Are we heading towards the bubble again?

I hope not, but considering the level of competition & scores so far in ACC play, I think the bubble is far more likely than a 4 seed or better.

Already have 3 quad 1 wins and the committee isn't leaving out Caleb Wilson for ratings. We could end up "on the bubble" but we'll be in.

The most realistic, non emotional answer, is probably not. That said, the chance for this team to get a 1-2-3 seed has sailed.. The 4-5 seed range is looking increasingly unlikely as well. I would say if the tournament started today, we would be a 6 seed and playing in the 6 vs 11 game. That said, we are trending FAST in the wrong direction. When it’s all said and done, I think we will be a 7 seed, win 1 game, and then go quietly in the second round to a team like Houston, Arizona, UConn, Michigan, Purdue, etc.

Probably not, but it's not completely off the table. Carolina's defense has been historically bad for a month. The talent and length on this team would not lead me to bet on the defense being historically bad for the remainder of the season. At the same time I'm not sure how much of our offensive uptick since Seth returned will hold true long term either. Gun to my head based on what I've seen so far I think I'd bet on this team being like a #6/#7 seed, because I'd anticipate finding some reasonable improvement on the defensive side of the ball. Even if you don't get a ton of fundamental improvement on the defensive side of the ball, I can say with certainty opponents won't shoot 49% from three the rest of the way as they have the last three games, so you'll get some bump from just shot luck.

The most likely scenario is we end up being a 6-7 seed. So under Hubert, our tournament seeds: 2022 - 8 seed 2023 - Miss 2024 - 1 seed 2025 - 11 seed 2026 - 6/7 seed What are we doing here??

I don’t think so. It would take a monumental collapse at this point for us to be omitted.

Yes.

FordCorners said:

I don’t think so. It would take a monumental collapse at this point for us to be omitted.

If we are on the bubble we ain't getting in this year after the backlash last season.

FordCorners said:

I don’t think so. It would take a monumental collapse at this point for us to be omitted.

Yeah the more I think about it I actually think Carolina could end up at .500 in conference and be okay, but likely on the 9/10 line or something. If our only remaining conference wins were Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Clemson which is winning all of our remaining home games minus Duke and beating Georgia Tech on the road We'd be 21-10 (9-9) with a 5-9 Q1 record and no losses worse than Q2. Would be an obvious disaster of a season but I think we'd really have to tank to actually miss the tournament.

THB15 said:

Yeah the more I think about it I actually think Carolina could end up at .500 in conference and be okay, but likely on the 9/10 line or something. If our only remaining conference wins were Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Clemson which is winning all of our remaining home games minus Duke and beating Georgia Tech on the road We'd be 21-10 (9-9) with a 5-9 Q1 record and no losses worse than Q2. Would be an obvious disaster of a season but I think we'd really have to tank to actually miss the tournament.

I think that gets us in. I can’t see us losing those games and we’ll probably steal a few we aren’t expecting.

Uncy13 said:

I know it sounds crazy at 14-3 but with road games left @Cal, @ Miami, 2 games versus Duke, Louisville,@ UVA @ State, Clemson @ Cuse do we have any confidence in winning 4 of these games watching this defense? Torvik projects us at 22-9 with the non conference schedule is complete crap. 21-10, 20-11 may put us in danger with the non conference schedule being so bad. Another bad performance or 2 will also slide us into the 40s on KP that normally are 10-11 seeds

No. We beat Kansas by a lot and they are a really good team. They just boatraced previously undefeated Iowa State. This isn’t a bubble team but it’s also probably not a top 4 seed either. My guess would be a 6 or 7 seed. We’re going to win some of those tougher games. I know last night was ugly but we still have pretty much the best frontcourt in America, and we will play better defense than that.

THB15 said:

Yeah the more I think about it I actually think Carolina could end up at .500 in conference and be okay, but likely on the 9/10 line or something. If our only remaining conference wins were Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Clemson which is winning all of our remaining home games minus Duke and beating Georgia Tech on the road We'd be 21-10 (9-9) with a 5-9 Q1 record and no losses worse than Q2. Would be an obvious disaster of a season but I think we'd really have to tank to actually miss the tournament.

I don’t have faith in us beating Louisville and Clemson. Syracuse, Notre dame, Va Tech, Pitt are the four games I feel comfortable saying we will win all the others are varying ranges of uncertainty. If we beat Cal and Ga Tech on the road that gets us to 8-10. I think that’s where we end up and I think that is firmly on the bubble

THB15 said:

Yeah the more I think about it I actually think Carolina could end up at .500 in conference and be okay, but likely on the 9/10 line or something. If our only remaining conference wins were Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Clemson which is winning all of our remaining home games minus Duke and beating Georgia Tech on the road We'd be 21-10 (9-9) with a 5-9 Q1 record and no losses worse than Q2. Would be an obvious disaster of a season but I think we'd really have to tank to actually miss the tournament.

