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Your best guess at the passing game production needed for a bowl game

Completion Percentage/Passing yards/TDs?

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J

jkernpop

Senior
Dec 7, 2019
898
712
0
Last year the team passing totals were 1847 yards, 11 TDs, 14 INTs. Oof. This led to 4-8.

Let’s assume the defense has improved as speculated, and we have a healthy Wimsatt all year.

What type of production through the air do you think is needed to realistically get to a bowl game?
 
G

GoodOl'Rutgers

Heisman
Sep 11, 2006
123,974
19,584
0
In this extremely competitive league.. only sure answer is the very good passing game one.

It will be a combination of production improvement and matchups for our defense. The lowest one might be enough to really open up the running game... and that means eating clock.. closer games in all games... so you never know
 
RW90

RW90

All-American
Feb 2, 2002
8,322
7,546
113
I get the impression Ciarracco would say enough to consistently move the chains. That said, until Wimsatt develops more touch on his short passes and our receivers show some separation it will remain a huge concern.
 
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S

Shelby65

All-Conference
Apr 1, 2008
7,889
4,349
66
RW90 said:
I get the impression Ciarracco would say enough to consistently move the chains. That said, until Wimsatt develops more touch on his short passes and our receivers show some separation it will remain a huge concern.
Click to expand...
Who or what is a Ciarracco ? A country in the Caribbean ? The character Johnny Carson played who would guess the question in an envelope by the answers which came to him spiritually ? Or an older model Volkswagen sport coupe ?

I am very intrigued. What is a Ciarracco ?
 
RW90

RW90

All-American
Feb 2, 2002
8,322
7,546
113
Shelby65 said:
Who or what is a Ciarracco ? A country in the Caribbean ? The character Johnny Carson played who would guess the question in an envelope by the answers which came to him spiritually ? Or an older model Volkswagen sport coupe ?

I am very intrigued. What is a Ciarracco ?
Click to expand...
Clearly a brain fart misspelling. Don't quit your day job.
 
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N

NickRU714

Heisman
Aug 18, 2009
13,604
12,367
0
RU-05 said:
So what you're saying is, don't throw the ball?

I kid. But 7 int's seems unreasonable unless we play very, very conservatively.
Click to expand...

The problem is we already don't throw the ball enough.
And when we throw it, we're terrible.
And considering our OC is likely to lean into "we throw it too much" (IMO), I'm not too hopeful for much improvement.

#103 overall with 27.7 attempts per game.
#124 (out of 131) with 5.6 yards per attempt.

But hey, we have some FCS wrs now so that's something.
 
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N

NickRU714

Heisman
Aug 18, 2009
13,604
12,367
0
It's almost as if we need an entire new offensive philosophy because this one has been broken for a mostly the past decade.

From coaching, fundamentals, recruiting strategy, play calling.
Change it all and take the time to get it right.

Many are willing to give HC Schiano "he needs time - many years for results" but then don't want to give a new offensive philosophy more than a couple months (if didn't work immediately with OC Mehringer so we need OC Kill to save our defense and time of possession).
 
R

rutgersguy1_rivals

Heisman
Dec 17, 2008
45,215
16,775
0
NickRU714 said:
It's almost as if we need an entire new offensive philosophy because this one has been broken for a mostly the past decade.

From coaching, fundamentals, recruiting strategy, play calling.
Change it all and take the time to get it right.

Many are willing to give HC Schiano "he needs time - many years for results" but then don't want to give a new offensive philosophy more than a couple months (if didn't work immediately with OC Mehringer so we need OC Kill to save our defense and time of possession).
Click to expand...
Mehringer isn’t somebody I’d have hired or at least not without a co-OC but I was always hopeful cause you never know who could turn out good.

If I’m plucking somebody “green” it would be someone who “grew up” in a system for some time but hasn’t gotten the opportunity yet. Like I’ve mentioned Bill Bedenbaugh the OU OL coach. Never been an OC but has been OL coach with Leach and Riley so he’s been involved in the system for many years. That is a profile more worthy of taking a risk than a DM imo. Heupel, KK, Harrell, Lebby, Kendal, Dykes etc…earlier in their careers are the kind of profiles I’d look for as they “grew up” in that system so even if they’re green it might be worth a shot. Seth Littrell is out there too now as analyst at OU. Up and down at UNT as HC but was a good OC at IU and UNC earlier in his career. That’s also a kind of profile that would be interesting. He also “grew up” in the system.

As to the question, I think at least choice two and probably choice 3 and INTs play a big role in which would be enough.
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,475
9,068
113
NickRU714 said:
The problem is we already don't throw the ball enough.
And when we throw it, we're terrible.
And considering our OC is likely to lean into "we throw it too much" (IMO), I'm not too hopeful for much improvement.

