With good defense, would we be a regional host?

[anon1758050382]

If you look at our hitting and pitching stats alone, it's hard to believe we have a losing conference record.

stat (SEC only)	State	SEC opponents
batting average	.273	.247
on-base percentage	.360	.326
slugging percentage	.467	.416
ops	.827	.742
hits	133	119
doubles	32	20
home runs	21	19
walks (offensive)	57	51
hit by pitch (offensive)	14	8
strikeouts (offensive)	137	148
earned run average	5.15	5.34
whip	1.37	1.48

So how are we 5-10?

stat (SEC only)	State	SEC opponents
fielding percentage	.962	.990*
unearned runs (offensive)	4	14
grounded into double play (offensive)	12	6
stolen bases-attempts (offensive)	4-7	25-29

*-We also need our opponent to kick the ball around more. The best team fielding percentage in the SEC is Texas at .985.

 

[HailStout]

We definitely would have won a few more games with some better fielding

 

[karlchilders.sixpack]

That , plus more timely hits.
And hitting into fewer double plays.

 

[patdog]

No.

 

[mcdawg22]

I think we lost 4 games where defense cost us a mid-late lead. Some of those games were earlier in the season when our bullpen wasn’t settled so who knows what would have happened. But potentially we could have taken one in Houston and 3 other SEC games. That would be close to hosting. But as Karl said there were several other games on the line in the 9th where we could have plated men on that would have won games.

But I feel like this is Deja Vu from a year ago. All the stats presented are great, but the one stat that wins games is runs and in SEC play we are 11th in runs.

 

[Perd Hapley]

If you look at our hitting and pitching stats alone, it's hard to believe we have a losing conference record.

stat (SEC only)	State	SEC opponents
batting average	.273	.247
on-base percentage	.360	.326
slugging percentage	.467	.416
ops	.827	.742
hits	133	119
doubles	32	20
home runs	21	19
walks (offensive)	57	51
hit by pitch (offensive)	14	8
strikeouts (offensive)	137	148
earned run average	5.15	5.34
whip	1.37	1.48

So how are we 5-10?

stat (SEC only)	State	SEC opponents
fielding percentage	.962	.990*
unearned runs (offensive)	4	14
grounded into double play (offensive)	12	6
stolen bases-attempts (offensive)	4-7	25-29

*-We also need our opponent to kick the ball around more. The best team fielding percentage in the SEC is Texas at .985.

I’m going with “not enough information to reach a conclusion”.

Unearned runs don’t only happen because of errors. Say there are 2 outs and nobody on, then SS boots a ball. Man on 1st. The next 5 hitters all hit HR’s. All 6 of those runs are unearned, because without the error, the inning is over with zero runs scored. But that doesn’t change the fact that the pitching was as bad as it possibly could have been for the next 5 at-bats. You can’t just say that you’re not going to blame the pitching at all, even if runs are unearned.

To truly answer the question, you need to know how many of those unearned runs happened in losses, what the margin of the loss was, and what the pitching did after the error. You also need to know what other mistakes happened, on both sides, like baserunning, etc., to know what else played a factor.

Sight unseen, I’d be a lot more worried about the 25-29 on stolen base attempts against us that I would be about us making less than 1 error per game more than our opponents.

 

[anon1758050382]

Unearned runs don’t only happen because of errors. Say there are 2 outs and nobody on, then SS boots a ball. Man on 1st. The next 5 hitters all hit HR’s. All 6 of those runs are unearned, because without the error, the inning is over with zero runs scored. But that doesn’t change the fact that the pitching was as bad as it possibly could have been for the next 5 at-bats. You can’t just say that you’re not going to blame the pitching at all, even if runs are unearned.

That could explain the unearned runs, but it doesn't explain being better than our SEC opponents in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, ops, hits, doubles, home runs, walks, hit by pitch, strikeouts, whip, and STILL winning only 33.3% of our SEC games.

 

[ETK99]

If Lemonis wasn't our coach, would we be hosting?

 

[Perd Hapley]

That could explain the unearned runs, but it doesn't explain being better than our SEC opponents in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, ops, hits, doubles, home runs, walks, hit by pitch, strikeouts, whip, and STILL winning only 33.3% of our SEC games.

Are the stats shown for SEC opponents their average numbers against all SEC teams, or just their numbers against MSU?

 

[anon1758050382]

Are the stats shown for SEC opponents their average numbers against all SEC teams, or just their numbers against MSU?

SEC opponent stats in games against State.

For example, in 15 SEC games, we've hit 21 home runs and given up 19 home runs.

 

[mcdawg22]

That could explain the unearned runs, but it doesn't explain being better than our SEC opponents in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, ops, hits, doubles, home runs, walks, hit by pitch, strikeouts, whip, and STILL winning only 33.3% of our SEC games.

If you have a double, an infield single, and a walk followed by 3 SOs in every inning, you would have a .400 average, a .500 OBP, a .600 slugging percentage, and an 1.100 OPS, (I think the math is right) with zero runs.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

Yes this team would be top 16 seed with an average defense. We have easily lost 2-3 SEC games because of defense.

