Greg McElroy breaks down Miami’s potential paths to College Football Playoff

Miami saw their postseason plans take a bit of a hit a week ago today with their first defeat of the season in a 24-21 loss to Louisville. However, based on their overall resumé, Greg McElroy still has the Hurricanes positioned well when it comes to the ACC Championship or the College Football Playoff.

This week on ‘Always College Football,’ McElroy took a look at several of the conference races going on nationwide, namely with the ACC and how it’s affecting the outlook of the CFP. Miami was the second team discussed by him, as there was no denying that the loss last week impacted whether they’d get a bye as a top-four seed or be an at-large selection in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

“If you would have had this conversation last week, it’d be Miami, without question, that’s playing in the ACC Championship, and the conference goes through Coral Gables,” McElroy said. “Well, you lose to Louisville last week. Now you lose the head-to-head in the ACC titles game race with Louisville, so Louisville has got a game-and-a-half lead right now on the Miami Hurricanes.”

That said, Miami still sits at 5-1 (1-1) overall, with three wins against teams ranked in the Top 25. But the biggest part of that resumé, especially with fall-offs from Florida State and Florida devaluing those wins a bit.

“They’re the team right now with the best chance of an at-large berth out of the ACC because they beat Notre Dame, and Notre Dame is still in a great position to get to the College Football Playoff. And, in the event which a non-championship winning Miami, so just say they don’t win the ACC, and let’s just say they’re 10-2? Their head-to-head against Notre Dame? Well, guess who won that head-to-head – Miami,” McElroy said. “Miami actually has the best chance of getting in as the second team in the ACC, partly because of that win over Notre Dame.”

Miami can avoid a lot of this debate altogether by not losing again, with its conference schedule remaining still making it possible to finish at 11-1, make the ACC Championship, and reach the CFP. That’s just not as likely as it was a week ago, though, especially with their three remaining road games, specifically the one next weekend in Dallas on November 1st, all being potentially tricky for the ‘Canes.

“Their remaining schedule? Stanford this week at home, at SMU. You beat SMU on the road? Now you have the head-to-head over the Ponies. Syracuse comes to them, NC State comes to them, they’ll go to Virginia Tech – who they should handle, at least at this point, and they go on the road to Pitt at season’s end. However, two tough cold-weather games potentially there in November for the Hurricanes on the road,” McElroy said. “As long as they win that SMU game, they should be in pretty good shape to get back to the ACC Championship.”