Paul Finebaum reveals Tennessee's chance to make College Football Playoff in 2025

Tennessee enjoyed a first trip to the College Football Playoff for its efforts during the 2024 college football season. While they lost to the eventual national champion in the first round, it set the new standard for what Josh Heupel and company can accomplish in Knoxville.

However, the abrupt loss of quarterback Nico Iamaleava can’t be understated. In turn, SEC Network host Paul Finebaum spared no expense toward Tennessee — his alma mater — ahead of the 2025 college football season. He pointed toward the loss of their QB1 in particular for potentially ruining the Volunteers’ chances to repeat.

“Tennessee will not make the playoffs. I’m very out on that, and it really has to do with losing Nico (Iamaleava) to UCLA,” Finebaum said during SportsCenter on Saturday morning. “Joey Aguilar is serviceable — Tennessee is good. I think they will come close to the playoffs but I can’t, in good conscience, predict that even though I just heard from the dean of Tennessee and they’ve revoked my degree.”

Iamaleava entered the NCAA transfer portal in April. His decision came after an NIL dispute following On3’s Pete Nakos reporting that there were “active negotiations” between Iamaleava and Tennessee prior to the Volunteers’ spring game. The next day, Iamaleava missed practice and shortly after the two parties decided to part ways.

In the wake of his departure and eventual commitment to UCLA, former Bruins QB Joey Aguilar hit the portal and found his new home in Knoxville. Unofficially a quarterback swap out of the transfer portal.

Aguilar transferred to UCLA from Appalachian State this spring. He was highly productive for the Mountaineers and was expected to do the same for the Bruins. Instead, his talent will be displayed in the SEC in Tennessee orange.

Still, the Vols return 63% of its defensive production from 2024 and are expected to be one of the best groups under Heupel since he arrived half a decade ago. While they say defense wins championship, returning less than 40% of an offense’s total production from a year ago is concerning — especially when that offense was one of the most potent in the conference last season.

Finebaum did give Tennessee some credit. If they’re not in playoff contention, he expects them to be close to that mark. Only three teams from the SEC made the playoffs last season (Tennessee, Texas, Georgia). The Vols will hope to be a part of that list again in 2025.