2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Updated Bracketology projections as non-conference resumes solidify

In the final Bracketology update before the calendar turns and full-force conference play begins across college basketball, it is time to look at which teams have put together the best resumes. Many teams will play their final non-conference games over the coming week, with an extended gap between matchups.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

As the non-conference wraps up across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand heading into the second half of their season. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Iowa State
Last four byes: Indiana, NC State, Ohio State, Baylor
Last four in: UCF, Villanova, Wisconsin, Washington
First four out: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Butler

First Four (Dayton)

16 Southern (SWAC) vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
16 SEMO (OVC) vs. 16 LIU (NEC)
11 UCF vs. 11 Wisconsin
11 Villanova vs. 11 Washington

Midwest (Chicago)

St. Louis
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 Southern/Norfolk State
8 Kentucky vs. 9 Miami
Tampa
5 Arkansas vs. 12 UC San Diego (Big West)
4 Louisville vs. 13 Belmont (MVC)
Oklahoma City
6 Florida vs. 11 UCF/Wisconsin
3 Kansas vs. 14 Arkansas State (SBC)
Philadelphia
7 Georgia vs. 10 NC State
2 Purdue vs. 15 Oakland (Horizon)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan has established itself as the No. 1 overall seed in Bracketology through the non-conference schedule, stringing together dominant results against high-major competition. The Wolverines have already started their conference slate as well, remaining undefeated in the Big Ten.

2-seed Purdue

Purdue shifts down to the 2-seed line for the first time this season, as much a result of strong performances around them as anything they did. The Boilermakers have a solid resume and will have plenty of opportunities to rise through Big Ten play.

South (Houston)

St. Louis
1 Iowa State vs. 16 Colgate (Patriot)
8 Clemson vs. 9 Utah State (MWC)
Buffalo
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Illinois vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Portland
6 Iowa vs. 11 Seton Hall
3 BYU vs. 14 Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Oklahoma City
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 Ohio State
2 Houston vs. 15 ETSU (SoCon)

1-seed Iowa State

Iowa State once again carries great weight in the analytic models for bracketology this season, using early results to keep them in the mix for a top seed. The Cyclones are set up to compete in an extremely strong Big 12 conference the rest of the way.

2-seed Houston

Houston sits on the edge of the 2-seed line as the non-conference portion of the schedule wraps up, with plenty of opportunity to rise up the board. The Cougars have work to do in a handful of metrics, which promise to rise as they compete in the Big 12.

East (Washington)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 LIU/SEMO
8 LSU vs. 9 Indiana
San Diego
5 Nebraska vs. 12 Akron (MAC)
4 Tennessee vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
Philadelphia
6 St. John’s vs. 11 Tulsa (American)
3 Michigan State vs. 14 Lipscomb (ASUN)
Buffalo
7 Auburn vs. 10 Baylor
2 UConn (Big East) vs. 15 Quinnipiac (MAAC)

1-seed Duke

Duke remains a steady presence near the top of every bracketology model and others, from the polls to the computers. The Blue Devils continue to look the part of a 1-seed team with potential to contend for the top spot on the bracket.

2-seed UConn

UConn has established itself with one of the best resumes in college basketball to this point, continuing to shift up the board with each update. The Huskies now look to make the most difficult leap, comparing their resume to the 1-seed teams above them.

West (San Jose)

San Diego
1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 Vermont (AEC)
8 UCLA vs. 9 SMU
Tampa
5 North Carolina vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Alabama vs. 13 UNC Wilmington (CAA)
Greenville
6 Virginia vs. 11 Villanova/Washington
3 Vanderbilt (SEC) vs. 14 Liberty (CUSA)
Portland
7 USC vs. 10 St. Louis
2 Gonzaga vs. 15 St. Thomas (Summit)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona jumps onto the 1-seed line with one of the best records in college basketball so far. The strong non-conference resume for the Wildcats will set up a Big 12 run, which could see them solidify themselves among the top teams.

2-seed Gonzaga

Gonzaga continues to build the most important part of its resume as a member of the WCC. No team needs more non-conference strength as they prepare to face inferior competition through the majority of their schedule after the calendar turns.