat14]

It's going to be much more than 7-8 imo. Look at the trend of freshman entering the draft over the past 10 years:

2019 - 21
2018 - 22
2017 - 20
2016 - 17
2015 - 14
2014 - 11
2013 - 8
2012 - 9
2011 - 8
2010 - 10

This doesn't include the guys that have started to go international out of high school. I think we will be looking at 15-20 a year at the beginning. Depending on how much G League salaries continue to creep up, that number could rise.

For me, the issue isn't guys who could go to the NBA, it's the date by which they need to declare. How much time and effort will coaches put into a guy who might go, but might not go?

And you will still have guys declare after their freshman year too. You could potentially have 30 guys from a high school class never see their sophomore year, which would be triple the amount from just 6 years ago.

But.. those freshman proved something at the next level. Are the Bulls going to risk drafting the 17th ranked kid out of highschool? That would be the following players (24/7):

2019: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
2018: Jaylen Hoard
2017: Gary Trent Jr
2016: Jarret Allen
2015: DJ Hogg.

Yeah some of those guys are in the NBA now.. butdo teams take the risk based on their HS playing days? Not sure. I mean Cal HIMSELF basically made Allen a secondary while we waited for (gulp) Marquese Bolden..

For reference, the year with the MOST Highschool-to-NBA drafts picks was 2005 and that was only 9 of them. 2004 had 8.. and then no other year had more than a handful. Now admittedly, times are changing. HS players have more exposure, but I still expect somewhere in the 10's at most, for a given year.

As for the guys that leave after their freshman year.. could happen. But there are only 60 spots in the draft. So you have 10 HS guys, roughly 10 international prospects and probably another 20-30 upper classmen. You're not leaving much room for 1AD players.

I think it will all shake out. All the groups will dig into each other. You just can't have 20 HS guys go and then another 20 1AD picks. Some of those guys will sense that they are a 2nd round pick and either go to college for a year or come back for their 2nd.

 

[Blueaz]

As of right now...OAD is not ending.
NBA will be taking straight from high school...it will not change OAD.
The effect will be "waiting to see" who declares for NBA and who want to still be OAD.
College basketball will become worse...a few schools will still get the best talent, but it won't be as elite and the product will be greatly watered down.
Bennett will be the best coach, defense will trump offensive athleticism.

Somehow colleges need to work with NBA, to have straight from high school or two years removed.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

As of right now...OAD is not ending.
NBA will be taking straight from high school...it will not change OAD.
The effect will be "waiting to see" who declares for NBA and who want to still be OAD.
College basketball will become worse...a few schools will still get the best talent, but it won't be as elite and the product will be greatly watered down.
Bennett will be the best coach, defense will trump offensive athleticism.

Somehow colleges need to work with NBA, to have straight from high school or two years removed.

Ok Blue but when will the guys be allowed to jump to the NBA straight out of HS like Kobe did back in the day?

I think I heard 2 years from now?

 

[akaukswoosh]

It's going to be much more than 7-8 imo. Look at the trend of freshman entering the draft over the past 10 years:

2019 - 21
2018 - 22
2017 - 20
2016 - 17
2015 - 14
2014 - 11
2013 - 8
2012 - 9
2011 - 8
2010 - 10

This doesn't include the guys that have started to go international out of high school. I think we will be looking at 15-20 a year at the beginning. Depending on how much G League salaries continue to creep up, that number could rise.

For me, the issue isn't guys who could go to the NBA, it's the date by which they need to declare. How much time and effort will coaches put into a guy who might go, but might not go?

And you will still have guys declare after their freshman year too. You could potentially have 30 guys from a high school class never see their sophomore year, which would be triple the amount from just 6 years ago.

Agree. It's not just going to be a small handful of kids. And as Cal warned, a lot of kids who think they are NBA good but aren't have no incentive to keep their grades up and then can't go to college or the NBA. I see lots of problems

 

[Cobb4uk_rivals287622]

One and Done will only end when the NBA decides it not in their best interest. Having college basketball as their minor league is a financial advantage they're not going to give up unless the G league gets a major TV network package.

 

[KopiKat]

Letting kids go straight from high school doesn't end OAD. There will still be OAD players. We'll probably get those guys and have teams similar to this year's with a mix of guys not quite ready and guys not quite able to make the jump straight out.

This is 100% correct. Although it will have an effect, perhaps even a positive one. But it it will not cure the overall nuisance issue: players who do not appear ready to leave college after their freshman years yet do so.