 

[anon1758050382]

If you have a double, an infield single, and a walk followed by 3 SOs in every inning, you would have a .400 average, a .500 OBP, a .600 slugging percentage, and an 1.100 OPS, (I think the math is right) with zero runs.

Your math is right, but has that (or something similar) happened enough to explain our stats?

 

[Perd Hapley]

SEC opponent stats in games against State.

For example, in 15 SEC games, we've hit 21 home runs and given up 19 home runs.

Ok. Then ultimately I’d ask what does the earned run comparison look like?

Overall, the stats say that pitching and offense are slightly better….but not significantly better in any area. Its pretty even, honestly. I’d also note that 5 of our 10 losses are by 3 runs or more. It’s hard to see just 1 or 2 errors by themselves (without any bad pitching afterwards) in any of those games being a major factor.

Without a ton of research, I’d say from just the non-scoring stats that we should be either 8-7 or 7-8, depending on how the ball bounced along the way. If better defense got us 2-3 more wins out of the 5 where it would have made a difference…..we’d be in that 8-7 or 7-8 zone. And to answer your question, we’d feel better about things, but we’d still be nowhere close to the path to hosting. This is a team that needs 19-20 SEC wins to host, given our crappy nonconference schedule and the fact that we drew both Mizzou and South Carolina in-conference. Would you put any faith in an 11-4 finish from here? I sure as hell wouldn’t.

 

[anon1758050382]

Ok. Then ultimately I’d ask what does the earned run comparison look like?

71 earned runs allowed, 76 earned runs allowed by opposing pitchers

I’m also considering that our first half competition was better (we think ) than our second half competition. So my speculation is that with a good defense, we’d be above .500 in the league and improve upon that record in the second half of the SEC season.

And it’s not just errors. Allowing our opponents to steal and not turning double plays are big factors, too.

 

[8dog]

In sec play We have lost 3 games scoring 3 runs. We have lost 3 games scoring 1 run. It’s always something. 6 losses with 3 runs
Or fewer. 1 of them was a 7 inning game

 

[Perd Hapley]

71 earned runs allowed, 76 earned runs allowed by opposing pitchers

I’m also considering that our first half competition was better (we think ) than our second half competition. So my speculation is that with a good defense, we’d be above .500 in the league and improve upon that record in the second half of the SEC season.

And it’s not just errors. Allowing our opponents to steal and not turning double plays are big factors, too.

One major answer to your riddle is the 2nd game against Oklahoma. In that game, we lost 13-11, and committed 5 errors to their zero. The 5 errors led to 5 unearned runs for OU. If we commit only 1 or 2 errors in that game, we win. That’s ONE game that is definitely different with better defense. That’s an outlier game though that probably has an outsized negative impact on our fielding %.

Game 1 against Texas, we committed 1 error that led to one unearned run. Earned runs were knotted at 7 apiece in that one. That one is a complete tossup if we win that or not without the error.

The other 8 losses, we allowed more earned runs than we scored. No impact from errors.

Overall, we are 3-6 when we commit more errors than our opponent.

We are 1-2 when we commit the same number of errors as our important.

We are 1-2 when we commit fewer errors than our opponent.

Literally the same winning percentage regardless of whether we are better, worse, or the same as our opponent defensively.

We have an average margin of victory of 5.3 runs per game, and average margin of defeat of 3.1 runs per game. We’ve won big a few times and lost small a lot of times. That makes our offense look better on paper than it actually is.

Put all together, and the errors and fielding % are pretty much non-factors. If we were the best defensive team in the SEC, we’d still just be (maybe) 6-9 or 7-8 right now. The defense is not even in the top 3 reasons why we aren’t host worthy.

 

[mcdawg22]

In sec play We have lost 3 games scoring 3 runs. We have lost 3 games scoring 1 run. It’s always something. 6 losses with 3 runs
Or fewer. 1 of them was a 7 inning game

Also in our 10 losses we had more hits than the other team in 3 games and the same amount of hits in 3 games. Kind of a chicken and egg situation. We are 11th in runs despite being 5th in BA, but we are second to last in unearned runs. I think it’s a bit of both.

 

[HotMop]

Another **** error gave up a run.

 

[NukeDogg]

Not host worthy, no. Still too shallow at P and not enough hitting.

 

[Rezdog]

No, this team finds ways to lose games.

 

[paindonthurt]

Ok. Then ultimately I’d ask what does the earned run comparison look like?

Overall, the stats say that pitching and offense are slightly better….but not significantly better in any area. Its pretty even, honestly. I’d also note that 5 of our 10 losses are by 3 runs or more. It’s hard to see just 1 or 2 errors by themselves (without any bad pitching afterwards) in any of those games being a major factor.

