No way we cover that spread....hell we might not win! You better load up, because after the first game Vegas will adjust.
WOW! MSU -8 to Troy
- Thread starter Skint Dawg
- Start date
I think we will win this one.
They return some scorers from last year, but all the sports websites I've seen are projecting them to finish 4th or 5th in their divison and in the lower end overall in the Sun Belt. I'll be interested to see how we do in this game. Opening game on the road against a team we should beat. Should tell us a lot about the mindset of this team. If we cover the spread I'll be pleasantly surprised because I expect it to be close.
They return some scorers from last year, but all the sports websites I've seen are projecting them to finish 4th or 5th in their divison and in the lower end overall in the Sun Belt. I'll be interested to see how we do in this game. Opening game on the road against a team we should beat. Should tell us a lot about the mindset of this team. If we cover the spread I'll be pleasantly surprised because I expect it to be close.
Yet again, there is virtually no chance we only win 5-7 games. We'll go 1-2 in Hawai'i (d2 Chaminade) and we'll obviously beat d2 New Orleans, and SWAC teams Alabama A&M and Alcorn State. That's 4 guaranteed wins there.
Then you have home games Florida Atlantic (10-19 Sun Belt) and UTSA (16-14 Southland - 198 RPI), and the Jackson game against Central Arkansas (6-20 Southland). We'll probably beat Troy (9-18 Sun Belt) tomorrow and Loyola (6-23 Horizon) on the road. Absolutely worst case in those five is 3-2, and 4-1 and 5-0 are both more likely.
We won't literally go 0-18 in the SEC -- no one ever does. Home games against South Carolina, Texas A&M, and Auburn are all games we have better than a 50% chance in.
I know it's cool to pile on Rick Ray and call him Croom despite only one similarity, but you're taking it way too far. We won't be a good team this year, but we'll have double digit wins. Etch it.
Then you have home games Florida Atlantic (10-19 Sun Belt) and UTSA (16-14 Southland - 198 RPI), and the Jackson game against Central Arkansas (6-20 Southland). We'll probably beat Troy (9-18 Sun Belt) tomorrow and Loyola (6-23 Horizon) on the road. Absolutely worst case in those five is 3-2, and 4-1 and 5-0 are both more likely.
We won't literally go 0-18 in the SEC -- no one ever does. Home games against South Carolina, Texas A&M, and Auburn are all games we have better than a 50% chance in.
I know it's cool to pile on Rick Ray and call him Croom despite only one similarity, but you're taking it way too far. We won't be a good team this year, but we'll have double digit wins. Etch it.
Here is the problem with your analysis....those teams are better than us. It is really hard to compete with 8 scholarship players, especially when 6 of them are newcomers. We are going to lose some games early that we shouldnt because of lack of experience. We are going to get out rebounded in every game we play and we have no point guard. I hate to say it, because I'm normally the most optimistic bulldog fan out there, but this is going to be the worst season of basketball we have ever had IMO.
He will get to double digit wins.
We will win 3-5 in conference and our nonconference schedule is a joke after the Maui Invitational. I think we win 6 out of New Orleans, Alabama A&M, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Troy, Florida Atlantic, UTSA, and Loyola Chicago. That puts us at 9-11 wins in my opinion. We may not have a lot of depth, but there are some SEC players on our squad. I think if we cut down on turnovers and hustle for 40 minutes we will win double digit games.
We will win 3-5 in conference and our nonconference schedule is a joke after the Maui Invitational. I think we win 6 out of New Orleans, Alabama A&M, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Troy, Florida Atlantic, UTSA, and Loyola Chicago. That puts us at 9-11 wins in my opinion. We may not have a lot of depth, but there are some SEC players on our squad. I think if we cut down on turnovers and hustle for 40 minutes we will win double digit games.
-When have State basketball players ever gotten markedly better with "experience"? The only examples are those with tremendous personal work ethic, like Swat and Moultrie, who both got better in spite of coaching not because of it.
-Those teams are not better than us.
-The newcomers part, you are probably right. The scholarship players part? No. Not really. Mizzou was one of the best teams in the country last year with 8 scholarship players. We have actually only been 7-deep for most part in 2 of the past 3 years.
