I want to start by saying that for a long time I have avoided speculating or writing about Mark Stoops' future at Kentucky. I've tried to make clear this is not any kind of "defense" but simply the reality that Kentucky has been in with Stoops having so much leverage with the contract. But since Kentucky is coming off a 4-8 season and given the lopsided loss at South Carolina with the way the rest of the schedule sets up, it's probably time for another post.
It's totally conceivable that Kentucky doesn't win an SEC game this year. At this point you would probably predict that. I want to be careful to say that none of this stuff is coming from Mark Stoops. Some of it is what people know, some is what people have speculated. But I'm just trying to fill in some gaps and piece some thoughts together that might add something to the discourse.
Nobody I speak to believes that Stoops is likely to walk away from $30 million or more of guaranteed money. I know in recent days there has been chatter about boosters having conversations but their hands are tied in a lot of ways. Theoretically UK could try to offer Stoops an ambassadorship that would change his role into something else for the athletics department but one person told me he would probably be inclined to coach somewhere else rather than do that. Any attempt to negotiate down would probably have to be similar to what Sam Pitman did at Arkansas, negotiating down to 62% of remaining money because of when the payouts are going to occur. But for Kentucky the unique thing is the size of the contract. If you take out the Jimbo Fisher precedent I think going into this year the biggest buyout a school had taken on was about $20 million with Auburn and Malzahn. That's Auburn, this is Kentucky, this is also Kentucky's athletics department under Mitch Barnhart.
With the conversion of the UK athletics department into an LLC, my understanding is that Eric Monday has a huge role in the athletics department. Someone told me that he uprooted and made a lot of changes with the hospital when he was put in charge of that, and that is an unpredictable X Factor that some people have in their heads, the possibility of a very different approach or making changes. Of course there's also bringing all the NIL in house under JMI. Capilouto is only on campus a few days a month and so there have been big changes in the way UK athletics is being organized and run.
It's hard to say what "has" to happen for Stoops to come back next year but one person told me he would have to make substantial staff changes, almost a total rebuild project starting new given the leverage with the contract. This person expressed that they were unsure if Stoops would have the patience or interest in doing something like that. As of right now, if Stoops is intent on collecting his money (as most people would be) then I don't see an obvious path towards him moving on. I know people look at the situation and think, man, if he runs it back in 2026 the tone is going to be really ugly. And frankly, unless they turn it around unexpectedly this year, it will be.
Liam Coen leaving really crushed them. He's an incredible football mind. My understanding is Stoops probably didn't know he was going to be the quarterback whisperer that he is now regarded as but they knew he was a special mind. His ability to connect with guys along with that mind make him special. Hamdan has obviously not worked out on nearly the same level.
Big question is if Kentucky goes 4-8 and follows it up with 3-9 or 4-8 again, how are you going to be able to attract good enough players from the portal next year? You saw they had a couple of legitimate big buys in Humphrey-Grace and Gusta on the defensive line, Josh Braun, etc., with the spending you can easily see what the staff was prioritizing and thinking in the offseason. But what you are doing in a lot of those cases is having to overspend for players that probably don't deserve the kind of money they are getting.
Everyone I speak to believes college football is moving towards the NFL where there are about 40 teams, there's tons of parity, plenty of upwards and downwards movement. You see the sport moving to this because you often see the Nos. 1, 2, or 3 ranked teams going on the road as 7-point favorites when they used to be 20-point favorites more often than not. Kentucky is in the SEC so regardless of how bad it looks right now in the big picture the Wildcats will have one of those spots in the "professional" college football we will eventually settle on.
However, I have heard a lot more people start to express that they don't believe Jon Sumrall would take the job if some others are available to him. I haven't heard him say that so let's be clear about that. I have been in the camp that says he would probably take the job but when you are looking at the landscape and thinking about your whole career is a stop at Kentucky the best way to maximize your upside in the profession? One person pointed out to me that Arkansas' AD saying they don't have enough money for football after saying they did is the kind of thing that will make it harder to attract HCs at Kentucky in the future because the purse strings are still a reality.
On Cutter Boley what is hurting him is he's really big and moving around the pocket takes longer, they need to put him in a situation where he is less of a sitting duck back there.
What you don't want is for Stoops to leave the program in the kind of situation Joker left the program in if he can't turn it around but the longer it goes on with things not getting better that will increasingly be the concern. I do think NIL and the portal make the fear of digging a deep hole not quite as ominous, easier to pull yourself out, just some big picture thoughts.
