Baylor Bears Football: Phil Steele 2025 Forecast

Veteran college football writer Phil Steele has provided his forecast for the Baylor Bears ahead of the 2025 season. Steele is calling for Baylor‘s offense to improve due to a strong returning core and expects the Bears’ defense to be among the best in the Big 12 this season.

Since Baylor‘s 12-2 season in 2021, head coach Dave Aranda has led the Bears to a 17-21 record over the past three seasons. To say 2025, which brings high expectations for the program, is supremely important for Aranda would be an understatement.

Baylor Offense

This season, Baylor returns starting quarterback Sawyer Robertson, along with its two leading rushers, Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass. Robertson’s leading receivers, Josh Cameron and Ashtyn Hawkins, also return, setting up what should be an exciting offense that can definitely contend for their first Big 12 Championship since 2021.

“In 2023, the run game dropped to 115 and the PPG dropped to 23 with 378 YPG,” Steele wrote. “In the first half of the year, the Baylor special teams scored 54 points and the offense just 42. New OC Jake Spavital moved them to the spread offense. My computer was optimistic and called for a jump to 32.8 PPG (over a TD more) and the Bears were right there with 34.4 PPG! This year they have a veteran OLine, their top two RB’s, top 2 WR’s and QB (Sawyer) Robertson all back. This should be one of the top offenses in the Big 12 this year!”

Baylor Defense

Baylor‘s defense was middle of the pack in the Big 12 last season, as it ranked 11th in the conference in both YPG allowed (386.2) and PPG allowed (26.7). If it wants to reach the heights of the unforgettable 2021 campaign, however, the Bears will have to improve drastically in both fronts.

“In 2023, Baylor yielded 33 PPG and 421 YPG,” Steele continued. “Dave Aranda took over the defensive play calling and I expected big-time improvement. Baylor allowed just 230 YPG the first three games, then 419 YPG in Big 12 play. They cut it to 25.2 PPG in the regular season before allowing 44 to LSU in the Bowl.”

“This year, including transfers, he has eight starters back to work with and the front seven should be one of the best he has fielded with strengths at NT, rush end and linebacker. I look for continued improvement and it should be one of the Big 12’s best.”

Baylor 2025 Forecast

“This year, 18 starters return, including QB (Sawyer) Robertson. This time they have five Big 12 home games and a schedule that will have them favored in almost every game,” Steele wrote. “Coach Aranda feels they have a shot at repeating their 2021 success and Baylor is a legitimate Big 12 contender and a playoff contender as well.”

Baylor opens its 2025 season at home against Auburn on Aug. 29. Kick-off is scheduled for 8:00 PM on FOX.