NCAA Tournament: East Region bracket breakdown
Defending national champion Baylor is the No. 1 seed in the East Region and is the lone top seed that did not win its conference tournament. Kentucky is seeded second, Purdue third and UCLA fourth. Baylor did tie for the Big 12 regular-season title with Kansas; the Bears are No. 4 in the NET rankings and fifth in the kenpom.com ratings.
(The other region breakdowns: South, Midwest and West)
THE GAMES
Thursday in Indianapolis: No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Saint Peter’s; No. 7 Murray State vs. No. 10 San Francisco
Thursday in Portland: No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 13 Akron; No. 5 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 12 Indiana/Wyoming play-in winner
Friday in Fort Worth, Texas: No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 16 Norfolk State; No. 8 North Carolina vs. No. 9 Marquette
Friday in Milwaukee: No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Yale; No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Virginia Tech
THE PARTICULARS
Most overseeded: Wyoming. Nothing against the Cowboys, who are fun to watch. They have two good players in Graham Ike, a 6-foot-9 center with 13.5-inch hands and a 7-5 wingspan, and versatile 6-8 swingman Hunter Maldonado. But all their good wins were at home; the best non-conference wins away from home, going by the NET rankings, were Grand Canyon and Northern Iowa. You could make a case that the Cowboys didn’t belong in the field. And while the committee put them in the field, it also put them in the play-in game, against Indiana.
Most underseeded: No one. Some might wonder why Virginia Tech, which won the ACC tournament and beat Notre Dame, North Carolina and Duke on successive days to do so, isn’t better than an 11th. That’s because until those three wins, the Hokies résumé screamed “NIT bound!” Tech sure looked good in the ACC tournament; they didn’t look that good in the regular season.
Best player: Kentucky F Oscar Tshiebwe. Tshiebwe, who is a double-double machine, is one of the leading contenders for national player of the year. He averages 17.0 points and an NCAA-leading 15.1 rebounds, and had 27 double-doubles, tied for the national lead with Utah Valley’s Fardaws Aimaq. (A double-double is impressive in any league, but we’re thinking the competition Tshiebwe has seen in the SEC is better than what Aimaq saw in the WAC.)
Five other stars to watch: Baylor G James Akinjo; North Carolina F Armando Bacot; Purdue G Jaden Ivey; Indiana F Trayce Jackson-Davis; UCLA G Johnny Juzang.
Best player you’ve never heard of: Murray State C K.J. Williams and G Tevin Brown. We’re cheating and picking two Racers. Williams does the dirty work inside (18.2 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 1.5 steals per game); Brown defends well, scores and also hits the boards (16.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 38.9 percent from 3-point range). Williams has had 13 games with double-digit rebounds and seven with at least 25 points. Brown has had eight 20-point games and five games with at least five 3-pointers.
Three other mid-major stars to watch: San Francisco G Jamaree Bouyea, Wyoming F Graham Ike, Yale G Azar Swain
Numbers game: There are six conference tournament champions in the region — Akron (MAC), Murray State (OVC), Norfolk State (MEAC), Saint Peter’s (MAAC), Virginia Tech (ACC) and Yale (Ivy). There are nine Power 6 conference schools in the region, plus one from the Mountain West and one from the WCC.
Best 1st-round matchups: Texas-Virginia Tech and Murray State-San Francisco. Texas brings a three-game losing streak into the NCAAs, but still had a lot of “good” wins throughout the season. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, got hot in the ACC tourney and won its way into the field. If the Hokies continue to shoot as well as they did in the ACC tourney, they will put all sorts of stress on Texas’ stout defense. The Longhorns need offensive production from Timmy Allen, for sure. Murray State has been in the spotlight for much of the year, but San Francisco was a relative newcomer to the attention machine this season. (And we admit it: We do not like to see two mid-majors matched against each other in the first round.) USF relies heavily on 3-pointers on the offensive end and plays good perimeter defense. There should be a nice big-man matchup between Williams and USF’s Yauhen Massalski, who is from Belarus.
Best potential 2nd-round matchup: Purdue-Texas. Purdue is excellent offensively, iffy defensively. Texas is excellent on defense and solid on offense. Watching Matt Painter’s offense attack Chris Beard’s defense would be highly entertaining. Plus, it’d be Big Ten vs. Big 12, and who doesn’t like to see brand-name programs playing for a shot to get to the Sweet 16.
Etc.: A potential second-round matchup between Kentucky and Murray State would be the first time the in-state schools have faced off on the basketball court. … Baylor is the defending NCAA champion and looking to become the first team since Florida in 2007 and ’08 to win back-to-back titles. … Three coaches in this region are in their first seasons at their school: Texas’ Chris Beard, North Carolina’s Hubert Davis and Marquette’s Shaka Smart. … Saint Peter’s coach is Shaheen Holloway, a former point guard at Seton Hall who went to one NCAA tournament (in 2000) with the Pirates. … Akron’s coach is John Groce, who also has taken Ohio U. and Illinois to the NCAA tournament. … This is Indiana’s first NCAA appearance since 2016 and it comes 30 years after the Hoosiers’ last Final Four appearance under Bob Knight. … Half the schools in the region have won a national title: Baylor, Indiana, Kentucky, Marquette, North Carolina, San Francisco, UCLA and Wyoming.
THE PICKS
1st-round winners: Baylor, Kentucky, Purdue, UCLA, Saint Mary’s, Texas, Murray State, Marquette.
|2nd-round winners: Baylor, Kentucky, Purdue, UCLA.
Sweet 16 winners: Kentucky and UCLA.
Advancing to the Final Four: Kentucky.