2023 darkhorse conference championship contenders
After a 5-7 season in 2021, TCU came out of nowhere last year to make a storybook run all the way to the national championship game. The Horned Frogs’ season ended with a thud, but the ride was tremendous.
But rather than throw darts at potential teams that could crash the College Football Playoff field in the final year of the four-team format, what about a look at some darkhorse candidates to win their conference in 2023?
Remember, TCU actually didn’t even win the Big 12 last season. Kansas State, picked to finish No. 5 with zero first-place votes, did.
In all likelihood, Georgia, Alabama or LSU will win the SEC. Same for Michigan, Ohio State or Penn State in the Big Ten. But what if craziness happens? What if neither Clemson or Florida State win the ACC?
College football is all about hope and fandom, so let’s take a look at possible darkhorse conference title contenders from each Power 5 league:
ACC — Louisville
The Cardinals were picked to finish 8th in the ACC in the preseason poll, so this is a deep longshot pick. And yet, the signs are there for this to be a team that vastly exceeds preseason expectations. They upgraded at head coach with Jeff Brohm now in charge, and they brought in more than 20 transfers including quarterback Jack Plummer, wideouts Jamari Thrash and Kevin Coleman, corner Storm Duck and edge rusher Stephen Herron.
Louisville was fantastic defensively last season (nation’s best 50 sacks), and although linebacker Monty Montgomery is now at Ole Miss and YaYa Derby and Yasir Abdullah are now in the NFL, it’s still a group that features NFL talent at all three levels. The biggest reason why Louisville could make a Cinderella run to Charlotte though is its schedule. Brohm couldn’t have drawn up a better slate for Year 1: No Clemson, Florida State or North Carolina, and the game against Notre Dame doesn’t count in the ACC standings. The Cardinals have just three true road games.
BIG TEN — Iowa
The Hawkeyes are a punchline for good reason, but what if Iowa suddenly had an offense capable of scaring teams even every third drive? They were anemically terrible in 2022, but they went out and found upgrades at quarterback (Cade McNamara), receiver (Kaleb Brown) and tight end (Erick All).
Defensively, Iowa returns seven starters including All-American defensive back Cooper DeJean off a unit that allowed just 3.99 yards per play last season. The Hawkeyes checked in at No. 1 overall in ESPN’s SP+ 2023 defensive rankings. So with Iowa poised to play elite defense and special teams again, simply having a serviceable offense — vs. historically awful — could be enough to win the Big Ten West in the final year of divisions and perhaps upset one of the bluebloods from the east.
BIG 12 — Texas Tech
The Red Raiders have actually become a bit of a trendy upset pick to win the Big 12 this season, so maybe they’re a tad overqualified to be considered a darkhorse team? I think they still qualify considering they were picked to finish No. 4 overall, well behind favorites Texas and Kansas State.
Joey McGuire has 14 starters back of last season’s 8-5 team, and in the spring, the second-year head coach said this year’s team would beat the 2022 squad by 14 points. If Tyler Shough can stay healthy, he’ll be one of the top quarterbacks in the league. TTU has oodles of talent at receiver (Jerand Bradley and blazing transfer Drae McCray), but the OL play must improve for the program to truly making a run to the championship game. This is a veteran team, with 10 potential senior starters on defense. The unit also added impact transfers Steve Linton, a pass rusher from Syracuse who projects to replace Tyree Wilson, and San Diego State safety CJ Baskerville. The schedule is tricky, but there’s no OU and Kansas State and TCU come to Lubbock. It would require an upset or two, but the path is there for the Red Raiders to have their best season since 2008.
PAC-12 — Oregon State
Can the Beavers win the Pac-12 in the likely final season of the woebegone conference? Yea. While all eyes are on USC, Washington and Oregon, Jonathan Smith’s team quietly returns 14 starters off last year’s 10-3 bunch. They brought in former Clemson starter DJ Uiagalelei to compete with freshman sensation Aidan Chiles, hoping one of the two big-armed QBs can spark a more prolific passing attack (105th in passing last season).
The Beavers have a bullying offensive line, and sophomore Damien Martinez might be the best tailback at OSU since Steven Jackson. The defense was among the stingiest in the Pac-12 in 2022, and while it must replace most of its linebacking core, the unit should still be solid. OSU’s path to winning its first conference title in 23 years is also aided by a schedule that doesn’t include USC and has three of its toughest games (Utah, Washington and UCLA) coming to Corvallis.
SEC — Texas A&M
The Aggies were picked to finish a distant third (closer to No. 5 than No. 2) in the SEC West this fall, receiving just a single vote to win the conference after last year’s disastrous 5-7 season. But the Aggies might be among the most improved teams in the country in 2023. The foundation of their historic 2022 recruiting class remains on campus, and there’s burgeoning optimism that the Jimbo Fisher-Bobby Petrino pairing will actually work.
The OL projects to be better this fall, and sophomore quarterback Connor Weigman is surrounded by a stacked receiver room that includes Evan Stewart, Ainias Smith, Moose Muhammed and Noah Thomas. If Texas A&M’s defensive line can live up to its potential (No. 109 nationally in yards per rush allowed), then this is a team that absolutely could have a TCU-esque turnaround.