Kirby Smart addresses change in analytics data, indicators of success

The world of stats and analytics continues to grow and permeate into the world of sports, especially in football. And Georgia head coach Kirby Smart has found a newer one that he’s fond of, explosive play margin.

Explosive play margin compares the amount of explosive run or pass plays a given team creates on offense to the amount of those plays they give up on defense, and in a recent press conference, Smart was asked what amount of yardage defines an explosive play.

“Well I’m embarrassed to say I don’t actually know the number, I think it was 15 [yards] and 20 [yards],” Smart said. “15 run, 20 pass, but we changed it over the last couple years because we have what we call ‘big play’ that was 12 and 15. And then we had explosive play that was 15 and 20.”

The difference between big plays and explosive plays may seem like a small margin, but one that according to Smart is used by some coaches to manipulate the portrayal of a team’s success.

“And people tend to slant those whichever one is more favorable to them. Meaning if you have a bunch that fit in the medium area, kind of in between those two borders, then you say hey we had the most big plays. Or you say hey we had the most explosive plays, so coaches all across the country kind of tilt that,” Smart explained.

The details that go into defining these plays are important, but not as important as the margin in Smart’s eyes, as he broke down where the Bulldogs have stood regarding their ability to create and limit explosive plays compared to their SEC counterparts.

“And when we do a stat, one of our quality control guys does it, I want to say it’s 15 and 20 but I can’t verify that. But it’s differential more than anything, so we’re not even leading the SEC in differential, the way we do ours Kentucky actually is. We’ve given up slightly fewer than them, but they’ve gotten slightly more than us,” Smart said.

“So the differential is just like one or two ahead and last year we were second almost the whole year to Ole Miss because of all the explosives they’ve had. So Ole Miss is actually the one that sent the chart to us and I kind of fell in love with it because it showed a greater indicator of who won and lost than turnover margin. I can’t answer your exact question on the exact number of yards.”

Turnover margin has been commonly looked at from a coach’s perspective as one of the stats that best indicates and makes a difference in wins and losses. But explosive play margin takes a little bit closer of a look at the plays that could impact wins and losses more than turnovers, which Smart is clearly a fan of.