The On3 NCAA tournament tracker/bubble watch (Sunday a.m. update)
Here is the Sunday morning update of our daily NCAA tournament tracker/bubble watch. We review Saturday’s key games and look ahead to the five games Sunday.
Virginia Tech was on the wrong side of the bubble when it arrived at the ACC tournament; the Hokies (23-12) are leaving the tournament with the league’s automatic bid. Virginia Tech won four games in four nights, finishing off its remarkable run with an 82-67 win over top-seeded Duke on Saturday night. The Hokies have just three Quad 1 wins, but it doesn’t matter.
Another big story of the past few days was Texas A&M, and the Aggies remained in the spotlight Saturday afternoon; the Aggies rolled past Arkansas in an SEC tournament semifinal in Tampa and may have punched their NCAA ticket. Friday, A&M got its third Quad 1 win of the season by beating Auburn. Saturday’s victory was the Aggies’ fourth Quad 1 win, and it might be enough to get them in the NCAA field.
Read on for our review/preview.
And as always, we provide a list of teams that are tournament locks.
NCAA tournament locks (66)
(teams selected by Eric Prisbell and are listed alphabetically by league; team denoted by asterisks have clinched an automatic bid)
AAC (2): Houston, Memphis
ACC (5): Duke, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech*
America East (1): Vermont*
Atlantic Sun (1): Jacksonville State*
Big East (6): Creighton, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, UConn, Villanova*
Big Sky (1): Montana State*
Big South (1): Longwood*
Big Ten (8): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big 12 (6): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas*, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
Big West (1): Cal State Fullerton*
Colonial (1): Delaware*
Conference USA (1): UAB*
Horizon (1): Wright State*
Metro Atlantic (1): Saint Peter’s*
Mid-American (1): Akron*
Mid-Eastern Athletic (1): Norfolk State*
Missouri Valley (1): Loyola-Chicago*
Mountain West (4): Boise State*, Colorado State, San Diego State, Wyoming
Northeast (1): Bryant*
Ohio Valley (1): Murray State*
Pac-12 (3): Arizona*, UCLA, USC
Patriot (1): Colgate*
SEC (6): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee
Southern (1): Chattanooga*
Southland (1): Texas A&M-Corpus Christi*
Summit (1): South Dakota State*
SWAC (1): Texas Southern*
Sun Belt (1): Georgia State*
Western Athletic (1): New Mexico State*
West Coast (3): Gonzaga*, Saint Mary’s, San Francisco
One-bid league regardless (1): Ivy
Will get at least one and could get two bids: Atlantic 10
Saturday’s key results
Virginia Tech 82, Duke 67 in ACC final in Brooklyn, N.Y.: The seventh-seeded Hokies (23-12) were 10-of-22 from 3-point range and pounded the top-seeded Blue Devils (28-6) on the boards in winning the ACC title. Virginia Tech owned a 37-26 rebounding advantage, including 13 on the offensive end. Junior G Hunter Cattoor was 7-of-9 from 3-point range and scored a career-high 31 for the Hokies. Duke was 4-of-20 from beyond the arc and trailed for the entire second half.
Texas A&M 82, Arkansas 64 in SEC semifinal in Tampa: The Aggies (23-11) continued their march through the SEC tournament, pounding the fourth-seeded Razorbacks (25-8). A&M shot 53.3 percent from 3-point range; the Hogs were at 16.7 percent. A&M also dominated on the boards, finishing with a 38-25 advantage. The Aggies led by 12 at halftime, and never truly were threatened in the second half.
Tennessee 69, Kentucky 62 in SEC semifinal in Tampa: Second-seeded Tennessee (25-7) kept alive its hopes for a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament and ended any hope the third-seeded Wildcats (26-7) had of being a No. 1 seed. The Vols shot just 44.2 from the field, committed 13 turnovers and gave up 16(!) offensive rebounds, but still didn’t sweat it out that much because UK was 2-of-20 from 3-point range.
Memphis 70, SMU 63 in AAC semifinal in Fort Worth, Texas: If there was any remaining doubt about Memphis being in the NCAA field, the Tigers (21-9) put those to rest with the victory over the Mustangs (23-8). Conversely, SMU’s at-large hopes now are over. The Mustangs have just two Quad 1 wins, and 17 of their 23 victories have come against Quad 3 and 4 teams.
Davidson 84, Saint Louis 69 in A-10 semifinal in Washington, D.C.: The top-seeded Wildcats (27-5) kept their NCAA at-large hopes alive with the easy win over the fifth-seeded Billikens. Davidson had to get to the A-10 tourney final to keep their at-large hopes viable, and it has done so. Still, while the record is impressive and it won the regular-season title, Davidson has just two Quad 1 wins and 20 of its victories are against Quad 3 and 4 foes.
