Joel Klatt explains how worried Penn State should be after loss to Oregon

Penn State’s Week 5 loss to Oregon has thrown some uncertainty into the Nittany Lions’ championship hopes. While it’s far from a death sentence for their season, FOX Sports analyst Joel Klatt believes James Franklin’s squad now finds itself at a pivotal crossroads.

On his show this week, Klatt outlined what he called “two truths” about Penn State’s path forward. He noted that the margin for error is razor-thin and that the team must prove it can win games it hasn’t been able to in recent years.

“There are two things that are true about Penn State right now,” Klatt said. “One is that this is going to be an incredibly tough road. They’re going to have to do something they haven’t done since 2016 to achieve their goals — they’ll have to beat a top-10 opponent. We’ll see if Indiana or Ohio State are still in the top 10 when Penn State plays them, but we assume they will be because both teams are very good.”

Of course, that presents a major challenge. Franklin’s teams have been consistent contenders, but signature wins against elite competition have eluded them. If Penn State is unable to grab one this fall, Klatt cautioned that the season could turn sour quickly.

“That becomes difficult because you’re thinking, if we don’t beat one of those teams, then we’re not going to be in the CFP — and that would be a devastating season,” he added. “If they can split those games — beat Indiana and lose to Ohio State, or vice versa — then they’ll finish 10–2. That’s probably good enough to get in, but not a guarantee. And it’s not a guarantee they’d have a home game, although they’d be close.”

Moreover, Klatt also pointed to last year’s expanded College Football Playoff format as proof that hosting matters. Penn State enjoyed the advantage of a raucous home crowd against SMU in the first round, and the environment helped fuel their run.

“If they didn’t get a home game, then you start looking back at what happened a year ago. The home-field advantage was massive in the first round of the playoff, and Penn State benefited from that when they hosted SMU,” the FOX Sports analyst explained. “If they don’t win both of those games, they likely won’t be in the Big Ten Championship. Without that, they won’t earn a bye. If they split, maybe they get a home game. But it’s precarious.”

Still, Klatt wasn’t ready to bury the Nittany Lions. He offered a reminder that even teams with early setbacks can rebound to achieve big things.

“They’re going to have to do something they haven’t done since 2016 to get into the College Football Playoff. That’s hard,” Klatt cautioned. “But here’s the other truth — it can absolutely happen. We saw it last year with Ohio State. They had a veteran-laden team, came back with purpose, lost to Oregon, and then went on a run to win the National Championship. Even in the middle of that, they got stung by their rival at home.

“So yes, it can happen for Penn State. That doesn’t mean it’s going to be easy. It’s going to be very hard. They’ll have to do things they haven’t done before, but it’s possible. For Penn State, both roads are available. You could call it a fork in the road. I just call it two truths at this point.”

All told, Penn State’s season now hinges on whether it can shake off the loss to Oregon and deliver the kind of performance Klatt has been waiting to see. The opportunities will be there, but so will the pressure.