ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for Georgia in 2023
Georgia has won back-to-back national titles and is showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon. The Bulldogs have a loaded roster and favorable schedule for 2023, and the ESPN FPI projections reflect that.
ESPN has released its game-by-game predictions for the upcoming season, as well as the overall record projection for Georgia for this year. The game-by-game predictions show what percentage chance Georgia has to win each game. It’s no surprise that the Bulldogs are favored in every matchup entering the season.
Kirby Smart has recruited an elite roster from top to bottom and has also brought in proven talent from the transfer portal. Here are the full game-by-game predictions for Georgia’s 2023 season from ESPN as the Bulldogs look to become the first team in modern-day college football to win three straight national titles:
Sept. 2: Georgia vs. UT Martin — 99% chance to win
Georgia has played huge games to open each of the past two seasons, facing Clemson and Oregon in back-to-back years. This year is a little different as the Bulldogs open with a UT Martin squad that will be overmatched from the start.
While the game won’t be competitive, Georgia will be breaking in a new starting quarterback to replace Stetson Bennett. An expected blowout should give the Bulldogs the opportunity to play multiple QBs and see what they can do under the bright lights.
Sept. 9: Georgia vs. Ball State — 98.9% chance to win
The Bulldogs will be heavily favored once again when Ball State comes to town in Week 2 as Georgia gets another tune up before SEC play gets underway. This should be another opportunity for multiple inexperienced quarterbacks to get game snaps.
Ball State might be a small step up in competition from UT Martin. However, the Cardinals are nowhere near ready to challenge Georgia.
Sept. 16: Georgia vs. South Carolina — 93.7% chance to win
The first true test for Georgia comes in Week 3 when South Carolina comes to town. The Gamecocks ended the 2022 season with back-to-back wins over top 10 teams in Clemson and Tennessee and have momentum heading into this year.
Spencer Rattler and Juice Wells played huge roles in those victories and both players are back in Columbia. However, as you can see, ESPN doesn’t give the Gamecocks much of a chance of pulling off the upset in Georgia’s first SEC test of the season.
Sept. 23: Georgia vs. UAB — 97.9% chance to win
After hosting the Gamecocks, Georgia returns to out-of-conference action as the Bulldogs will host UAB and first-year head coach Trent Dilfer. There is some excitement around the Blazers program with Dilfer taking over, but he doesn’t have a team that can stand up with Georgia.
This is the fourth of four consecutive home games for Georgia to open the season. The schedule gets much more difficult moving forward.
Sept. 30: Georgia at Auburn — 88.2% chance to win
Speaking of programs with a new head coach, Hugh Freeze has fans in Auburn believing again. The former Ole Miss head man has recruited well since taking over the Tigers program, and he added some impact transfers this offseason, including former Michigan State QB Payton Thorne.
You can bet that Jordan-Hare Stadium will be electric for this matchup. The first road test for Georgia will be a tough one, at least as far as the environment goes.
Oct. 7: Georgia vs. Kentucky — 90.3% chance to win
This could be a sneaky tough game for Georgia. The Bulldogs will be coming off of a rivalry game and will now face a Kentucky team that is sure to be physical under Mark Stoops.
Kentucky has a chance to be improved offensively in 2023 with Devin Leary at quarterback. Yes, Will Levis was a high draft pick, but he was also inconsistent at times. Leary was one of the best quarterbacks in the ACC when healthy. He was the preseason Player of the Year in the conference in 2022, before his season was derailed by injuries.
Oct. 14: Georgia at Vanderbilt — 95.6% chance to win
Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea has the Commodores headed in the right direction. Vandy went 5-7 (2-6) in his second season in Nashville, after the program had won only five games total in the previous three years.
With that said, there’s still a huge talent gap between the two programs and this should be an easy win for the Bulldogs. It also should be a welcoming road environment as plenty of Georgia fans are likely to make the trip to Nasvhille.
Oct. 28: Georgia vs. Florida — 83.3% chance to win
Rivalry games can sometimes produce surprises, and you can bet Florida will give Georgia its best shot. With that said, the Bulldogs still have a better than 80 percent chance to win the game formally known as the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.
Like Georgia, Florida must also replace its starting quarterback from last season as Anthony Richardson is with the Colts. Billy Napier is recruiting well in Gainesville, but the Gators have a brutal schedule. This is arguably the toughest game on it and one Georgia should win without too much struggle.
Nov. 4: Georgia vs. Missouri — 92.5% chance to win
Missouri put a scare into Georgia last season as the Bulldogs had to rally for a 26-22 win on the road. You can bet Kirby Smart will bring that up a time or 12 ahead of this year’s matchup.
Missouri has some talented players and Eli Drinkwitz is doing a nice job with the program. However, Missouri should have Georgia’s full attention and thus the Tigers shouldn’t stand much of a chance.
Nov. 11: Georgia vs. Ole Miss — 86.4% chance to win
This is one of the more challenging games on a schedule that is overall fairly easy. Ole Miss has yet to name a starting quarterback, but whoever ends up getting the job has some talented playmakers on offense, including one of the best players in the country in Quinshon Judkins.
The Rebels got off to a 7-0 start last year, before faltering down the stretch. If they can get off to a hot start this year and build some confidence, they could be a tough out for Georgia in Athens. The defense will need to play better, though.
Nov. 18: Georgia at Tennessee — 74.6% chance to win
On paper, if Georgia is going to drop a game in the regular season, it looks like it will be this one. Tennessee had one of the best offenses in the country last year and is as explosive as anyone under Josh Heupel. No, last year’s game didn’t live up to the hype, but Tennessee should be more competitive in Knoxville.
Tennessee lost starting quarterback Hendon Hooker and his top two receivers in Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman to the NFL. But the replacements looked just fine in the Orange Bowl against Clemson as Joe Milton and company put on a show. If Milton can have the year that many are expecting him to, this could be one of the best games of the college football season.
Nov. 25: Georgia at Georgia Tech — 94.7% chance to win
This rivalry isn’t much of a rivalry at the moment. Georgia is arguably the best program in college football, while Georgia Tech has had four straight losing seasons.
The Yellow Jackets are hopeful that Brent Key can turn things around in Atlanta. However, right now, these teams are at opposite ends of the college football world.
ESPN’s FPI final record projection for Georgia — 11.4-1.4
ESPN has Georgia with the second-best projected record behind only Ohio State at 11.5-1.2. The Bulldogs are loaded on both sides of the ball and should be favored in every game, while being heavily favored in most. Georgia has a better than 80 percent chance to win every game but one this season, according to the FPI. The Tennessee game is the one exception. With that said, the Bulldogs still have a nearly 75 percent chance of winning that matchup. It should be another fun season filled with plenty of wins for Kirby Smart’s program and the Georgia fanbase.