Why are we favored?

[Ewooc]

I believed a stat was listed during the game on Sat that basically stated we are the favorite to win the rest of our games this year. That was a bit shocking to see. I am not one to argue with Vegas odds makers, they don't make billions for no reason.... but have they not watched Nebraska this year?
Last I checked we are -9 fav against NW. I understand home field give a bit of advantage but 9, really?I believe even a 3 pt fav over mich st.We are 4th fav, slightly behind wisc to win the conference championship even.
So what are the odds makers seeing that I am not? We are a 3-4 team that has looked horrible at times,continues to find new ways to lose, we have the worst pass D in the land. Besides last week, we could have easily lost every game the rest of the way.
Is it simply our run D that is giving us the benefit? Since the BIG10 doesn't have the highest quality of passing teams. I can see that for everyone but Mich St. Cook is a very good QB passing and running. I just can't imagine we could be the fav in this game. Thoughts as to the reasoning?

 

[JustwinNU3]

We have the potential to be a potent team on offense. Meaning we can put enough points to hang with any team im guessing . Yes the Defense is Questionable. If team decide to line up and pass pass pass things could go bad. I could see iowa which is normally ground attack team throwing on us 30-40 times . I can see us winning every game remaining and i can also see us losing every game as well. lol

 

[BornNBredRed]

We should be 7-0 right now and Vegas sees that potential. Northwestern is getting much worse, while we are getting better.

 

[Cornicator]

I believed a stat was listed during the game on Sat that basically stated we are the favorite to win the rest of our games this year. That was a bit shocking to see. I am not one to argue with Vegas odds makers, they don't make billions for no reason.... but have they not watched Nebraska this year?
Last I checked we are -9 fav against NW. I understand home field give a bit of advantage but 9, really?I believe even a 3 pt fav over mich st.We are 4th fav, slightly behind wisc to win the conference championship even.
So what are the odds makers seeing that I am not? We are a 3-4 team that has looked horrible at times,continues to find new ways to lose, we have the worst pass D in the land. Besides last week, we could have easily lost every game the rest of the way.
Is it simply our run D that is giving us the benefit? Since the BIG10 doesn't have the highest quality of passing teams. I can see that for everyone but Mich St. Cook is a very good QB passing and running. I just can't imagine we could be the fav in this game. Thoughts as to the reasoning?

- There are something like 19 FBS level college football programs with at least 4 losses. Nebraska is the only 1 of those 19 teams that averages more points per game, 33 ppg, than they're allowing, 24.1.

As for the stat you brought up about the ESPN Prediction computer, it actually had Michigan State as a favorite.

- Also, consider the following players have all missed major action this season:

- Banderas - 5 games
- DPE 4 games
- Rose Ivey- 6 games
- Freedom - 4 games
- Carter- 2 games
- Kevin Williams - 4 games
- Maurice - 5 games
- Vince Valentine - 3 games

By next week, there is a very good chance all 7 of those players will be on the field at the same time... for the first time all season.

 

[Tulsa Tom_rivals17485]

Injuries...NW makes the injuries we have experienced laughable...and they have zero room for error.

 

[otismotis08]

We are Nebraska.

 

[Nebraska Gator II]

I believed a stat was listed during the game on Sat that basically stated we are the favorite to win the rest of our games this year. That was a bit shocking to see. I am not one to argue with Vegas odds makers, they don't make billions for no reason.... but have they not watched Nebraska this year?
Last I checked we are -9 fav against NW. I understand home field give a bit of advantage but 9, really?I believe even a 3 pt fav over mich st.We are 4th fav, slightly behind wisc to win the conference championship even.
So what are the odds makers seeing that I am not? We are a 3-4 team that has looked horrible at times,continues to find new ways to lose, we have the worst pass D in the land. Besides last week, we could have easily lost every game the rest of the way.
Is it simply our run D that is giving us the benefit? Since the BIG10 doesn't have the highest quality of passing teams. I can see that for everyone but Mich St. Cook is a very good QB passing and running. I just can't imagine we could be the fav in this game. Thoughts as to the reasoning?

