Greg McElroy gives best, worst case scenarios for Florida in 2025

Florida is coming off their best stretch of play through three seasons ahead of Year Four under head coach Billy Napier. A lot goes into whether or not the Gators can keep that progress going, though, or revert back to where they were through his first two and a half seasons in Gainesville.

Greg McElroy recently assessed the best-case and worst-case scenarios this fall for Florida in his latest episode of Always College Football. McElroy began with the bad, starting off by discussing the health of rising sophomore QB DJ Lagway and wondering if it could impact him come kickoff.

“The worst-case scenario is that DJ Lagway, who had (an) offseason shoulder injury, who has been limited throughout spring, is on a pitch count currently. The worst-case scenario is that he’s not at 100%. The worst-case scenario is that he’s not available every single week throughout the season. If those things don’t happen, that’s a huge problem, alright,” McElroy said. “I don’t think this team can overcome an injury at quarterback like they were able to overcome last year. Graham Mertz got hurt, DJ Lagway went right in and they finished with a bang. They had great momentum going into the offseason as a result of the play that DJ Lagway provided. That’s number one.”

Beyond that comes the schedule for the Gators. It’s been well-known that, this year and last year, Florida has had one of the toughest slates in the entire sport. That’s why, if they don’t have the same momentum carry over from last season into this one, the Gators could find themselves back where they started, or worse, based on how the team is playing or handling losses at that point.

“Number two? The brutal schedule eventually takes its toll. Last year, it didn’t. They got stronger as the season went along and they started to win some of those games down the stretch that you thought they might be out of gas in. That’s something that I think is massive. But, this year, they have one of the hardest schedules in college football…You have a brutal schedule and, by season’s end, it might start to take its toll. And, if the roster isn’t prepared for grind that this season and this schedule could provide, that could be a huge problem,” said McElroy. “I think the other thing is, look, losing close is one thing, getting blown out is another … So, I think getting blown out is another thing that would potentially be the worst-case scenario. I think also too, get off to poor start, you’re looking at your schedule. You’re 3-3, you’re 2-4 – whatever it may be depending on how it all shakes out. Then you could kind of create some dissatisfaction amongst the fans. They all of a sudden start to boo. Like, that’s the worst-case scenario.”

However, of the two types of scenarios, McElroy thinks the best-case is the more likely of the two. Those circumstances start back at that schedule with the Gators, like they did in the back half of last season, winning multiple games, even pulling an upset or so, and stacking them towards a great record.

“Number one, you carry over tremendous momentum from last year. That momentum carries over. They were 8-5 last year, including winning four straight to close out the season. You had some massive wins…and they kind of finished with a bang. So they just continue to pick up right where they left off at season’s end,” McElroy said. “That’s number one.

“They also, I think, need to win some big games, right? They’re going to have a few games where they might be an underdog,” McElroy continued. “You win some of those upsets and then you can parlay some of those victories, compliment those…and you might be in a really good spot. I think those are kind of the best-case scenarios for Florida this year”

Then, as far as the team, it again comes down to the development of Lagway, the former No. 1 overall recruit in 2024 who already has seven starts before his sophomore season. McElroy is also looking for steps made by the rest of the team, specifically in the run game and offensive line as well as on the defense.

“Number two? DJ Lagway blossoms, recovers completely from his offseason injury, doesn’t skip a beat from where he was down the stretch and becomes an even more capable player with his arms, with his legs, with just elevating everyone else around him,” said McElroy. “If he can develop into a Heisman Trophy-caliber quarterback, then the sky is the limit for what Florida could potentially become this year. If he breaks out, has a Heisman Trophy-type season, becomes one of the top quarterbacks in the SEC? That could be massive.

“Number three? The offensive line becomes a dominant unit. I mean, just dominant across the board. A lot of veterans back along the offensive line, a lot of continuity that’s been created. You have a dynamic, one-two punch, three punch at running back. Jadan Baugh becomes one of the best backs in the SEC … If he can do that and the offensive line gels, they’ll be massive,” McElroy said. “And then, with the defense? Ron Roberts goes in (as) defensive coordinator. Yes, there’s a few new faces that might be along the defensive line but you have some carryover from last year…If the defense can improve from a takeaway standpoint, that would be big as well.”

Whichever one plays out will likely again determine the future for Napier in The Swamp. Still, if you were to ask McElroy, he thinks Florida will be get that ideal outcome from their team in 2025.

“I think the best-case scenario is far more likely for the Florida Gators this year,” McElroy said. “I’m telling you. I think they’re going to be a problem. I think Florida is going to be really, really solid. They’re kind of flying under the radar. The schedule is brutal but I do think they have the personnel to weather the storm so they’re still very much in the mix when we get to the end of the season.”