Where does realignment go from here?

[Tango Two]

The move was a headscratcher for most people who followed college sports, until then-Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany clarified that adding Rutgers and Maryland put the New York television audience squarely in the Big Ten’s footprint, which positioned the Big Ten Network to capture the most lucrative media market in the nation. Former Ohio State President Gordon Gee was more blunt, saying in 2013 that “[The addition of Maryland and Rutgers to the Big Ten] gives us 40 to 50 million more viewers, makes the BTN worth more money than God.”

https://www.thechampaignroom.com/20...llini-football-notre-dame-irish-clemson-tiger

 

[NickRU714]

Oh ya. Certainly sounds like the Big Ten took a huge risk aligning with Rutgers.....
What a huge risk the Big Ten took......

Just the minimum understanding of business makes any "Big Ten took a big risk in accepting us. We got lucky the Big Ten took the risk" statement look incredibly dumb.

 

[newwavedave1]

It's a shame that college athletcs and it's amateur designation is now all about the money.

 

[Rufaninga]

Well, there's always intramural sports for the purists out there to enjoy

 

[brgRC90]

Oh ya. Certainly sounds like the Big Ten took a huge risk aligning with Rutgers.....
What a huge risk the Big Ten took......

Just the minimum understanding of business makes any "Big Ten took a big risk in accepting us. We got lucky the Big Ten took the risk" statement look incredibly dumb.

You had a metro area with a $2 trillion per year economy and upwards of 23 million people there for the taking, while the Big East leadership could not or would not take advantage. No doubt the Big Ten was better placed to exploit that than the Big East but it really wasn't a strange decision from a financial point of view. Lots of fans looked at it from a different angle, though.

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

Oh ya. Certainly sounds like the Big Ten took a huge risk aligning with Rutgers.....
What a huge risk the Big Ten took......

Just the minimum understanding of business makes any "Big Ten took a big risk in accepting us. We got lucky the Big Ten took the risk" statement look incredibly dumb.

Less about the B10’s risk or about them making money off carriage fees in NJ/NY and more about if you ask too much in return, the B10 doesn’t have to do anything. The risk is on our side where they say it’s too much trouble, we’ll take pass for now or maybe forever.

Look at the PAC, they had a deal on the table that was at least as much or more as the B12 eventually got. They wanted more and ESPN/Fox said we’ll pass. No one else came to the rescue and now the conference is in shambles. That’s the kind of risk we would have taken and it’s too big of one to afford.

 

[WhiteBus]

Where does realignment go from here?? Well it's already in the toilet so I guess it gets flushed. People who think giant 20+ team "conferences" is good are absolutely nuts. The money isn't there for adding more teams. After USC and UCLA the two top offers for the rest of the schools was $25m per and $30m per. That's it. The PAC 12 was looking $50m per. The Big Ten added some low hanging fruit and at sometime will be paying them way above their value.

https://www.si.com/fannation/colleg...hat came,Coast football insider John Canzano.

 

[rucoe89]

It goes here next: Next Stop on Realignment

Maybe 3 (or 4) of these schools may not make the cut. But overall, would say it will only be about 3 (or 4). The rest will be treated as protected blue bloods.

BTW, wouldn't be surprised if he was prodded to write the anti-Rutgers article as a process to start culling the pack by setting some narratives in advance.

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

Less about the B10’s risk or about them making money off carriage fees in NJ/NY and more about if you ask too much in return, the B10 doesn’t have to do anything. The risk is on our side where they say it’s too much trouble, we’ll take pass for now or maybe forever.

Look at the PAC, they had a deal on the table that was at least as much or more as the B12 eventually got. They wanted more and ESPN/Fox said we’ll pass. No one else came to the rescue and now the conference is in shambles. That’s the kind of risk we would have taken and it’s too big of one to afford.