While I think you’re right, I wouldn’t count on any wins at this point. Stanford was wet trash with one dude that could score and we couldn’t do anything about it. I think I’m in a state of shock right now but my hope has left me.

AshHeel said:

I don’t have faith in us beating Louisville and Clemson. Syracuse, Notre dame, Va Tech, Pitt are the four games I feel comfortable saying we will win all the others are varying ranges of uncertainty. If we beat Cal and Ga Tech on the road that gets us to 8-10. I think that’s where we end up and I think that is firmly on the bubble

Just an off the cuff example of what would be a pretty low roll for the rest of the year that still gets Carolina in the tournament. Even assumes we lose Saturday to Cal. But you sort of made the point I was trying to make, barring injury 8-10 represents what is probably the worst case scenario "realistic" low roll for the rest of the year, and I think that may still put Carolina in the tournament. While we obviously haven't been great, it's statistically unlikely that UNC goes 0-fer in the Duke (H), Miami (A), NCSU (A), Louisville (H), Clemson (H) games. Winning one of those games unless and holding serve against the terrible teams probably does the trick. This is operating under the assumption that Carolina plays roughly at the level it has played at this season for the remainder of the year. If you believe we're going to get materially worse, that changes the outlook obviously.

We’re 1-2 and haven’t played the top tier teams yet. We are trending towards not being in at all

What if Hubert loses the team?

Before the season began I posted we’d be 21-10 and 11-7. We exceeded non conference by two games but at this point I still think we will be 21-10 except 9-9 in conference. That will not get us in.

No chance if the defense continues as is

Hartley11 said:

Before the season began I posted we’d be 21-10 and 11-7. We exceeded non conference by two games but at this point I still think we will be 21-10 except 9-9 in conference. That will not get us in.

I think the worst resume based version of 9-9 as it stands today would be our 7 remaining wins coming @ Cal, ND, @ GT, Syracuse, Pitt, @ Syracuse, VT. That would put us at 4-10 in Q1 games and 18-0 in Q2 and below - assuming quads hold. While again it would be a bad season, I actually think that would be pretty comfortably in on the 9/10 line.

Some of you guys must have slept through math class in high school. Yes, we are heading towards the bubble, if not on it already. This is a math problem, not conjecture or hyperbole. We finished last season ranked #32 in the NET and #31 in KenPom. We were the last team in the field last season. Right now we are #30 in the NET and #35 in KenPom. The hardest ACC games are ahead of us, not behind us. Absent a substantial material turnaround, we are absolutely headed toward the bubble again. This is an indisputable fact, not an opinion, as a matter of math.

THB15 said:

I think the worst resume based version of 9-9 as it stands today would be our 7 remaining wins coming @ Cal, ND, @ GT, Syracuse, Pitt, @ Syracuse, VT. That would put us at 4-10 in Q1 games and 18-0 in Q2 and below - assuming quads hold. While again it would be a bad season, I actually think that would be pretty comfortably in on the 9/10 line.

In what world is the 9/10 line “pretty comfortably in”? Last year we were the last team in the field as an 11. You and I have different definitions of “comfortable.”

8-9 seed and first round exit.

Ramen02112 said:

In what world is the 9/10 line “pretty comfortably in”? Last year we were the last team in the field as an 11. You and I have different definitions of “comfortable.”

10 line I'd agree. The 9 line is filled with teams that are not at all a surprise to make the NCAA Tournament on selection Sunday, even though they aren't particularly good basketball teams. My point is not that things are trending well, it's simply that our wins against Kansas, Kentucky, and Ohio State have Carolina well positioned to absorb conference losses. If you take the 7 remaining wins I posted above and run it through Torivk's algo, it would project Carolina to finish around #33 nationally in Wins Above Bubble. Teams ranked 30-36 in WAB last year earned #8, #9, #8, #10, #11, #8 seeds. If Carolina goes 9-9, but one or two of those 9 wins are against any of the good teams we play, we'll be even more strongly positioned. Drake was the #11 seed out of that group. Even at 9-9 with the worst collection of wins remaining, we'd have a materially better resume than we did last year. I stand pretty firmly by what I said earlier. Carolina is not a tournament lock today, but we are overwhelmingly likely to make the tournament and would need to have a precipitous decline in performance from what we've seen season to date to miss the tournament. ETA: To be clear I think a 9-9 record would represent a catastrophic failure with this team. We're just in a situation today where Carolina is overwhelmingly likely to make the tournament - we'd likely need to lose to Cal and Notre Dame back to back to get on legitimate bubble watch.

We have played 7 games against Q1-Q2 competition. In those games I’d argue we’ve looked like an NCAA team for a single half against Kansas. blow out losses against Michigan St and SMU Played bad fortune to win UK blew leads fortunate to hang on Ohio State and Wake blew lead and lost Stanford Maybe I’m a prisoner of the moment but I see us being firmly on the bubble and I don’t think a bid is given. We haven’t gotten to the toughest games yet