-We will be a better rebounding team this year than we have been in most recent years. A TON of rebounding is effort and blocking out. This year, I expect us to actually do those things a good bit.
-True on the point guard issue. That is the most glaring weakness overall, IMO. Craig Sword will be ok in the role eventually, I hope...
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I think you're right. Also, I think our team has some talent although young and inexperienced. I'm not saying we have depth, because we don't, but let's not forget Stansbury made several runs at the tourney while only playing 7 guys significant minutes. And they were unconditioned. These 18 year olds will be forced to play a ton of minutes, which will hurt in the long run, but if conditioned I don't see depth being as huge of an issue as some make it out to be. Ray will just have to make good use of timeouts, and he will have to adjust our tempo at times in order to save energy. We'll suck, but I think these guys will be fun to watch at times. I would love to see Ray land a good big man or two this coming year to add to these talented shooters.
-When have State basketball players ever gotten markedly better with "experience"? The only examples are those with tremendous personal work ethic, like Swat and Moultrie, who both got better in spite of coaching not because of it.
-Those teams are not better than us.
-The newcomers part, you are probably right. The scholarship players part? No. Not really. Mizzou was one of the best teams in the country last year with 8 scholarship players. We have actually only been 7-deep for most part in 2 of the past 3 years.
-We will be a better rebounding team this year than we have been in most recent years. A TON of rebounding is effort and blocking out. This year, I expect us to actually do those things a good bit.
-True on the point guard issue. That is the most glaring weakness overall, IMO. Craig Sword will be ok in the role eventually.
This^^
-When have State basketball players ever gotten markedly better with "experience"? The only examples are those with tremendous personal work ethic, like Swat and Moultrie, who both got better in spite of coaching not because of it.
-Those teams are not better than us.
-The newcomers part, you are probably right. The scholarship players part? No. Not really. Mizzou was one of the best teams in the country last year with 8 scholarship players. We have actually only been 7-deep for most part in 2 of the past 3 years.
-We will be a better rebounding team this year than we have been in most recent years. A TON of rebounding is effort and blocking out. This year, I expect us to actually do those things a good bit.
-True on the point guard issue. That is the most glaring weakness overall, IMO. Craig Sword will be ok in the role eventually, I hope...
The difference between those teams and this year, is we have always had veteran players on our team which have allowed us to only have to play 7 players. We have no veteran experience on this team. Steele is questionable. Lewis is not a vet, not matter what anyone says....honestly he is probably the worst player on our team and has the worst hands of any basketball player I have ever seen. The fact that he is going to be getting considerable minutes scares the hell out of me.
So guys should be capable of playing more minutes because they are a "veteran"? How does being a veteran apply to conditioning and thus depth? We've always been out of shape, while still only going 7 deep. We should be fine going 8-deep while being in tremendous shape for the first time since the Richard Williams days...and we ARE in tremendous shape for the first time people remember. Marcello even distinctly mentioned this in his blog after watching us scrimmage.
You are simply getting your argument jumbled. Steele is what he is, which is an excellent spot shooter that gives tremendous effort while being average at everything else. His skillset should shine better in this offense, because it is based on the pretense of the dribble-drive-dish, ideally giving him more open looks from 3, instead of the stand still-pass around perimeter-force 3 as shot clock expires. Lewis is what he is, a tremendous effort guy, that will be an very good rebounder and defender for us, while giving us little on the scoring end. Why is any of this necessarily a bad thing? I prefer ok guys that go 110% to "talented" guys that go 75% with no pride in themselves or the school. That's why I'm excited about this season. It doesn't have to be tangible...in fact, it is mostly intangible. That's where I'm excited to see the improvement.
I just don't understand the urge many here have to call Ray and this team a total failure before giving them ANY CHANCE. I mean ZERO CHANCE. It's unfair to everyone. Sure, our talent level is down. No doubt. Talent can sometimes be overcome with heart in sports, and I'm damn sure expecting a whole lot more HEART from this group than the crap I've seen on the court for the past several years.