 

[Shelby65]

My prediction is, once the ACC GoR period ends you will see the P..,P4 that is, split into upper and lower divisions. Uppers won’t play lower, even in inter-conference games. Uppers will split 2/3 the total conference rights disbursement and lowers split 1/3.

There will be upper playoffs and lower playoffs.

ND is slotted ACC Upper division to retain potential path to playoffs and NC

 

[Nycrusupporter]

My prediction is, once the ACC GoR period ends you will see the P..,P4 that is, split into upper and lower divisions. Uppers won’t play lower, even in inter-conference games. Uppers will split 2/3 the total conference rights disbursement and lowers split 1/3.

There will be upper playoffs and lower playoffs.

ND is slotted ACC Upper division to retain potential path to playoffs and NC

Will never happen, the top programs need to play several cupcakes, no one wants a schedule against teams that are all good with no breaks in between.

 

[Shelby65]

Will never happen, the top programs need to play several cupcakes, no one wants a schedule against teams that are all good with no breaks in between.

Maybe, maybe not. It’s about the money. I see something close to the NFL.,

 

[BigEastPhil]

Next Step in Realignment: Everyone waits for ACC to implode.

When that occurs, I expect:

- UNC and UVA to Big 10 giving it 20 schools

- FSU / Clemson / NC State and VA Tech to SEC giving it 20 schools

- Notre Dame then becomes wild card and should they join Big 10 - then conference will need another school so take your pick between : Miami / GA Tech / Duke or Stanford. I’d personally prefer Miami or Duke.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Maybe, maybe not. It’s about the money. I see something close to the NFL.,

College economics are different. There’s still big time money in the bowl system that would be washed down the drain in the structure you describe. A 30-40 team super league couldn’t expand play off selection much beyond 12 without making the regular season a farce.

I also don’t think the Ohio States and Michigans of the BIG want to partner with the Alabamas and LSUs. Money talks, but only to an extent. Teams also look out for the future of their program development. Recruiting becomes harder overall on the blue blood schools up north in the super conference scenerio IMO. They are better off being powers in the BIG.

 

[Shelby65]

College economics are different. There’s still big time money in the bowl system that would be washed down the drain in the structure you describe. A 30-40 team super league couldn’t expand play off selection much beyond 12 without making the regular season a farce.

I also don’t think the Ohio States and Michigans of the BIG want to partner with the Alabamas and LSUs. Money talks, but only to an extent. Teams also look out for the future of their program development. Recruiting becomes harder overall on the blue blood schools up north in the super conference scenerio IMO. They are better off being powers in the BIG.

Like with the playoff system now, there would still be bowls. The better bowls would be the domain of the upper tier. The lesser bowls for the lower tier.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Like with the playoff system now, there would still be bowls. The better bowls would be the domain of the upper tier. The lesser bowls for the lower tier.

If it’s officially a separate system it would wash down the toilet economics wise. Would be like the NIT if it was a given that the bowls would feature low tier vs. low tier teams. There would be no media market for those games. The market now for the contracts lies in the potential for interesting match ups. If that’s stripped - it goes down the toilet.

Your argument basically lies in the media market for OSU vs Arkansas or Alabama vs Wisconsin (random examples) exploding relative to the market to watch Alabama vs Vandy or OSU vs Indiana to the point of overcoming this and then some. That’s what it would come down to - because at the end of the day, football season is only 12 games long. I don’t think the math would work out the way some prophesize. Wouldn’t be nearly enough elite regular season games added to move the needle that much. There aren’t more than 12 or so truly elite teams with national followings and even that’s pushing it. Those 12 teams are still playing the majority of their games against the other 18-28 teams that “make the cut” and the draw for those games isn’t going to be that much different from the current system. It’s based on how good the team is that year more than anything. If Rutgers or Indiana has a good team in a given year the draw to watch us vs a comparably competitive Michigan State or Wisconsin team play Alabama isn’t going to be that different on a national scale. The games elite teams play against super conference bottom feeders won’t draw as well as other games obviously. And someone always has to be a bottom feeder right? Every game has a loser.

