Virginia vs. North Carolina: Odds, final score predictions from ESPN, KenPom

The Virginia Cavaliers (19-12) take on the No. 25 North Carolina Tar Heels (23-8) in the Quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament on Thursday at 9:30 p.m. ET. Here’s how to watch, odds, ESPN BPI predictions and KenPom game predictions as well for both teams ahead of Thursday’s ACC clash.

How to watch Virginia vs. No. 25 North Carolina

Time: 9:30 PM ET

Channel: ESPN

Location: Barclays Center — Brooklyn, New York

Odds

North Carolina is a 4-point favorite over Virginia on Thursday, according to Vegas Insider.

Money line: North Carolina -192, Virginia +156

Spread: North Carolina -4, -112, Virginia +4, –109

Total: Over/Under 130, -110

Check out the rest of Vegas’ odds for Thursday’s slate here.

ESPN BPI Predictions 

Matchup quality: 85.9%

Win probability: North Carolina, 64.0%

Predicted point differential: 3.4

The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team’s W-L record is to achieve. 

Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day’s rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily,’ per ESPN.

For the rest of ESPN’s BPI predictions, click here.

KenPom Predictions

Score prediction: North Carolina 69, Virginia 66

Win probability: North Carolina, 62%

Check out the rest of KenPom’s predictions for Virginia vs. No. 25 North Carolina and the rest of college basketball here.

KenPom’s ACC Tournament Projection

No. 1 Duke: The Blue Devils have a 48.6% chance to win the championship, a 65.3% chance to make the championship game and a 85.6% chance to make the semifinals.

No. 3 North Carolina: The Tar Heels have a 13.6% chance to win the championship, a 36.5% chance to make the championship game and a 67.4% chance to make the semifinals.

No. 5 Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons have a 8.4% chance to win the championship, a 15.9% chance to make the championship game and a 48% chance to make the semifinals.

No. 2 Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish have a 8.4% chance to win the championship, a 25% chance to make the championship game and a 50.2% chance to make the semifinals.

No. 7 Virginia Tech: The Hokies have a 8.1% chance to win the championship, a 20.8% chance to make the championship game and a 37.7% chance to make the semifinals.

No. 4 Miami: The Hurricanes have a 6.1% chance to win the championship, a 13.2% chance to make the championship game and a 48.1% chance to make the semifinals.

No. 6 Virginia: The Cavaliers have a 3.5% chance to win the championship, a 11.9% chance to make the championship game and a 27.4% chance to make the semifinals.

No. 9 Syracuse: The Orange have a 1.2% chance to win the championship, a 3.3% chance to make the championship game and a 8.6% chance to make the semifinals.

No. 10 Clemson: The Tigers have a 1.1% chance to win the championship, a 4.3% chance to make the championship game and a 10.5% chance to make the semifinals.

No. 8 Florida State: The Seminoles have a 0.6% chance to win the championship, a 1.9% chance to make the championship game and a 5.7% chance to make the semifinals.

No. 11 Louisville: The Cardinals have a 0.10% chance to win the championship, a 0.7% chance to make the championship game and a 3.1% chance to make the semifinals.

No. 13 Boston College: The Eagles have a 0.08% chance to win the championship, a 0.3% chance to make the championship game and a 2.8% chance to make the semifinals.

No. 15 N.C. State: The Wolfpack have a 0.05% chance to win the championship, a 0.4% chance to make the championship game and a 1.6% chance to make the semifinals.

No. 14 Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets have a 0.04% chance to win the championship, a 0.4% chance to make the championship game and a 2.1% chance to make the semifinals.

No. 12 Pittsburgh Panthers: The Panthers have a 0.02% chance to win the championship, a 0.1% chance to make the championship game and a 1.1% chance to make the semifinals.