Vegas makes money by trying to get even money on both sides of the line. You basically bet 11 to win 10. That is how Vegas makes money. The line moving is trying to get even money on both sides. Nebraska looked good last week and Northwestern has been blown out the past two weeks. That is a reason the line is high. It is going to be a task to get people to bet on Northwestern after the past two weeks. People always confuse betting lines in football. It is not about who Vegas thinks will win, it is about public perception. Sometimes the lines end up pretty close...other times they are nowhere close.

It is not a surprise that Nebraska would be considered a favorite in every game except probably Michigan State from here on out. Nebraska's toughest opponents are at home and the road games are against junk teams.

 

[Tulsa Tom_rivals17485]

I believed a stat was listed during the game on Sat that basically stated we are the favorite to win the rest of our games this year. That was a bit shocking to see. I am not one to argue with Vegas odds makers, they don't make billions for no reason.... but have they not watched Nebraska this year?
Last I checked we are -9 fav against NW. I understand home field give a bit of advantage but 9, really?I believe even a 3 pt fav over mich st.We are 4th fav, slightly behind wisc to win the conference championship even.
So what are the odds makers seeing that I am not? We are a 3-4 team that has looked horrible at times,continues to find new ways to lose, we have the worst pass D in the land. Besides last week, we could have easily lost every game the rest of the way.
Is it simply our run D that is giving us the benefit? Since the BIG10 doesn't have the highest quality of passing teams. I can see that for everyone but Mich St. Cook is a very good QB passing and running. I just can't imagine we could be the fav in this game. Thoughts as to the reasoning?

Talent...there may end up being only two games this year where the other team is favored over us...Miami and Mich. State. (Minnesota was either a pick em or a slight Minnesota edge...we would have been favored on a neutral field).

 

[NikkiSixx_rivals269993]

I have always thought that we would start off a little slow this year, but get better as time went on. Last Saturday showed me the most complete game we have put together yet, but it can and should still get better.

The guys can build on what they have been through and continue to improve. The coaching staff will also continue to improve. They had to learn a lot of new faces and still haven't been here even a year yet.

The team should be playing excellent football here in the back half of the season.

Does this mean ESPN or Vegas thinks what I do? I don't know about that, but when you have a new system, coaches, & players, it does take a little more time.

We need to continue to bring it each and every week from here on out.

 

[nebcountry]

Not being ugly, there's a difference between being "favored" to win and actually winning. There are different statistically based analytics out there like FPI, FEI, S&P+(?), and probably others. They use statistics to crank out an expected winner, # of wins, all kinds of things. Even if we were 51% expected to win, we would still be considered the "favorite". The statistics are not infallible and don't guarantee a winner.

With that being said, I think some of these models are showing around 3 or so more wins for our season. Hopefully we prove the statistics wrong.

 

[ATL_husker1]

Vegas makes money by trying to get even money on both sides of the line. You basically bet 11 to win 10. That is how Vegas makes money. The line moving is trying to get even money on both sides. Nebraska looked good last week and Northwestern has been blown out the past two weeks. That is a reason the line is high. It is going to be a task to get people to bet on Northwestern after the past two weeks. People always confuse betting lines in football. It is not about who Vegas thinks will win, it is about public perception. Sometimes the lines end up pretty close...other times they are nowhere close.

It is not a surprise that Nebraska would be considered a favorite in every game except probably Michigan State from here on out. Nebraska's toughest opponents are at home and the road games are against junk teams.

Those "junk" teams both definitely have the potential to beat this Nebraska team. If you doubt that, rewatch the Illinois game.

 

[Nebraska Gator II]

Those "junk" teams both definitely have the potential to beat this Nebraska team. If you doubt that, rewatch the Illinois game.

Anything can happen, but I don't think so. Nebraska's schedule lines up pretty well down the stretch.

 

[SilentCommit]

If Nebraska can deliver another solid performance and victory on Saturday, we'll have something. IMHO as big as last week's win was, this week is just as important for the team's development and confidence.

 

[jlb321_rivals110621]

vegas doesn't set lines based on who they think is the better team by how many points

the line is set in order to get even money on both sides .... if the betting is weighted to one side or the other the line is adjusted to approach even money

the current line is where vegas thinks that 1/2 the money with be on Neb and 1/2 on NW

 

[jteten]

Don't care. Let's just win.