#103 overall with 27.7 attempts per game.
#124 (out of 131) with 5.6 yards per attempt.

But hey, we have some FCS wrs now so that's something.
Click to expand...


I'm Ok with a lot of RPO's that turn into runs. Or even just straight designed runs for Wimsatt if our passing game is not up to par.


NickRU714 said:
It's almost as if we need an entire new offensive philosophy because this one has been broken for a mostly the past decade.

From coaching, fundamentals, recruiting strategy, play calling.
Change it all and take the time to get it right.

Many are willing to give HC Schiano "he needs time - many years for results" but then don't want to give a new offensive philosophy more than a couple months (if didn't work immediately with OC Mehringer so we need OC Kill to save our defense and time of possession).
Click to expand...
We've changed philosophy's a bunch over that time, as you note, Mehringer to Kill, to whoever, to Gleeson to Cia. Which in itself is a problem. But anytime we've tried to open it up, to be more creative, it fails, and we tighten back up.
 
SouthJerseyRU

SouthJerseyRU

All-Conference
Jan 30, 2002
4,747
3,084
113
Didn't vote because with the high end completion percentage in this poll is horrible. In a modern offense anything below 60% is bad. With a quick glance at the stats from last year, https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/755/p2 , the last person at 60% is ranked 75th.

To be even average the offense needs to have a completion percentage in the mid 60s, with a Y/A in the mid 7s, and a positive TD/INT ratio
 
J

j_rc_93

Sophomore
Jul 25, 2001
2,328
107
0
As long as the yards are going vertically not horizontally we will be OK. Must have lead the nation in 25 yard throws that didn't cross the line of scrimmage. Use the middle of the field every once in a while. I don't need 40 yard bombs, but is a 7 yard slant too much to ask?
 
S

Shelby65

All-Conference
Apr 1, 2008
7,889
4,349
66
j_rc_93 said:
As long as the yards are going vertically not horizontally we will be OK. Must have lead the nation in 25 yard throws that didn't cross the line of scrimmage. Use the middle of the field every once in a while. I don't need 40 yard bombs, but is a 7 yard slant too much to ask?
Click to expand...
You lost me at "lead the nation in 25 yard throws". #0 couldn't throw 25 yards.
 
J

jkernpop

Senior
Dec 7, 2019
898
712
0
SouthJerseyRU said:
Didn't vote because with the high end completion percentage in this poll is horrible. In a modern offense anything below 60% is bad. With a quick glance at the stats from last year,https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/755/p2 , the last person at 60% is ranked 75th.

To be even average the offense needs to have a completion percentage in the mid 60s, with a Y/A in the mid 7s, and a positive TD/INT ratio
Click to expand...
Tried to set up what I thought was something in the realm of possibility for Gavin as he improves. He threw sub 45 percent during his time in last year.

The positive TD/int ratio needs to be well established the first three games (and obviously Wagner) or this season may be painful.

Mid-60s percentage with a positive TD/int ratio would be amazing and we all welcome that!
 
J

jkernpop

Senior
Dec 7, 2019
898
712
0
So clearly if I told you that Rutgers ended up bowling with Gavin’s final regular season passing numbers of:
  • 47.8% completion
  • 1651 yards
  • 9 TD
  • 8 INTs
…you would have thought I’m nuts. We would have thought this was a terrible year. These numbers are lower than literally ANY of the poll options and a good amount of fan base thought we’d need him throwing double the TDs and a whole 10% better completion percentage lol. Wild looking back.

On the bright side, we had a better overall team than we thought coming in with the stars of the show being Monangai (what an awesome surprise!) and the defense.

Let’s win the bowl game and then crush recruiting and the portal.
 
R

RUforlife

All-Conference
Oct 27, 2002
3,444
4,217
0
jkernpop said:
So clearly if I told you that Rutgers ended up bowling with Gavin’s final regular season passing numbers of:
  • 47.8% completion
  • 1651 yards
  • 9 TD
  • 8 INTs
…you would have thought I’m nuts. We would have thought this was a terrible year. These numbers are lower than literally ANY of the poll options and a good amount of fan base thought we’d need him throwing double the TDs and a whole 10% better completion percentage lol. Wild looking back.

On the bright side, we had a better overall team than we thought coming in with the stars of the show being Monangai (what an awesome surprise!) and the defense.

Let’s win the bowl game and then crush recruiting and the portal.
Click to expand...
NW has reeling and an absolute mess when we played them. Michigan State had an awful year and handed us a game with their atrocious special teams play. Indiana is Indiana, VaTech was still early in the season and they hadn't yet found their feet, and of course you have Temple and Wagner, what can you say about those two.
 
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