Paul Finebaum reveals if Miami has a path to College Football Playoff after loss to SMU

Miami has not played like the same team since their second bye week, losing two of three the past pair of weeks to fall to 6-2 (2-2). That recent collapse is now reminding Paul Finebaum of what we saw just last season at The ‘U.

On Monday afternoon, Finebaum reacted to the 26-20 OT loss for Miami on the road at SMU on Saturday, which he described as a disaster for the Hurricanes, while on ‘SportsCenter’. He said that it’s very similar to how they lost two of their final three last fall to finish at 10-2 (6-2) in the regular season, which cost them a spot in the College Football Playoff.

“Was it a bad loss? No, it wasn’t a bad loss. It was a disastrous loss,” said Finebaum. “You just can’t do that every November like Miami did. Remember, last year, they lost to Syracuse on the final weekend, and it cost them a bid.”

In 2024, Miami, after starting at 9-0, lost at Georgia Tech and at Syracuse over the final three weeks, which caused them to miss the ACC Championship and to be the second team out as far as at-larges for the CFP. Now, in 2025, the Hurricanes, after starting at 5-0, have lost two games in just under three weeks to Louisville and then to Southern Methodist on Saturday. That again has them, all of a sudden, on the brink of missing the ACC Championship and the College Football Playoff, albeit this time maybe being even worse with four more games left to play, and to potentially pick up a third loss, in November.

With that, ESPN’s Playoff Predictor now gives Miami just a 14% chance to make the CFP. That was a correct figure to Finebaum as, while they’re not out yet, the Hurricanes are going to need some help these final four weeks to get in as they no longer fully control their own destiny.

“The predictor is pretty accurate. They have a path, somehow, if they can win out and have some carnage ahead of them, get in the ACC Championship and then win that. But, it’s not a very good path,” said Finebaum. “And, I hate to break it, but it looks like another year without Miami in the playoff.”

Miami isn’t done this season, with them having a chance to win out, finish at 10-2, and have a case to be in as an at-large in the CFP. Still, considering where they were just midway through last month, those chances have taken a significant hit down in Coral Gables.