OK, man, nobody's gonna like this.
Arch is about to start his 10th game. He's in the middle of his third year on campus.
He is completing 62.3% of his passes. Only 60% this year. He's at 7.7 ypa this year (much worse against P4 competition). He's not even a top 10 QB in his own conference.
Yes, the OL sucks so far this year. Glaring holes. Yes, the running backs are pure JAGs. BUT. What we're seeing is what happens when you go all-in on a 5 star QB and he doesn't have it.
What does he do well right now? Well, his interception numbers are pretty low. And that's not nothing when you have a good defense and a good punter. But he has yet to elevate the team even modestly. His best game against real competition was against OU, where he made 3 difficult throws. And our only TD was a coverage bust.
He's got a higher floor than Garrett Gilbert -- Gilbert threw a ton of picks. I'm not sure he's got a ceiling like we all believed.
David Ash, as a sophomore, was 8.5 ypa and completed 67.3% of his passes. Arch is sub-David Ash.
What's going on with the offense this year is that the QB isn't very good and we have a team that requires a QB to elevate us. Hit the layups and a couple shot plays and we're an average offense. We don't, so we're tracking for historically bad. And the truth is that Manning doesn't have it. Which isn't what anyone wants to think about.
The bad news is that Sarkisian won't make a change unless Arch gets hurt. And I don't know that Caldwell elevates the team anyway. Dia Bell might have a chance to be a day 1 starter though. Or we might have to hit the portal. Because unless something bordering on miraculous happens, we have a QB problem that nobody anticipated.
Yes, I hope this is jinx post.
