Josh Pate predicts Tennessee takes a step back after 2024 College Football Playoff appearance

The college football season is right around the corner and the last chance to make some predictions for the year is upon us. College football analyst Josh Pate has one prediction in particular for Tennessee.

He opened up on the topic on the Josh Pate’s College Football Show on Sunday night. Frankly, he thinks Tennessee is due for a letdown.

“How far is the Tennessee drop-off?” Pate said. “I’m in Nashville right now and it is not couth around here to just assume there’s going to be a drop-off. But I have turned over a new leaf this summer and I am not doing glass half empty, but I’m trying to pour into the glass more realistic expectations.

“Because even though it’s not true, people have accused us in the past of being a little too sunshine, a little too rainbow, a little too ‘everyone can achieve it if they believe it.’ And you know what? I think Tennessee’s going to take a step back this year. How big is the step back?”

The Volunteers have been excellent under coach Josh Heupel, who has gotten it done with three different quarterbacks now. Could Joey Aguilar be next?

That will have to be the case after the program lost Nico Iamaleava in a Tennessee-to-UCLA swap for signal callers. But will it be enough?

“They were 10-2 last year. Their over/under win total is 8.5 right now,” Pate said. “I bet the under on Tennessee I think two months ago. Offensive line, running back, quarterback, defense, there’s just a lot to backfill. There’s a lot that’s a great big question mark. I don’t really think anyone scripted it to go the way it’s gone the last few months in Knoxville.”

That’s not to say there aren’t potential positive outcomes for Tennessee. This can easily be a setup year for 2026, Pate said.

“Now I have this whole dissertation that I issued before we went on break, which was I think Josh Heupel could go 8-4 and win this year, meaning that the intangibles and the 2026 and beyond sort of the prism could look good for him as long as they don’t get blown out four times,” Pate said. “But that’s an unknown.”