Oregon Ducks Football: Phil Steele 2025 Forecast

Oregon has positioned itself at the forefront of college football in three short years under head coach Dan Lanning. All signs point toward that continuing in 2025.

The Ducks enjoyed their best season yet under the 39-year-old head coach. Oregon finished the season 13-1 overall with an undefeated record in Big Ten play during the program’s first season in the conference. That included wins over Boise State and Ohio State in the regular season, and a win over Penn State in the conference championship game. Oregon would enter the College Football Playoff as the top overall seed before falling in a rematch to the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl.

As the 2025 season approaches, Phil Steele provided their forecast for the Ducks before the new season begins. That includes the expectations from Oregon on the offensive and defensive sides of the football, as well as an outlook on the season as a whole.

Offense

Despite defense being Lanning’s forte, Oregon’s high-scoring offense has been exciting to watch over the past three seasons. The difference this season is that there won’t be a multi-year starter transferring in to play under center, not to mention several other key positions that will need to be addressed after last season’s departures.

“In 2023, my computer called for 40.7 ppg and they even topped that at 44.2 ppg and 531 ypg,” Steele wrote. “Last year, QB Nix, their top RB and top WR were gone, but my computer called for 38.6 ppg. This time they came up a little short at 34.9 and 437 ypg. This year, they lose QB Gabriel, their 1,000 yard RB, 3 of the top 4 receivers and 4 starting OL. It will be tough to match last year’s production but they remain potent.”

Defense

Oregon gets to enjoy having over half of its starting lineup back from last season’s Big Ten Championship squad in 2025. Lanning added depth to his secondary in the transfer portal with Theran Johnson and Dillon Thieneman as a part of the No. 4 transfer portal class this offseason.

“In 21, my computer called for the Ducks to allow 28.2 ppg and they allowed 27.0! In ’22, it called for them to allow 25.3 ppg and they gave up 27.4 ppg,” Steele wrote. “They had just 1.38 sacks per game. In ’23, my computer called for them to improve to allowing 342 ypg and they did even better at 318 ypg and just 16.5 ppg. Last year, they lost 4 DC’s (#3, #4’s, #6) but basically had 9 starters (incl transfers) back and my computer called for 19.9 ppg, and they gave up 19.4 ppg!! This year, they have 6 starters back and Lanning feels they could be better on D.”

2025 forecast

While Oregon will be looking to replace much of the production lost after last season’s success, many expect the Ducks to once again be major players in the Big Ten. In turn, Lanning and company are expected to be in the mix for the College Football Playoff once again in 2025.

“They were one of the four bye teams that lost after a long layoff in round 2 and the #1 seed was one and done in the playoffs. This year, they lose OB Gabriel plus the bulk of their offensive and defensive lines, most of their top receivers and top RB. They did bring in some super transfers and remain one of the top teams in the country,” Steele wrote.

“They did have 3 Net Close wins last year and now face Penn St., lowa and Washington on the road, which makes another unbeaten season unlikely. But they are a legitimate Big Ten and national title contender once again!”