Florida Gators Football: Phil Steele 2025 Forecast

Florida and Billy Napier are preparing for what could be the coach’s most fruitful season yet with the Gators. After an 8-5 season that saw the team fight back from the brink of disaster, morale is high in Gainesville.

They have one of the more exciting quarterback prospects in the nation leading the way. DJ Lagway will have his training wheels taken off, and he’ll be able to show why many believe he’s a Heisman contender this season.

The sky is seemingly the limit, and Phil Steele evaluated all the possibilities for Florida in 2025 in his 2025 college football preview magazine. There’s a myriad of ways the season could go, but the Gators are seemingly a force to be reckoned with.

Phil Steele 2025 Florida Gators Forecast — Offense:

First, Steele took some time to elaborate on why he’s thinking Florida’s offense will take the next step. With the aforementioned Lagway at the forefront, expect some fireworks for the Gators week-in and week-out, despite stiff competition.

“In 2022, my computer called for the Gators to put up 31.5 points per game and 430 yards per game, and they were right there, with 29.5 ppg and 424 ypg! In 2023, it called for 410 ypg and 30.2 ppg, and they had 409 ypg and 28.4 ppg! Last year, it called for 31.9 ppg and 421 ypg, but with quarterback injuries they had just 28.3 ppg and 387 ypg,” Steele wrote.

“This year, QB DJ Lagway is poised for a breakout year. They have 4 starters back on the offensive line and a solid running back duo. They should have the best numbers of the Napier era.”

Defense:

On the other hand, Florida’s defense will need to be stingy if the Gators are going to make a run. Napier is confident in the unit, and that has Steele thinking the same way entering the 2025 season.

“Last year, six starters were back, and my computer called for them to improve to allowing 380.3 yards per game, and they allowed 377 ypg! The unit improved, especially late, with 19 sacks the last four games holding LSU and Ole Miss to 16.5 points per game and holding their last four teams to 90 ypg below their season average, despite a secondary that was decimated by injuries,” the college football writer explained.

“This year, Napier feels there are no chinks in the armor of the defense, with his biggest concern who is the No. 4 CB. My computer is calling for them to allow 328 ypg and 23.3 ppg.”

Overall 2025 Forecast:

So what does it all boil down to for Florida, in Steele’s opinion? They’ve been on an upward trajectory, and there’s no reason to think it won’t continue in 2025. Napier and Lagway could combine for something special for the Gators this season.

“Billy Napier took over a 6-7 team and in his first year was 6-4 but had a 6-7 finish. They were 3-5 in SEC play, but +19.3 ypg. In ‘23, they were just No. 109 on my Exp Chart. UF was 5-2 with an upset of No. 9 Tennessee. UF missed a GW FG vs Arkansas and lost in OT, then gave up a 4th and 17 pass late and a 30 yd FG with five seconds remaining to lose to Missouri (led LSU and Florida State in 4Q) and went 5-7. They were 2-10 on the road under Napier (2-16 run). In ’23, they were much better than their record.

“Last year, they faced what looked like by far the nation’s toughest schedule, but Napier said they were up to the task. Florida had just 4 true road games (Georgia neutral site). Last year,  their Vegas over/under was 5.5, but they made my most improved list, which had me calling for a winning year. The Gators lost their home opener for the first time in 36 years (1989!) to Miami and lost at home to Texas A&M. They blew out Mississippi State on the road and won as a home dog to UCF (led 24-3 at halftime) then blew a lead vs Tennessee and lost in OT for a 3-3 start.

“They led Georgia 10-3 when Lagway was hurt in the second quarter, and then were down to a third-string walk-on QB the second half, and vs Texas in a 49-17 loss and were 4-5. Lagway returned to lead upsets of No. 22 LSU and No. 9 Ole Miss (first back-to-back wins over ranked teams since their 2008 national title season) and the Gators won the last four by 16 ppg to finish 8-5.

“The schedule remains tough this year, but this is Napier’s best team here. He’s been upgrading the roster with better recruiting classes than they had prior. They could face five ranked teams away from home, and host Texas and Tennessee.”