NCAA Tournament: South Region bracket breakdown
It’s been quite a first season for Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd. He has guided the Wildcats to 31 wins, the Pac-12 regular-season and tournament titles and now a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Wildcats are the No. 2 overall seed, behind Gonzaga. The South is the only region in which each of the top three seeds comes in as a conference tournament champ; No. 2 seed Villanova won the Big East and No. 3 seed Tennessee won the SEC.
(The other region breakdowns: East, Midwest and West)
THE GAMES
Thursday in Indianapolis: No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 Longwood; No. 6 Colorado State vs. No. 11 Michigan
Friday in San Diego: No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Bryant/Wright State; No. 8 Seton Hall vs. No. 9 TCU
Friday in Pittsburgh: No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 15 Delaware; No. 4 Illinois v. No. 13 Chattanooga; No. 5 Houston vs. No. 12 UAB; No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Loyola-Chicago
THE PARTICULARS
Most overseeded: Colorado State. If Boise State — which won the Mountain West regular-season and tournament titles — is seeded eighth (it should be a seven, by the way), there’s no way the Rams should be two lines ahead of the Broncos. Yes, Colorado State beat the Broncos twice. But Boise State had more Quad 1 wins and did a better job in league play. Colorado State as a seven would’ve made more sense. And that’s not to say Colorado State can’t do some damage in the tourney; F David Roddy is a talented player. But the Rams shouldn’t be a six.
Most underseeded: Tennessee. Duke and Kentucky are No. 2 NCAA seeds, so you sure as heck hope the Vols (who won two of three against UK, including in the SEC tourney) were in that discussion. Actually, Tennessee is one of the two teams (Purdue was the other) that deserved a No. 2 two ahead of Duke. “Ahead of Duke” is the operative phrase. You can make a case that Purdue and Tennessee are seeded where they should be — but not compared to Duke. The Vols have 11 Quad 1 wins, second-most nationally (and five more than Duke), and their strength of schedule ranks fourth nationally. They also won the SEC tournament.
Best player: Illinois C Kofi Cockburn. Cockburn is the only player in the nation who averages 20-plus points and 10-plus rebounds. Still, there are times when he seems willing to step back and let others get theirs. That needs to stop over the next few weeks. Cockburn is an absolute load in the low post and can take over games. He needs to play with a mean streak and actually take over every time out. Illinois needs to let the big man eat; everybody else can have the scraps.
Five other stars to watch: Michigan C Hunter Dickinson, Villanova G Collin Gillespie, Ohio State F E.J. Liddell, Arizona G Bennedict Mathurin, Seton Hall G/F Jared Rhoden
Best player you’ve never heard of: UAB G Jordan “Jelly” Walker. Walker began his career at Seton Hall, then played two seasons at Tulane before moving on to UAB before this season. It was a good move for both sides. Walker was the Conference USA player of the year and he makes the Blazers’ up-tempo offense go. He averages 20.3 points, 4.9 assists and 1.5 steals, and shoots 40.6 percent from 3-point range. He is a high-volume shooter: UAB has four guys averaging in double-figures, but Walker has taken 24.9 percent of the team’s shot attempts by himself. In addition, he has taken 39.6 percent of UAB’s 3-point attempts. Walker has had two 40-point outings and eight games with at least 25 points.
Three other mid-major stars to watch: Colorado State F David Roddy, Chattanooga G Malachi Smith, Loyola-Chicago G Lucas Williamson
Numbers game: There are 11 conference tournament champions in the region — Arizona (Pac-12), Bryant (Northeast), Chattanooga (Southern), Delaware (CAA), Houston (AAC), Longwood (Big South), Loyola-Chicago (Missouri Valley), UAB (Conference USA), Villanova (Big East) and Wright State (Horizon). There are eight Power 6 conference schools in the region, plus one from the Mountain West.
Best 1st-round matchups: Houston-UAB and Loyola-Ohio State. Houston-UAB will be a fascinating matchup of diverse styles. Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars prefer to grind it out on both ends; Andy Kennedy’s Blazers want to run and let it fly. UAB has the perimeter shooters to make this interesting, as long as Walker isn’t shut down. But Houston’s physical nature will cause problems. Ohio State comes in having lost four of five, and you wonder if the Buckeyes can regain their edge. Liddell is a handful and a legit star. But Loyola is an experienced team that, like Houston, grinds on you. Ohio State doesn’t force many turnovers, and Loyola is stingy with the ball and used to working the clock for good shots. Can the Buckeyes remain patient on defense? Remember that Loyola took out Illinois in the second round of the NCAAs last season.
Best potential 2nd-round matchup: Houston-Illinois. This would be worth watching if only to see how Cockburn would handle Houston pushing/pulling/elbowing/leaning on him for 40 minutes (or however how many minutes he’d play). Illinois has a solid group of perimeter shooters, but they often disappear. (That actually will be a concern in the first round, too.) The Illini can get after it defensively, too, so this would not be a thing of beauty offensively.
Etc.: This is Longwood’s first NCAA berth. In addition, this is Longwood’s 15th season in Division I and the first time the Lancers (26-6) have won more than 17 games; this is their 10th season in the Big South and the first time they finished above .500 in league play. … Bryant also is making its first NCAA appearance. … There are five schools in the region who have won an NCAA tournament title: Arizona, Loyola, Michigan, Ohio State and Villanova. … There are two teams in the region with first-year coaches: Arizona with Tommy Lloyd and Loyola with Drew Valentine (at 30, the youngest Division I coach in the nation). … Chattanooga is here thanks to one of the most memorable plays during conference tournament action, winning the Southern tourney over Furman on a 30-footer at the buzzer. … TCU played a weak non-conference schedule, but the Horned Frogs have some damage of late, beating Texas Tech, Kansas and Texas since February 26. … Arizona and Houston are two of five teams in the top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency, as per kenpom.com. The others: Baylor, Gonzaga, and UCLA.
THE PICKS
1st-round winners: Arizona, Villanova, Tennessee, Illinois, Houston, Colorado State, TCU, Loyola-Chicago
2nd-round winners: Arizona, Villanova, Tennessee and Illinois
Sweet 16 winners: Villanova and Illinois
Advancing to the Final Four: Illinois