Who will win? Good picks and score predictions....

ShrubDog

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Apr 13, 2008
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<font style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff">Auburn 21, Mississippi State 16:</font></span> Talk about ugly wins. Mississippi State won last season despite completing just five passes and finishing with 200 total yards. Neither offense is what you'd call dynamic this season, and both defenses are pretty salty. Sylvester Croom's club will keep this one close at home, but not close enough.

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<font style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Auburn (2-0) at Mississippi State (1-1)</span></font> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><font style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff"><font style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff">7:00 PM EST</font>
-- Auburn came up with a good 27-13 win over Southern Miss last weekend, but there's plenty of room for improvement, at least on offense. The Bad: four turnovers and multiple missteps. The Good: the defense held star USM RB Damion Fletcher to only 29 yards on 13 carries. Tiger QB Chris Todd had a decent day, and the special teams looked sharp. Now the Tigers have to start out SEC play on a high note with home showdowns against LSU and Tennessee to follow.</font></span></span>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><span class="xgrame"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">-- Mississippi State rebounded from a bad loss to Louisiana Tech</span></span> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">by beating Southeast Louisiana, 34-10. In 2007, Auburn outgained MSU both through the air and on the ground, but the Bulldogs pulled off a shocking 19-14 upset thanks to five turnovers and late defensive stand in the final seconds. With tough road dates against Georgia Tech and LSU to follow, MSU has to take advantage of the home game.
<span style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Auburn:</span> Todd appears to have secured the starting quarterback spot after completing 21-of-31 passes for 248 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions against USM. While Todd is a playmaker to build around, who he'll throw to is an issue. Auburn was already thin at wide receiver, and now Chris Slaughter has been suspended indefinitely for violating team rules. Fortunately, James Swinton will be back from a minor knee injury. Defensively, star DE Antonio Coleman twisted a knee against USM, but head coach Tommy Tuberville said it isn't serious.
<span style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Mississippi</span> <span style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">State:</span> <span class="xgrame">Sophomore</span> QB Wesley Carroll stopped throwing the ball to the other team and MSU won. After throwing three picks to Louisiana Tech, Carroll's job was in jeopardy. He came out hot against SE Louisiana completing 15-of-23 passes for 158 yards, and two touchdowns, and most importantly, there weren't any picks. There's some buzz in Starkville about WR Brandon McRae. The junior followed up on a good opening week with eight catches for 72 yards and a touchdown against SLU. Preseason All-American safety Derek Pegues returned from his one game suspension and played well.</span></p> <p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Auburn</span> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">has to…</span> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">cut down on the turnovers. Five cost the Tigers this game in 2007, and four last Saturday against Southern Miss sent up warning flags. Chris Todd doesn't have to be perfect. He has to stay away from throwing picks and he must make the talented Bulldog defense respect the pass. RB Ben Tate and company will have to run a bit better than last week (132 yards), but the Tigers don't have to put up big numbers to win. They just can't put the ball on the ground.</span></p> <p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Mississippi</span> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">State has to …</span> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">play even better defense. MSU lost star LB Jamar Chaney for the season with a broken ankle in week one, but the Bulldogs held the Lions to 148 total yards last week and has been playing in midseason form. Even after a decent performance last week, Auburn's passing offense isn't anything special and can be shut down. If MSU can win the turnover battle and make Todd force his passes in his first conference start, the Bulldogs could capture their second consecutive win against AU.</span></p> <p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Keep an eye on …</span> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">MSU RB Anthony Dixon. After MSU rushed for just 82 total yards in the opening loss to Louisiana Tech (of which Dixon accounted for 80), the Bulldogs ran for 216 last week. Dixon notched another 80 yards and two scores on 18 carries, and backup Christian Ducre had a good day in reserve. They make an inexperienced and suspect offensive line look solid.</span></p> <p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">The number to know:</span> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">5. Again, that's how many turnovers a sloppy Auburn team surrender</span></p>
<span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">PREDICTION
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Auburn (2-0) at Mississippi State (1-1)</font><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">, 7:00 EST ESPN2
Why to watch: Auburn had won six in a row against Mississippi State by a score 208 to 55, and then came last year. The Bulldogs were put on the map under head coach Sylvester Croom with a stunning 19-14 win at Auburn, and after a rough start to this season, another upset could be a must to get to a second straight bowl game. MSU started out the season with a 22-14 loss to Louisiana Tech before beating SE Louisiana 34-10, and with road dates at Georgia Tech, LSU and Tennessee over the next four games (there's a home date against Vanderbilt mixed in), this might not be a good stretch if the offense continues to sputter. Auburn has been fantastic. The offense has done just enough to get by in wins over UL Monroe and Southern Miss, while the defense has been dominant. The Tigers get LSU and Tennessee at home over the next two weeks, so while this might be a revenge game, the temptation might be there to look ahead.
Why Auburn might win: Southern Miss ran for 427 yards and five touchdowns in its season-opening blowout win over UL Lafayette. Auburn held Damion Fletcher and the Golden Eagles to 37 yards on 27 carries. The Mississippi State passing game has cranked out some yards, but it also gave up three interceptions in the loss to Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs have to run to win, and that's not going to happen against a Tiger defensive front that's in midseason form. That means the MSU passing game will have to be efficient and effective, and it's not likely to be either
Why Mississippi State might win: The Mississippi State formula is simple. Run the ball, get stellar defense, force turnovers, win the game. MSU was able to run relatively well in last season's game, getting 103 yards from Anthony Dixon, but the key was the turnover margin. Auburn threw three interceptions and lost two fumbles, and MSU turned it over just once. Last week, Southern Miss was able to stay alive last week because of four Auburn turnovers. The Tigers are still trying to get their new offense up to speed, and there will be chances for takeaways. MSU has to take advantage.
Who to watch: Mississippi State LB Jamar Chaney was a terror last season. The team's best run defender came up with eight tackles and a tackle for loss against Auburn, and he would've been a key player to sniff out the Auburn spread attack. Now he's gone for the year with a broken leg suffered in the season opener against Louisiana Tech. It'll be up to redshirt freshman Jamie Jones to play like a veteran in the middle. He made just one tackle last week.
What will happen: Auburn will keep the Mississippi State running game to under 100 yards and will force at least three turnovers. The Tiger offense won't be sharp, but it'll come with the key drives it needs to keep the Bulldogs at arm's length.
CFN Prediction: <font color="#3333FF" size="4">Auburn 23 … Mississippi State 6</font> ... Line: Auburn -10.5
Must See Rating: (5 Hole in the Wall - 1 First Blood) … 3.5</span></font></span>
 

RebelBruiser

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Aug 21, 2007
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I agree the Under is the best bet on this game. The only way the game goes over is if the offenses give away points to the defenses or there are special teams scores. I don't see either offense rolling it up and down the field. It could be a punt fest.