Without a ton of research, I’d say from just the non-scoring stats that we should be either 8-7 or 7-8, depending on how the ball bounced along the way. If better defense got us 2-3 more wins out of the 5 where it would have made a difference…..we’d be in that 8-7 or 7-8 zone. And to answer your question, we’d feel better about things, but we’d still be nowhere close to the path to hosting. This is a team that needs 19-20 SEC wins to host, given our crappy nonconference schedule and the fact that we drew both Mizzou and South Carolina in-conference. Would you put any faith in an 11-4 finish from here? I sure as hell wouldn’t.

If 3 sec games are won due to what he’s saying, we are 8-7.
You only need to be 7-8 or 8-7 right now to be in the hosting convo.

leading up to this weekend.

 

[paindonthurt]

One major answer to your riddle is the 2nd game against Oklahoma. In that game, we lost 13-11, and committed 5 errors to their zero. The 5 errors led to 5 unearned runs for OU. If we commit only 1 or 2 errors in that game, we win. That’s ONE game that is definitely different with better defense. That’s an outlier game though that probably has an outsized negative impact on our fielding %.

Game 1 against Texas, we committed 1 error that led to one unearned run. Earned runs were knotted at 7 apiece in that one. That one is a complete tossup if we win that or not without the error.

The other 8 losses, we allowed more earned runs than we scored. No impact from errors.

Overall, we are 3-6 when we commit more errors than our opponent.

We are 1-2 when we commit the same number of errors as our important.

We are 1-2 when we commit fewer errors than our opponent.

Literally the same winning percentage regardless of whether we are better, worse, or the same as our opponent defensively.

We have an average margin of victory of 5.3 runs per game, and average margin of defeat of 3.1 runs per game. We’ve won big a few times and lost small a lot of times. That makes our offense look better on paper than it actually is.

Put all together, and the errors and fielding % are pretty much non-factors. If we were the best defensive team in the SEC, we’d still just be (maybe) 6-9 or 7-8 right now. The defense is not even in the top 3 reasons why we aren’t host worthy.

7-8 going into this weekend would feel pretty damn good.

 

[patdog]

If 3 sec games are won due to what he’s saying, we are 8-7.
You only need to be 7-8 or 8-7 right now to be in the hosting convo.

leading up to this weekend.

If, if, if. Bottom line is this team just isn't good enough and player development and in-game coaching decisions are questionable at best.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

When the analytics say fielding doesn’t matter, they are assuming you can make routine plays. We can’t.

So yeah, basic fundamental baseball probably wins us a few more games.

 

[paindonthurt]

If, if, if. Bottom line is this team just isn't good enough and player development and in-game coaching decisions are questionable at best.

I’m just simply pointing out to Perd that 7-8 or 8-7 would put us in a good spot. He kind of implied the original posters point would only get us to 7-8 or 8-7.

well that makes him right IF.

 

[Seinfeld]

No, this team finds ways to lose games.

For the 3rd season in 4 years. That’s a coaching problem, and I’ve got nothing left to say to the fans that think we still need to calm down and see what happens. This story is written

 

[Perd Hapley]

If 3 sec games are won due to what he’s saying, we are 8-7.
You only need to be 7-8 or 8-7 right now to be in the hosting convo.

leading up to this weekend.

The thing is we wouldn’t have won 3 more.

Based on the premise of the post, the most it could have been was 2 more, likely only 1 more, possibly zero more.

And again. we’d be nowhere close to the hosting discussion even with 2 more wins. Our RPI heading into the weekend was barely Top 40. Nonconference schedule sucked. This is a team / schedule that needs 20 SEC wins to host. We’re nowhere close to that at 7-8, 8-7, 6-9, etc.

 

[anon1758050382]

To put this in perspective, Florida now has the same record as State. These are their stats, even after destroying us yesterday:

stat (SEC only)	Florida	Florida's SEC opponents
batting average	.267	.289
on-base percentage	.364	.401
slugging percentage	.434	.523
ops	.798	.924
hits	138	148
doubles	22	32
home runs	20	28
walks (offensive)	63	88
hit by pitch (offensive)	17	14
strikeouts (offensive)	145	151
earned run average	7.83	5.37
whip	1.80	1.52

 

[Perd Hapley]

To put this in perspective, Florida now has the same record as State. These are their stats, even after destroying us yesterday:

stat (SEC only)	Florida	Florida's SEC opponents
batting average	.267	.289
on-base percentage	.364	.401
slugging percentage	.434	.523
ops	.798	.924
hits	138	148
doubles	22	32
home runs	20	28
walks (offensive)	63	88
hit by pitch (offensive)	17	14
strikeouts (offensive)	145	151
earned run average	7.83	5.37
whip	1.80	1.52

Sooooo…..their pitching totally sucks. A little bit different story from us. We’re below average at everything, but not horrible at anything. Our suckitude is just more well rounded than theirs.

 

[mcdawg22]

Also in our 10 losses we had more hits than the other team in 3 games and the same amount of hits in 3 games. Kind of a chicken and egg situation. We are 11th in runs despite being 5th in BA, but we are second to last in unearned runs. I think it’s a bit of both.