 

[Shelby65]

There are low tier v low tier bowls now. Most NFL games aren’t elite matchups either.

FSU thinks it’s unfair to get the same payout as Syracuse. OSU will eventually feel the same way about Northwestern.

The solution is the NFL model. I think that’s where this is headed once the ACC tv rights expire.

 

[ScarletDave]

Until everyone with a technical shot at the college football playoff gets the same TV payout, there will always be movement. The Cowboys make the sane money as the Jaguars from the NFL TV deal. It’s the only way to stop this. As long as the Florida States and Clemsons see a greener grass, there will always be movement.

 

[ScarletDave]

The “FBS” and “FCS” will be restructured soon. Too many teams moving up. The College Football Playoff, INC (aka the acting “NCAA”, sanctioning body for college football) will create a “Playoff Division” and the “Championship Division” or something like that. The Playoff division teams will be the top 40-60 programs, split into conferences geographically, and they’ll all get the same payout. Same thing for everybody else in the Championship division.

What this will mean for RU, who will be almost undoubtedly left out of the blue blood playoff model, is we’ll be back playing Syracuse, Pitt, Boston College, UConn, etc. Honestly not the worst thing in the world, more regional rivals and winnable games.

MAYBE they would let the #1 team from the Championship level into the Playoff, but I doubt it.

 

[brgRC90]

If it’s officially a separate system it would wash down the toilet economics wise. Would be like the NIT if it was a given that the bowls would feature low tier vs. low tier teams. There would be no media market for those games. The market now for the contracts lies in the potential for interesting match ups. If that’s stripped - it goes down the toilet.

Your argument basically lies in the media market for OSU vs Arkansas or Alabama vs Wisconsin (random examples) exploding relative to the market to watch Alabama vs Vandy or OSU vs Indiana to the point of overcoming this and then some. That’s what it would come down to - because at the end of the day, football season is only 12 games long. I don’t think the math would work out the way some prophesize. Wouldn’t be nearly enough elite regular season games added to move the needle that much. There aren’t more than 12 or so truly elite teams with national followings and even that’s pushing it. Those 12 teams are still playing the majority of their games against the other 18-28 teams that “make the cut” and the draw for those games isn’t going to be that much different from the current system. It’s based on how good the team is that year more than anything. If Rutgers or Indiana has a good team in a given year the draw to watch us vs a comparably competitive Michigan State or Wisconsin team play Alabama isn’t going to be that different on a national scale. The games elite teams play against super conference bottom feeders won’t draw as well as other games obviously. And someone always has to be a bottom feeder right? Every game has a loser.

You're assuming, however, that everyone thinks rationally and with foresight, which we know is often not the case when $$$$$ starts flying around (and bonuses/raises are involved). I believe there's a good chance these fools will kill the goose that laid the golden egg. They're already doing things that pluck its feathers or rip off its legs. And consider that there's nobody looking out for the overall situation. The Big Ten (and all the others) is working for itself, not the benefit of college football. The situation for one conference or another might improve even as the whole thing is starting to crash down. College football needs programs that aren't huge but bring in viewers and interest, it needs Stanford, California, Oklahoma State, Boston College, UConn, Duke, Eastern Michigan, Ball St, etc. Without anyone to root for, however weak the prospects, without rivalries they care about, many millions of people will tune out to the sport altogether. Already they're being driven away with more on the way as their teams get totally marginalized and its getting worse, not better. If the two top programs in the ACC leave all the rest of the fans in the conference look at a future of nothing better than third rate bowl games. Who is going to want to follow a team for a season for that weak a** payoff? Yet it might happen and nobody is doing a thing to stop it.

 

[Nycrusupporter]

Like with the playoff system now, there would still be bowls. The better bowls would be the domain of the upper tier. The lesser bowls for the lower tier.

The NFL has plenty of cupcakes