Richmond 68, Dayton 64 in A-10 semifinal in Washington, D.C.: For th second day in a row, Richmond (22-12) burst an NCAA bubble. Friday, the sixth-seeded Spiders eliminated third-seeded VCU, which had a faint NCAA pulse. Today, they eliminated the second-seeded Flyers (23-10), who also had faint NCAA at-large hopes. The Flyers led by 15 four minutes into the second half, but the Spiders rallied and dominated the final 10 minutes.
Conference tourney finals
Cal State Fullerton 72, Long Beach State 71 in Big West final in Las Vegas: The second-seeded Titans (21-10) survived to beat the top-seeded 49ers (20-12). Fullerton used a 17-2 run in the final 4:45 of the first half for a 32-31 halftime lead. Fullerton led the entire second half, but needed to clamp down on defense in the final 20.6 seconds. After the Titans missed a free throw, the 49ers grabbed the rebound but never got off a shot. Fullerton was 11-of-20 from 3-point range.
Arizona 84, UCLA 76 in Pac-12 final in Las Vegas: The top-seeded Wildcats (31-3) trailed by 12 early in the second half, but slowly reeled in the Bruins and came away with the league’s automatic bid in coach Tommy Lloyd’s first season. Arizona, which figures to be the overall No. 2 seed behind Gonzaga, sliced and diced the Bruins’ defense; the Wildcats shot 51.9 percent from the floor. UCLA (25-7) was just 5-of-22 from 3-point range.
Kansas 74, Texas Tech 65 in Big 12 final in Kansas City: Top-seeded Kansas (28-6) made its final case for an NCAA No. 1 seed by beating the third-seeded Red Raiders (25-9). The Jayhawks took control in the final 10 minutes and lived at the free-throw line in getting the win. KU was 25-of-32 from the line, while Texas Tech was 6-of-13.
Villanova 54, Creighton 46 in Big East final in New York: Second-seeded Villanova (26-7) made its final case for a No. 2 NCAA seed with a gritty performance against Creighton (22-11). After an ugly first half that ended with Villanova leading 19-18, the game was a bit more free-flowing in the second 20 minutes. Creighton led 43-39 with five minutes left before the Wildcats rallied. Collin Gillespie hit two big 3-pointers late to lift the Wildcats. Creighton was 3-of-29 from 3-point range.
Boise State 53, San Diego State 52 in Mountain West final in Las Vegas: Top-seeded Boise State (27-7) held off the third-seeded Aztecs (24-7) to earn the automatic bid. The Aztecs missed two shots in the final 5 seconds that could’ve won it. Boise State was 3-0 against the Aztecs this season. San Diego State was 6-of-12 from 3-point range, but inside the arc was a different story; the Aztecs were 14-of-45 on 2-point shots.
New Mexico State 66, Abilene Christian 52 in WAC final in Las Vegas: The top-seeded Aggies (26-6) didn’t shoot well and committed 15 turnovers, but the played solid defense and dominated on the boards in earning the automatic bid. New Mexico State shot 37.7 percent from the field, but outrebounded Wildcats 44-28; New Mexico State had 17 offensive rebounds. Abilene Christian, which had been to the past two NCAA tournaments out of the Southland Conference, shot just 32.7 percent from the floor.
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 73, Southeastern Louisiana 65 in Southland tourney in Katy, Texas: The fourth-seeded Islanders (23-11) started 3-6 in league play, but righted themselves to the point that they’re now headed to the NCAA tournament with the Southland’s automatic bid. A&M-Corpus Christi led at halftime and throughout the second half. The Islanders will be making their second NCAA appearance; the other came in 2007.
Vermont 82, UMBC 43 in America East final: The top-seeded Catamounts (28-5) crushed visiting second-seeded UMBC to earn the league’s automatic bid. It’s Vermont’s eighth trip to the NCAA tournament overall and fifth in the past 13 seasons. The Catamounts improved to 16-0 at home this season, including 12-0 against conference foes; in their Am East home games, the Catamounts’ average margin of victory was 22.9 points.
UAB 82, Louisiana Tech 73 in Conference USA final in Frisco, Texas: Third-seeded UAB (27-7) beat Louisiana Tech (24-10) for the third time this season, and this win sends the Blazers to the NCAA tourney. UAB built a 19-point lead in the second half, but saw Louisiana Tech cut it to three in the final four minutes before holding on. Jordan “Jelly” Walker, the league’s player of the year, had 27 points for UAB. Louisiana Tech was 4-of-28 from 3-point range (14.3 percent).
