West Coast conferences poised to make noise (and money) in NCAA tournament

During the 2020-21 basketball season, the Pac-12 Conference toiled in relative obscurity all winter only to see the nation wake up to its strength and depth as the NCAA tournament unfolded.

It became the dominant conference storyline last March after all five league teams that made the field won at least one game; three that reached the Elite Eight, including one that emerged from the First Four to come within a hair of the national title game.

The result was a success for the league on the court and financially; it was its most profitable NCAA tournament ever. As we settle in for this season’s tournament, which begins next Tuesday with the First Four in Dayton, this much is certain: In this tournament, you’d better pay attention to the entire West Coast, whose three primary conferences are poised for substantial on-court and financial success. 

For those just getting up to speed on the national landscape, college basketball in the West this season has been superb. Three conferences — the Pac-12, the West Coast Conference and the Mountain West — are especially strong and will be well-represented in the 68-team NCAA tournament field, which will be unveiled Sunday.

For the first time since 2014, these three conferences could send as many as 10 teams to the tournament. While no team from the West has won the national title this century (the last was Arizona as a No. 4 seed in 1997), three teams — top-ranked Gonzaga, potential No. 1 seed Arizona and returning Final Four participant UCLA — are serious contenders to end that drought. But the strength of the West runs deeper: Four other teams — the Pac-12’s USC, the WCC’s Saint Mary’s and the Mountain West’s Boise State and Colorado State — potentially could reach the Sweet 16. 

Tournament success for a league carries significant financial ramifications. The NCAA tournament revenue distribution model dictates that teams can amass financial units from two funds: the Men’s Basketball Performance Fund and the Equal Conference Fund. In simplest terms, a league receives a unit each time one of its teams plays in a tournament game, except for the national title game. 

The Pac-12’s success in last year’s tournament (it racked up 19 total units) translated into its most financially successful tournament ever. And the best news for the conference is that a conference profits annually from the units amassed during each tournament over a six-year rolling period. For example, this year a league will profit from units collected between 2017-2022. And eyeing the future, all of that Pac-12 success in 2021 still will be adding substantially to the league’s coffers in 2026.

2021 NCAA tournament success will pay off through 2026

Leagues are encouraged but not required to evenly distribute the revenue among conference members. How much is a unit worth? The amount typically increases by differing amounts each year. In 2021, each basketball unit was worth $337,141, for a total of $168.5 million distribution. In 2022, each basketball unit will be worth $338,210.96, for a total of $169.1 million distribution. 

Let’s use the 2021 tournament as an example. Playing in six games, UCLA emerged from the First Four to ultimately lose to Gonzaga on Jalen Suggs’ epic near-halfcourt shot in the national semifinals. So the Bruins collected six units for the Pac-12. This year, each of those units is worth the 2022 amount of $338,211 for a total of $1.7 million. And that’s just what the Pac-12 receives this year for UCLA’s 2021 performance; that doesn’t account for the other league teams in 2021, or the league’s performance during the other years of the six-year window.

When you account for multiple bids, deep runs in the tournament and previous performances during the six-year period, you can see how tournament success can significantly benefit a league’s wallet. One year after the Pac-12 hit the jackpot with its tournament performances, any of these three West Coast leagues could enjoy a similar windfall from this year’s tournament, one that will pay dividends until late this decade. 

Any way one examines this year’s projected tournament field, the West warrants respect. Gonzaga, Arizona and UCLA are ranked in the top 13 in the Associated Press Top 25, the top 11 of the NET rankings and the top eight in the kenpom.com overall rankings. It should surprise no one if half the Final Four hail from the West.

“Elimination basketball is fun,” Arizona first-year coach Tommy Lloyd, a former longtime Gonzaga associate head coach, said after clinching the Pac-12’s regular-season title. “I look forward to taking them [players] down that journey.”

As for the West Coast Conference, it’s not just Gonzaga and everyone else anymore. The WCC is the best it ever has been. For two decades, Gonzaga sucked up all the oxygen in the league. This season, other teams have been formidable. San Francisco, with an impressive NET ranking of 25, is poised to earn an at-large berth under 36-year-old Todd Golden, one of the country’s best young coaches. And Saint Mary’s 10-point victory against Gonzaga in the regular-season finale in Moraga, Calif., underscored the league’s improved strength.

“It’s kind of life in late February and early March, especially on the road,” Gonzaga coach Mark Few told ESPN after the Bulldogs’ first conference loss since February 22, 2020, at BYU.

The beauty of the Mountain West this season is that all four potential tournament teams — Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State and Wyoming — rank among the top 50 in the NET rankings. In fact, seven of the league’s 11 teams rank in the top 100. 

Make no mistake, the Pac-12 is not deep. It’s top-heavy, with two legitimate national title contenders. UCLA returned significant experience from last season’s improbable Final Four run. And Arizona exceeded expectations as Floyd arrived to quickly foster one of the nation’s most efficient offensive and defensive teams. Now the Wildcats are closing in on giving the West two No. 1 seeds, along with likely top overall seed Gonzaga.

“I don’t care what seed we are,” Lloyd said.

Nor should he. Regardless of seed, Arizona and a formidable collection of teams from the West are poised for a March (and perhaps April) to remember.