But here is what it WILL do:

It will re-expose the true culprit to the overall condition, which is this: the NBA salary cap on rookies (players in their first 3 seasons). When the condition persists, and growing question becoming why and WHY? . . . observers will find it, finally, impossible to ignore that elephant in the room, that one condition that increases profit margins for franchises the most (by lowering labor costs), through maximizing as much as possible the number of active roster players in their first 3 years. This has always been the true cause. Observers do not want to admit to it because they do not want to give up on their perceived moral right to dictate what enough monetary compensation should be. They do not want to say they were wrong for hating those times, long ago now, when a rookie could bargain openly for his own contract, and begin earning as much as some veteran all-stars . . . that period when the best players did actually go to college and stay there 3 and 4 years, simply because there was nothing about them that would help NBA employers make more money.

 

[chroix]

It's going to hurt the L$Us and Arizonas of the world more than us. Why make $100k when you can get $250-500k?

 

[kydmb99_rivals103809]

One and Done will only end when the NBA decides it not in their best interest. Having college basketball as their minor league is a financial advantage they're not going to give up unless the G league gets a major TV network package.

I don’t think the G-League will ever catch on the way the NBA hopes. It’s not a compelling product. It means nothing.

 

[AirRaidFreshman89]

Unless they're gonna do what ncaa baseball does and make it that you commit to a 3 year scholarship if you don't go pro out of high school I don't see the point in changing it. The baseball model is the only way to bring college basketball back to what it used to be by requiring some continuity and having guys who commit to college ball actually honor their scholarships and be student athletes. Terrible I know

 

[yoshukai]

It won't effect UK really either way . UK will still get 3-8 of the best players every year there will just 7-8 players every year taken off the top and then 4-5 guys who have no business going pro but don't like school or can't cut it so about 13-15 total every year entering the draft . It will make recruiting interesting though as you can't spend too much time on kids who might go pro .

I'm bettin there will be a dozen or more that have no business going but do .

 

[bthaunert]

But.. those freshman proved something at the next level. Are the Bulls going to risk drafting the 17th ranked kid out of highschool? That would be the following players (24/7):

2019: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
2018: Jaylen Hoard
2017: Gary Trent Jr
2016: Jarret Allen
2015: DJ Hogg.

Yeah some of those guys are in the NBA now.. butdo teams take the risk based on their HS playing days? Not sure. I mean Cal HIMSELF basically made Allen a secondary while we waited for (gulp) Marquese Bolden..

For reference, the year with the MOST Highschool-to-NBA drafts picks was 2005 and that was only 9 of them. 2004 had 8.. and then no other year had more than a handful. Now admittedly, times are changing. HS players have more exposure, but I still expect somewhere in the 10's at most, for a given year.

As for the guys that leave after their freshman year.. could happen. But there are only 60 spots in the draft. So you have 10 HS guys, roughly 10 international prospects and probably another 20-30 upper classmen. You're not leaving much room for 1AD players.

I think it will all shake out. All the groups will dig into each other. You just can't have 20 HS guys go and then another 20 1AD picks. Some of those guys will sense that they are a 2nd round pick and either go to college for a year or come back for their 2nd.

I'm not saying that many will get drafted, I think that many will declare. Some will look at the G League and the $35,000 salary and free housing as a better option than college basketball if they don't get drafted.

I wouldn't put as much stock into draft spots and how many get drafted. The G League is becoming a legit option for young guys these days and will only continue to get better imo.

 

[bthaunert]

I don’t think the G-League will ever catch on the way the NBA hopes. It’s not a compelling product. It means nothing.

Not sure what you mean by the NBA wanting the G League to catch on. It's become a legitimate minor league for the NBA. 52% of players who were on rosters at the end of last season played in the G League at some point in their career. 10 years ago, that number was probably minuscule. The G League is a legit option out there for guys who don't want to go to college.

 

[JonathanW_rivals]

how bad do you think it will affect UK at least early on say the first 1-4 years?

TIA BBN

I don't think it will affect us bad. Keep in mind, Cal was the leader in adapting recruiting philosophy to the OAD. And it worked so well that Coach K followed.
I expect Cal will be a leader in the post OAD rule too. In fact our recent recruiting of a lot of guys in the 10-20 range seems to follow that. You will probably only have 8-12 coming out of HS able to get drafted.

 

[Primus agitare lyncas]

I think you will still see some players leave after one year even if the NBA starts to allow recruits straight from HS again, there will be some that need that one extra year to hone their craft like Tyler Herro. Those will be Kentucky's next targets along with a few 3 year players. The 4 year senior ,aside from some major injury comebacks, will continue to be a rarity for us.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Agree. It's not just going to be a small handful of kids. And as Cal warned, a lot of kids who think they are NBA good but aren't have no incentive to keep their grades up and then can't go to college or the NBA. I see lots of problems

But the NBA will stop drafting HSers much past the top10. As these kids flame out for leaving early, the NBA teams that draft them also take a hit. And they will take notice. Yes, the DJ Hogg's of the world might get drafted in year 1 or 2.. But I have to imagine the that not only NBA teams will start top shy away from those kids.. but the recruits themselves might see it as not worth it.

