2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Fresh Bracketology as non-conference play continues

The college basketball season rages on with big non-conference games shifting the Bracketology outlook each week. As more top teams establish their spot, and the early bubble continues to form, there is no shortage of movement to follow.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

As the non-conference continues and some conferences start facing each other, there are new datapoints to use in comparison. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Michigan, Duke, Iowa State, Purdue
Last four byes: Miami, NC State, Ohio State, LSU
Last four in: Oklahoma State, Washington, Missouri, Butler
First four out: VCU, UCF, Texas A&M, Wake Forest

First Four (Dayton)

16 Southern (SWAC) vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
16 Vermont (AEC) vs. 16 LIU (NEC)
11 Oklahoma State vs. 11 Washington
11 Missouri vs. 11 Butler

Midwest (Chicago)

St. Louis
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 Southern/Norfolk State
8 Clemson vs. 9 Utah State (MWC)
Oklahoma City
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 UC San Diego (Big West)
Buffalo
6 Auburn vs. 11 Memphis (American)
3 Illinois vs. 14 Lipscomb (ASUN)
Oklahoma City
7 Nebraska vs. 10 NC State
2 Houston vs. 15 Troy (SBC)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan continues a dominant stretch to the season, which includes multiple 40-point wins, helping separate it as the No. 1 overall seed so far in our bracketology. The Wolverines now look to maintain their form as Big Ten play gets started.

2-seed Houston

Houston drops onto the 2-seed line in bracketology for the first time this season, as the analytic models continue to lag behind its competition. The Cougars have no shortage of talent, and plenty of opportunity to rise back toward the 1-seed conversation as the resume catches up.

West (San Jose)

Philadelphia
1 Purdue (Big Ten) vs. 16 Colgate (Patriot)
8 Kentucky vs. 9 SMU
Tampa
5 Tennessee vs. 12 Akron (MAC)
4 Michigan State vs. 13 Northern Iowa (MVC)
Portland
6 Indiana vs. 11 Missouri/Butler
3 BYU vs. 14 Oakland (Horizon)
San Diego
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 Ohio State
2 Arizona vs. 15 Northern Colorado (Big Sky)

1-seed Purdue

Purdue holds onto a 1-seed spot in bracketology, despite suffering its first loss of the season; however, it drops from the preferred Midwest Region. Still firmly in the mix, the Boilermakers’ head-to-head matchup against Iowa State plays a large factor in the slide.

2-seed Arizona

Arizona holds the top 2-seed spot in bracketology, ready to jump onto the 1-seed line with any slip by the teams currently above. The Wildcats still hold one of the best resumes in the country and have computer numbers to support a high seed.

East (Washington)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Vermont/LIU
8 UCLA vs. 9 Baylor
San Diego
5 Arkansas vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 Kansas vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
Philadelphia
6 Florida vs. 11 Oklahoma State/Washington
3 Louisville vs. 14 ETSU (SoCon)
Buffalo
7 Iowa vs. 10 Miami
2 UConn (Big East) vs. 15 Siena (MAAC)

1-seed Duke

Duke remains a steady presence near the top of every bracketology model and others, from the polls to the computers. The Blue Devils continue to look the part of a 1-seed team with potential to contend for the top spot on the bracket.

2-seed UConn

UConn finally makes the leap to the 2-seed line in bracketology with the 1-seed not far away now. The Huskies have strung together multiple big wins over highly-ranked teams, putting them in the mix for the best resume in college basketball.

South (Houston)

St. Louis
1 Iowa State (Big 12) vs. 16 UT Martin (OVC)
8 Georgia vs. 9 Wisconsin
Tampa
5 North Carolina vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 St. John’s vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Greenville
6 Virginia vs. 11 St. Louis (A10)
3 Alabama (SEC) vs. 14 UNC Wilmington (CAA)
Portland
7 USC vs. 10 LSU
2 Gonzaga vs. 15 NDSU (Summit)

1-seed Iowa State

Iowa State once again carries great weight in the analytic models for bracketology this season, using early results to keep them in the mix for a top seed. The Cyclones jump onto the 1-seed line with an impressive win over Purdue helping the case.

2-seed Gonzaga

Gonzaga looks like a legitimate contender early in the season, finding a mix of talent that has it high up the board in analytic models. The Zags continue to build up a solid non-conference resume, which will be crucial to their case.