PMs me when Todd's topic is finally closed with Subject - "You're wrong". Great title**
First, it is ludicrous.
Sabermetrics is what says that you break up the lineup and don't hit 3 lefties in a row -- not "tradition". You either have to be on the sabermetric bandwagon or off -- you can't have your cake and eat it too. You love to use it to support your ****ing theory(which is correct) -- yet you are going 180 against that same very basic truth on this. Irony much?
You also fail to mention in your assessment of Detz last season that he also produced 32 rbis from the 3-hole compared to 21 rbis for the 5-hole hitter despite that "lack of power"(the 5-hole guy had 3 bombs good for 2nd on the team) -- his total run production was 10% less runs than the 4-hole hitter despite 20% less total bases -- again confirming that he's excellent with RISP.
Detz has been our best hitter thusfar. He almost never leaves ducks on the pond -- and rarely strikes out over the course of his career(1 in 7 ab last year). The same can not be said for Renfroe or Rea at this point in time, who combined to strike out almost 30% of all ab's last year. Both may be great at getting RBIs -- but both should be considered liabilities to big innings as well when they hitting back to back -- which is just ANOTHER reason that you don't hit them directly before/after each other.
To assume that "Renfroe is our best hitter" is a stretch at this point in reality. It's strictly theoretical based on a high ceiling, which is taking him a long time to find. Detz has 6 more RBI than Renfroe in only 3 additional plate appearances. How do you explain that to me and with a straight face try to tell me that Renfroe is currently the "better hitter" -- when Detz has had superior run production?
In Summary:
Will James "100% efficient" model:
- hit 3 contact lefties with gap power in a row
- follow those by 2 righties with homerun power that are K liabilities -- potentially 3 if Slauter hits 6th.
He's all about big innings -- except when his lineup provides an increased likelihood that those big innings don't happen.
Practically everyone else:
- hit 2 contact lefties with speed and gap power
- hit righty with homerun power, speed, and a K liability
- Hit a contact lefty with gap power
- hit righty with homerun power -- speed and K liability
Not only that, let's look more closely at personal stats for the two players in question -- since a big piece of this puzzle is figuring out where in the lineup players are "most comfortable" -- and that is universal in SABR and traditional lineups.
Renfroe:
4-7 with 4 rbi from 3 hole
2-11 with 2 rbi from 4 hole
4-12 with 3 rbi from 5 hole
3-5 with 1 rbi from 6 hole
Detz:
5-13 2rbi 3 hole
6-8 7 rbi 4 hole
0-2 5 hole
2-7 2 rbi 6 hole
4-7 5 rbi 7 hole
0-1 8 hole
Will James said:
First, it is ludicrous.
Sabermetrics is what says that you break up the lineup and don't hit 3 lefties in a row -- not "tradition". You either have to be on the sabermetric bandwagon or off -- you can't have your cake and eat it too. You love to use it to support your ****ing theory(which is correct) -- yet you are going 180 against that same very basic truth on this. Irony much?
You also fail to mention in your assessment of Detz last season that he also produced 32 rbis from the 3-hole compared to 21 rbis for the 5-hole hitter despite that "lack of power"(the 5-hole guy had 3 bombs good for 2nd on the team) -- his total run production was 10% less runs than the 4-hole hitter despite 20% less total bases -- again confirming that he's excellent with RISP.
Detz has been our best hitter thusfar. He almost never leaves ducks on the pond -- and rarely strikes out over the course of his career(1 in 7 ab last year). The same can not be said for Renfroe or Rea at this point in time, who combined to strike out almost 30% of all ab's last year. Both may be great at getting RBIs -- but both should be considered liabilities to big innings as well when they hitting back to back -- which is just ANOTHER reason that you don't hit them directly before/after each other.
To assume that "Renfroe is our best hitter" is a stretch at this point in reality. It's strictly theoretical based on a high ceiling, which is taking him a long time to find. Detz has 6 more RBI than Renfroe in only 3 additional plate appearances. How do you explain that to me and with a straight face try to tell me that Renfroe is currently the "better hitter" -- when Detz has had superior run production?
In Summary:
Will James "100% efficient" model:
- hit 3 contact lefties with gap power in a row
- follow those by 2 righties with homerun power that are K liabilities -- potentially 3 if Slauter hits 6th.
He's all about big innings -- except when his lineup provides an increased likelihood that those big innings don't happen.
Practically everyone else:
- hit 2 contact lefties with speed and gap power
- hit righty with homerun power, speed, and a K liability
- Hit a contact lefty with gap power
- hit righty with homerun power -- speed and K liability
Not only that, let's look more closely at personal stats for the two players in question -- since a big piece of this puzzle is figuring out where in the lineup players are "most comfortable" -- and that is universal in SABR and traditional lineups.
Renfroe:
4-7 with 4 rbi from 3 hole
2-11 with 2 rbi from 4 hole
4-12 with 3 rbi from 5 hole
3-5 with 1 rbi from 6 hole
Detz:
5-13 2rbi 3 hole
6-8 7 rbi 4 hole
0-2 5 hole
2-7 2 rbi 6 hole
4-7 5 rbi 7 hole
0-1 8 hole