Akron 75, Kent State 55 in MAC tourney in Cleveland: Fourth-seeded Akron (24-9) ousted top-seeded Toledo in the semifinals, then took care of second-seeded Kent State (23-10) in the final. The Zips shot 52.1 percent from the floor and forced 19 turnovers in routing their archrival (the schools are about 15 miles apart). Akron’s coach is John Groce, and he previously took Ohio U. and Illinois to the NCAA tournament.
Norfolk State 72, Coppin State 57 in MEAC final in Norfolk, Va.: The top-seeded Spartans (24-6) cruised to the title against the seventh-seeded Eagles. Norfolk State won despite committing 20 turnovers; then again, the Spartans owned the boards (41-24 advantage) and were 11-of-23 from 3-point range.
Montana State 87, Northern Colorado 66 in Big Sky final in Boise, Idaho: The top-seeded Bobcats (27-7) earned their first NCAA bid since 1996 by routing the third-seeded Bears. Montana State led 40-28 at halftime, and it never really got close in the second half. The Bobcats shot 52.9 percent from the floor, including 55.6 percent (10-of-18) from 3-point range.
Saint Peter’s 60, Monmouth 54 in MAAC final in Atlantic City, N.J.: A stingy defense carried second-seeded Saint Peter’s (19-11) to the title. Monmouth was 12-of-51 from the field (23.5 percent). The Peacocks head into the NCAA tourney having won seven in a row; opponents have averaged just 51.7 points during the winning streak.
Texas Southern 87, Alcorn State 62 in SWAC final in Birmingham, Ala.: Second-seeded Texas Southern (18-12) lost twice to top-seeded Alcorn State (17-16) during the regular season, but the Tigers got the win when it mattered, blowing out the Braves to earn the NCAA bid. Texas Southern shot 55.7 percent from the floor, and had its third-highest point total of the season.
Sunday’s game of the day
Tennessee (25-7) vs. Texas A&M (23-11) in SEC final in Tampa, 1 p.m., ESPN: The eighth-seeded Aggies have had quite the journey; they were 15-10 overall and 4-8 in the SEC after losing to Auburn on February 12. Now they’re on the cusp of an NCAA bid. Obviously, if they win this, they earn the league’s automatic biud. But they’re firmly in the at-large discussion, as well, and that’s because they’ve beaten Auburn and Arkansas in the past two days. As for the second-seeded Vols, the have a shot at nailing down a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament with a win in this one
Sunday’s other tourney finals
Princeton (23-5) vs. Yale (18-11) in Ivy final in Cambridge, Mass, noon, ESPN2: Princeton won the regular-season title by a game over Yale and enters on an eight-game winning streak. Princeton is the league’s best offensive team, and junior F Tosan Evbuomwan, who is from Great Britain, was the league’s player of the year and is a stat-sheet stuffer (15.4 points per game, 6.3 rebounds per game, 5.0 assists per game). He was on the Great Britain U18 team at the FIBA European Championships in 2018 and ’19. Second-seeded Yale is the league’s best defensive team, and the Bulldogs play especially good perimeter defense. Yale is seeking its third NCAA appearance in seven seasons (remember that the Ivy League did not play last season); Princeton, meanwhile, is seeking its first appearance since 2017 and its fifth this century.
Davidson (27-5) vs. Richmond (22-12) in Atlantic 10 final in Washington, D.C., 1 p.m., CBS: The top-seeded Wildcats are an elite offensive team but seem likely to miss the NCAA tourney if they lose to the sixth-seeded Wildcats. Davidson has just two Quad 1 wins, and given what has happened with other bubble teams the past week, this looks like a win-or-go-to-the-NIT game for Davidson. Richmond has beaten third-seeded VCU and second-seeded Dayton in the past two days.
Houston (28-5) vs. Memphis (21-9) in AAC final in Fort Worth, Texas, 3:15 p.m., ESPN: About two weeks ago, it seemed a given that Memphis would have to get to the AAC tourney final to have a shot at an at-large bid. As it turns out, while the Tigers are here, they already were in good shape before this tourney started. Houston, of course, has been an NCAA lock for a while. Still, there’s some intrigue. Memphis won the season series, winning the two games by a combined 24 points. Indeed, the third-seeded Tigers have out-toughed the top-seeded Cougars. Can they make it 3-for-3?
Iowa (25-9) vs. Purdue (27-6) in Big Ten final in Indianapolis, 3:30 p.m., CBS: Can Purdue get a No. 2 seed? It seems unlikely, but if Tennessee were to lose and the Boilermakers beat the Hawkeyes, who knows? Expect a free-flowing game: These teams are first (Purdue) and second nationally in offensive efficiency, per kenpom.com, and neither plays particularly good defense.
(On3 staffer Eric Prisbell contributed to this report.)