Who has the advantage?
- Thread starter redlinehw
- Start date
At first I thought you meant the coaching staff and my reaction was also "what?" but presumably you mean the staff of this site?
I'll give you the breakdown for tomorrow from a PSU fan's eyes (albeit one that watches a LOT of Big Ten basketball)...
Pickett vs Mulcahy - big advantage PSU...Pickett should be a lock for 1st Team All Big-Ten and should show up somewhere on the 2nd or 3rd Team AA I'd think. Mulcahy is a solid Big Ten level starter.
Wynter vs Spencer - small advantage Rutgers...would have said bigger advantage for Rutgers a few weeks ago, but Spencer seems to have been struggling a bit as of late, as Wynter is finding his early season form again (and Rutgers made out much better in the portal with this one, as Wynter is one and done while Cam has another year).
Funk vs McConnell - small advantage Rutgers given Caleb's current state...really comes down to if you prefer offense or defense in some ways...I'd take a health McConnell any day, but if he's limited a bit, it becomes tougher. Funk can shoot it, but he's a bit of a liability at the defensive end.
Lundy vs Hyatt - medium to big advantage PSU...though I think that Lundy is a little overrated defensively, he's got the big advantage at the offensive end. I expect Hyatt to get some open looks tomorrow as PSU looks to help on Cliff, so his ability to hit some open 3's could be a big key to the game.
Njie vs Omoruyi - big advantage Rutgers...Njie is coming around a bit, but has no chance guarding a good big 1v1 in the post. Cliff will eat him up at the offensive end, and Njie offers nothing at this point in his development when PSU is on offense.
Pickett vs Mulcahy - big advantage PSU...Pickett should be a lock for 1st Team All Big-Ten and should show up somewhere on the 2nd or 3rd Team AA I'd think. Mulcahy is a solid Big Ten level starter.
Wynter vs Spencer - small advantage Rutgers...would have said bigger advantage for Rutgers a few weeks ago, but Spencer seems to have been struggling a bit as of late, as Wynter is finding his early season form again (and Rutgers made out much better in the portal with this one, as Wynter is one and done while Cam has another year).
Funk vs McConnell - small advantage Rutgers given Caleb's current state...really comes down to if you prefer offense or defense in some ways...I'd take a health McConnell any day, but if he's limited a bit, it becomes tougher. Funk can shoot it, but he's a bit of a liability at the defensive end.
Lundy vs Hyatt - medium to big advantage PSU...though I think that Lundy is a little overrated defensively, he's got the big advantage at the offensive end. I expect Hyatt to get some open looks tomorrow as PSU looks to help on Cliff, so his ability to hit some open 3's could be a big key to the game.
Njie vs Omoruyi - big advantage Rutgers...Njie is coming around a bit, but has no chance guarding a good big 1v1 in the post. Cliff will eat him up at the offensive end, and Njie offers nothing at this point in his development when PSU is on offense.
PSU -1 with no adjustments, and then maybe a point for Mag so PSU -2 if McConnell is good to go, and I assume he is after going 25 on Thursday night (though full disclosure that I didn't watch much of it to see if he was effective in those 25 minutes).
I think that Rutgers is better than they've been playing the last two weeks, though Mag obviously brought more to the floor than his stats would show so he's a tough one to quantify.
I had the line at basically exactly zero without adjustments (it was Rutgers by like 0.07 points or something).
I think the proper Mag adjustment is probably more than one point (perhaps 2) as the replacements are pretty sketchy.
Caleb seemed fine and was probably our best player against Michigan, though that is not exactly a ringing endorsement.
It might only be -2ish on paper but assuming we plan to stick with our lethal substitution plan it’s probably more like -5 or -6 and most of it getting absorbed in the MOV during that short block of time where we send 3 starters to the bench. Don’t misunderstand - this isn’t Mag individually but rather a simple lack of ability to hang in there without more than one of our main rotation guys. A domino effect of sorts. Subbing one at a time might not be the answer either - I have no idea. But there is enough data now to say with confidence that this sub pattern (around 12ish mark of the first half) has killed us since losing Mag and by more than 2 points on average, median, and really any metric you could look at.