I guess a long winded way of saying "Will DJ Hogg try and by pass college in 2025? Will it ven be an option for him?"

 

[kycat14]

What did I miss? I thought when the new rule went into effect, part of the new NBA rule was that if you choose to enter college you were not NBA eligible for two years, making it a two and done rule. Am I mistaken?

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I'm not saying that many will get drafted, I think that many will declare. Some will look at the G League and the $35,000 salary and free housing as a better option than college basketball if they don't get drafted.

I wouldn't put as much stock into draft spots and how many get drafted. The G League is becoming a legit option for young guys these days and will only continue to get better imo.

I just can't see the G-league being much of a factor. I know the salaries are rising, but those teams still have a good deal of talent on them. In the case of DJ Hogg, or any 15th-ish ranked recruit. Is that the best option? Trying to compete for playing time with much more experienced fringe-NBA talent? Does DJ Hogg get exposed doing this?

I wonder if a lot of recruits will still at the end of the day pick college as it seems to be the safest route. No, they won't get paid. But the competition in college is the perfect next step for most of them. I also think parents prefer this over traveling from city-to-city at age 18 with grown adults.

Khalil Whitney would be killed in the G-league.. and it won't be long before stories like that cause those non-top10 recruits to pick college.

I could be totally wrong.. I'm just speculating.

 

[bthaunert]

I just can't see the G-league being much of a factor. I know the salaries are rising, but those teams still have a good deal of talent on them. In the case of DJ Hogg, or any 15th-ish ranked recruit. Is that the best option? Trying to compete for playing time with much more experienced fringe-NBA talent? Does DJ Hogg get exposed doing this?

I wonder if a lot of recruits will still at the end of the day pick college as it seems to be the safest route. No, they won't get paid. But the competition in college is the perfect next step for most of them. I also think parents prefer this over traveling from city-to-city at age 18 with grown adults.

Khalil Whitney would be killed in the G-league.. and it won't be long before stories like that cause those non-top10 recruits to pick college.

I could be totally wrong.. I'm just speculating.

I think you might be giving some high school kids and their families too much credit for thinking logically We will see how it pans out.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I think you might be giving some high school kids and their families too much credit for thinking logically We will see how it pans out.

Probably. I for SURE think it will be an absolute mess to start. This change will ruin several basketball careers for sure. It will take time to figure out.

 

[Blueaz]

Ok Blue but when will the guys be allowed to jump to the NBA straight out of HS like Kobe did back in the day?

I think I heard 2 years from now?

yep...but that doesn't mean that OADs will go away...the D league will expand (imo)
I think the NBA will only take 3-7 outa of high school.
i also think it will water down the NBA product after 3 or 4 years

 

[$Z71$]

It won't effect UK really either way . UK will still get 3-8 of the best players every year there will just 7-8 players every year taken off the top and then 4-5 guys who have no business going pro but don't like school or can't cut it so about 13-15 total every year entering the draft . It will make recruiting interesting though as you can't spend too much time on kids who might go pro .

There are only 60 draft picks. I don’t think 25-33% of them will ever be high school players. Taking the 20th ranked high school senior over a foreign player or a proven college player? Highly doubtful.

 

[JAC71]

Nothing will change for instance, Tyler Herro was a four star recruit and still left after one year.other than lower ranked kids doing their thing and going to the nba after one season

 

[kydmb99_rivals103809]

Not sure what you mean by the NBA wanting the G League to catch on. It's become a legitimate minor league for the NBA. 52% of players who were on rosters at the end of last season played in the G League at some point in their career. 10 years ago, that number was probably minuscule. The G League is a legit option out there for guys who don't want to go to college.

i’m talking about it actually being popular enough to be another healthy revenue stream

 

[bthaunert]

i’m talking about it actually being popular enough to be another healthy revenue stream

They don’t need it to be a revenue stream. That’s not the purpose of it.

 

[Nooneputsbabyinacorner]

I think it will just shave off the uber-elite players. I don't think college ball will water down without them. It just lowers the bar a smidge. But look at it this way.. Khalil was a monster against lesser competition.. kind of the same thing. Your recruits in the 30-10 range will be the new Anthony Davis's and Zion's, to some degree.

EIther way, College basketball isn't going to die because 7 or 8 guys bypass the one single year of college ball.

You're right but it will be the top 15-20 kids who will jump.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

You're right but it will be the top 15-20 kids who will jump.

But then those 15 to 20 spots will have to come from somewhere. If 20 highschoolers jump, you're not also going to have 20 1AD players. We have to remember that the NBA isnt allowing more players in. It's still 60 a year... probably less as some never even make it.

 

[KyFaninNC]

Don't think it will affect the top programs at all. The 5 or 10 players who think they can bypass college and jump to the NBA will go. Kentucky will still get the best available players after that, like usual, with the other top programs also getting their share.

As long as Cal is here, we will continue to get about the same level players we are getting now.