2022 NCAA Tournament bracketology: March 4 projection

As we enter the final weekend of the regular season, keep an eye on precipitous falls by two teams, Xavier and Michigan State, that could impact their NCAA tournament hopes.

Xavier nearly upended potential top-four seed Providence on February 23 in a game it badly needed. Instead, it lost in three overtimes and now has lost five in a row and seven of eight. The Musketeers have plummeted to the fringes of the at-large field. Want to wind up on the outside looking in? Lose to lowly Georgetown in Saturday’s regular-season finale.

As for Tom Izzo’s team, it was extremely fortunate to pull out a win against Purdue last Saturday or else it would be facing dire circumstances. As it is, the Spartans have lost seven of nine. It not time to seriously sweat over an at-large bid, but they’d be advised to avoid losing out. They end the regular season Sunday at home against Maryland.

Elsewhere, the focus shifts to the Missouri Valley Conference tournament today, where fourth-seeded Loyola-Chicago hits the court in a quarterfinal. If the Ramblers were to lose in the tourney final, there is a chance they could earn an at-large bid — although that at-large scenario looks doubtful at the moment.

Note: Teams projected to be conference champs are in bold type, with the conference listed. Teams are listed in order within each seed group. You can keep up to date on all the March Madness goings-on with our daily NCAA tournament tracker/bubble watch.

No. 1 seeds

Gonzaga (West Coast)
Baylor (Big 12)
Arizona (Pac-12)
Auburn (SEC)

2 seeds

Kansas
Kentucky
Duke (ACC)
Wisconsin (Big Ten)

3 seeds

Villanova (Big East)
Purdue
Tennessee
Texas Tech

4 seeds

Providence
Illinois
Arkansas
UCLA

5 seeds

UConn
Texas
Saint Mary’s
Alabama

6 seeds

Houston (American)
Ohio State
USC
LSU

7 seeds

Boise State (MWC)
Marquette
Iowa
Colorado State

8 seeds

Michigan State
Seton Hall
Murray State (OVC)
TCU

9 seeds

Iowa State
San Diego State
San Francisco
Creighton 

10 seeds

Davidson (Atlantic 10)
Wake Forest
Miami
Notre Dame

11 seeds

North Carolina
Wyoming
Xavier
Michigan/Memphis

12 seeds

Rutgers/VCU
North Texas (Conference USA)
Chattanooga (Southern)
South Dakota State (Summit)

13 seeds

Northern Iowa (MVC)
Vermont (America East)
Iona (Metro Atlantic)
New Mexico State (WAC)

14 seeds

Toledo (MAC)
Princeton (Ivy)
Texas State (Sun Belt)
Towson (Colonial)

15 seeds

Colgate (Patriot)
Montana State (Big Sky)
Jacksonville State (Atlantic Sun)
Long Beach State (Big West)

16 seeds

Cleveland State (Horizon)
Longwood (Big South)
Bryant (Northeast)/Texas Southern (SWAC)
Nicholls State (Southland)/Norfolk State (MEAC)

Conference tournaments already have started. Sites for the 2022 NCAA Tournament are listed here.