Florida State Seminoles Football: Phil Steele 2025 Forecast

No one expected Florida State to finish the 2024 season with a 2-10 record. Especially right after two seasons where the Seminoles combined for 23 wins and four losses, including an ACC Championship victory.

Looking ahead, their upcoming schedule features several key matchups that will allow FSU to prove their worth. That includes games in the ACC vs. Miami (Oct. 4) and a road game at Clemson (Nov. 8). Not to mention the season opener against Alabama and season finale against Florida.

Before the 2025 season begins, Phil Steele attempted to forecast Florida State’s season. Good news Seminoles fans, all signs point toward massive improvements this fall.

Offense

Florida State gained a new offensive coordinator in Gus Malzahn as well as a brand new quarterback in Boston College transfer Tommy Castellanos. Head coach Mike Norvell has put together a group expected to eclipse last year’s offense easily.

Phil Steele: “In 23 they had eight starters back including QB Travis. My computer called for 39.2 ppg, their highest since 2013. In the regular season they hit that with 38.8 ppg! With QB Travis they avg 451 ypg and in the 3 games he missed just 218 ypg.

“In 2024 they had one of the biggest dropoffs ever, falling to 270 pg and scoring cut by more than half to just 15 ppg! This year the offense should have a Stock Market type bounce up with new OC Gus Malzahn and all 4 units will be much more productive so they will at least double last year’s total.”

Defense

Norvell didn’t just bring in a new OC. He also brought in former Nebraska defensive coordinator Tony White, who has assumed the same role for the Seminoles. White has a strong track record for building productive defensive units.

Phil Steele: “In ’23 nine starters were back, and my computer called for them to allow 19.8 ppg and they gave up 19.3! Last year they lost a #1, two #2, a #3 and #7 DC off the unit. Last year my computer called for the defense to rise lo allowing 26.6 ppg and they allowed 28.0 ppg (miss by 1.4).

“This year they should be stronger in all 3 areas and bring in DC Tony White who has fielded 4 straight top 25 D’s at Syracuse and Nebraska. My computer is calling for 24.2 ppg.”

2025 Forecast

An improved offense and defense could see Florida State become one of the more feared opponents in the ACC this season. They’ll look to prove that 2024 was a fluke, and that they’re still a premier brand in college sports.

Phil Steele: “Norvell has a $56M buyout at the end of the year so is not on the Hot Seat and will be off any Hot Seat list next year as they will have a solid year. This time they lose just 2 NFL DC’s and are much stronger on offense (see above) with a solid defense.

“Florida St last made my Most Improved list in ’22 and went from 5 to 10 wins but this year they are my #1 Most Improved team and will contend in the ACC.”