You are missing the point. The reason we played 7 last year was because we only had 7 guys who could really play. If we had a full team, a lot of the guys on our team would not play. They just simply are not ready. So now they are being forced to play (which I think is really good experience), but think there will not be any growing pains is not logical. Now do I think this team can develop into a decent team....absolutely. We have some pretty decent talent coming in. But the point of this thread was about State vs Troy. And given the fact that we have so many new faces across the board, it is going to be really tough for us to win this game.
I am afraid that I agree with Skint on the Troy game. Troy's not bringing back a ton of experience, but they have a little, and they are opening a brand new arena tonight, so I suspect this will be a more challenging environment than it would normally be. I'd love to see us win of course, but just based off the injuries, the inexperience, and the new arena factors, I'd go with Troy.
If our players don't start getting markedly better with experience, we definitely made a mistake getting rid of Stansbury. Wasn't that the whole point, trade off recruiting for better discipline and coaching?
Exactly my point.
Which was to say that Stans players arrived to State as good as they would ever be in most cases. This is why if Ray can actually develop talent, we are not as far behind as some here would like to think... because there is alot of young "talent" on this team.
So you are basing your predictions on emotion.
"our talent level is down. No doubt. Talent can sometimes be overcome with heart"
"our talent level is down. No doubt. Talent can sometimes be overcome with heart"
Not personal emotion, no. The emotion and determination of the team? Sure, I guess I am to some extent. Are you saying that it is outlandish to think this team has 12-14 wins in them? I understand how basketball is played, and when played smartly and with 100% effort every night, it provides a 5-10 point swing/game. How good would we have been with an extra 5-10 points most of last year? You know, when we gave up in every game outside of a couple in the early-season and against Kentucky.
How much "talent" does Shaka Smart have at VCU? You did do a nice job of cherrypicking a single sentence out of everything I've said in attempt to diminish it, however. Guess we are already defeated again**
Put your prediction out there instead of trying to discredit mine, because it is going to all play out on the court. I have no problem owning it when I'm wrong.
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I don't think Wendell has ever been a great defender. Rebounder? Yes, he was from day one and will continue to be. Effort guy? Definitely. But I don't know how many times I've watched Wendell's man scoring an easy bucket with his back turned squarely to him. Too many mistake his effort and aggressiveness for good defense, which was made very easy to do by watching his alternative over the past two years. Here's hoping he's improved, and I'll be thrilled if I'm wrong, but I feel like he lacks the instinct to be a great defender in any area other than rebounding. But I'm still grateful to have him this year and you're right that you can always use effort guys.
Very good post that is well-stated. Agree with all this. Maybe I should have quantified "good defense" with relativity instead of making it an open statement.
I think actual defensive technique is much easier to teach given the intangibles that he already possessed than it would be in the inverse, which is why I expect to see him be much improved overall on that end. Will we actually see this? In 4 hours, we will know.
Everyone is expecting us to suck(me included)...I just refuse to dwell on the negative at this point. What's done is done. I'm going to be like an OM football fan this basketball season in that regard...
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How so?
I never called this game a win or a cover. Everything I said revolves around a whole season, not one game on the road, much less one game on the road that we were even MORE shorthanded with Johnson being our with a concussion...along with Lewis fouling out with what? 5 minutes? left in the game.
I know this.. our 7-deep of scholarship players didn't fade at the end of the game from being "tired". That was when they made their run.
I never called this game a win or a cover. Everything I said revolves around a whole season, not one game on the road, much less one game on the road that we were even MORE shorthanded with Johnson being our with a concussion...along with Lewis fouling out with what? 5 minutes? left in the game.
I know this.. our 7-deep of scholarship players didn't fade at the end of the game from being "tired". That was when they made their run.
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Just because you weren't brave enough to say you thought we would win, the implication was there.
And there is a wide *** margin of error based on the fact that practically none of us have actually SEEN this team play yet, nor have any idea of what to actually expect from our coaching staff or our talented freshmen. Nothing is a GIVEN yet on this team. Literally, the only known quantity is Jalen Steele. My point was not to throw out an EXACT total, given the millions of variables that take place in a season, and go "hey everyone I'm right" if the broken clock happens to be correct. The idea is simply to say that I believe we are and will be nowhere near as terrible as many here are and have been projecting.
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