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2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Preseason Bracketology makes early projections on top teams

James Fletcher IIIby: James Fletcher III20 hours agojdfletch3
march-madness-1-seed-candidates
© Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The college basketball season is now just weeks away, with preseason scrimmages already underway across the country. As more analytic models put out their early numbers to mix with projection data, it is now possible to create a loose bubble picture.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

Until the NET Rankings officially release with a set of data, other metrics and preseason projections fill the gap. Using that information, here is a first look at the 2026 Bracketology field.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Purdue, Houston, Florida, Duke
Last four byes: Vanderbilt, Marquette, Clemson, Iowa
Last four in: Virginia, Maryland, Cincinnati, Ohio State
First four out: Oklahoma, Washington, Georgia, SMU

First Four (Dayton)

16 Little Rock (OVC) vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
16 Siena (MAAC) vs. 16 LIU (NEC)
11 Virginia vs. 11 Maryland
11 Cincinnati vs. 11 Ohio State

Midwest (Chicago)

St. Louis
1 Purdue (Big Ten) vs. 16 LIU/Siena
8 Mississippi State vs. 9 SDSU (MWC)
Portland
5 Arizona vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 Arkansas vs. 13 Chattanooga (SoCon)
Oklahoma City
6 Wisconsin vs. 11 VCU (A10)
3 Iowa State vs. 14 Montana (Big Sky)
Philadelphia
7 Auburn vs. 10 Marquette
2 Michigan vs. 15 FGCU (ASUN)

1-seed Purdue

Purdue coach Matt Painter
Purdue coach Matt Painter (Chad Krockover)

Purdue enters the season at the AP Poll No. 1 team and is highly ranked in both the preseason projections and analytic models. The Boilermakers combine a group of returning talent with some impact additions to the rotation under Matt Painter.

2-seed Michigan

Dusty May, Michigan
Dusty May, Michigan – © Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Michigan looks to build on a successful debut season under Dusty May, overhauling the roster with a new group of talent which looks ready to compete at the top of the Big Ten. The Wolverines are consistently placed inside the Top 10 across any model.

West (San Jose)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Colgate (Patriot)
8 Texas vs. 9 Indiana
San Diego
5 UCLA vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Kansas vs. 13 UC Irvine (Big West)
Tampa
6 Baylor vs. 11 Virginia/Maryland
3 Louisville vs. 14 Troy (SBC)
Buffalo
7 Texas A&M vs. 10 Iowa
2 UConn vs. 15 Vermont (AEC)

1-seed Duke

duke-head-basketball-coach-jon-scheyer-explains-how-blue-devils-doing-things-differently-summer
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Duke is a team with some variance between analytic models and preseason projections based on the outgoing talent to the NBA Draft and incoming freshmen ready to fill the gaps. Jon Scheyer has established a proven model of roster-building which provides much optimism.

2-seed UConn

UConn HC Dan Hurley
(David Butler II | Imagn Images)

UConn looks to bounce back from a down season with a haul of incoming freshmen and impact transfers beside key pieces who bring continuity from a back-to-back title run. Dan Hurley’s team is another with a wider range based on what numbers are run.

South (Houston)

Oklahoma City
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 Southern (SWAC)
8 Missouri vs. 9 NC State
Portland
5 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 BYU vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
Buffalo
6 Creighton vs. 11 Cincinnati/Ohio State
3 Illinois vs. 14 UNC Wilmington (CAA)
St. Louis
7 USC vs. 10 Vanderbilt
2 Kentucky vs. 15 South Dakota State (Summit)

1-seed Houston

Houston HC Kelvin Sampson
Kelvin Sampson’s Houston Cougars landed the No. 11 recruiting class after the early signing period (photo credit – Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports)

Houston is firmly in the mix for the top team in college basketball, landing in the top spot in multiple analytic models. Kelvin Sampson brings back a large chunk of last season’s rotation with big-time freshmen adding to the upside.

2-seed Kentucky

Dec 14, 2024; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope directs his players during the second half against the Louisville Cardinals at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images
Dec 14, 2024; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope directs his players during the second half against the Louisville Cardinals at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Kentucky looks to build on a great Year One performance under Mark Pope, which officially opened a new era for the program which embraces the transfer portal. Now with a mix of veterans and talented freshmen, the Wildcats have big potential to succeed.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Tampa
1 Florida (SEC) vs. 16 Norfolk State/Little Rock
8 North Carolina vs. 9 Oregon
San Diego
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 Akron (MAC)
4 Alabama vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Greenville
6 Michigan State vs. 11 Memphis (American)
3 Tennessee vs. 14 Murray State (MVC)
Philadelphia
7 Ole Miss vs. 10 Clemson
2 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 15 Oakland (Horizon)

1-seed Florida

Todd Golden, Florida
Todd Golden, Florida – © Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

Florida returns multiple contributors from a national championship roster, complementing the stars with a talented group of transfers and high-upside freshmen. Todd Golden’s team proved itself throughout last season and most models agree the success can be repeated.

2-seed St. John’s

Rick Pitino
Wendell Cruz | Imagn Images

St. John’s continues the rise to national power under Rick Pitino, who has once again put together one of college basketball’s most talented groups. Some preseason projections love the Red Storm, which will look to find the right fits on the floor.