2026 NCAA Tournament projections: ESPN shakes up Bracketology as season comes into view

The latest 2026 NCAA Tournament projections from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi are in as Bracketology season comes into view. We’re still well over a month away from the season, but it’s never too early!

We’ll dive into the last four byes, last four in and the eight teams around the cut line. Of course, this is subject to change drastically, just like from the July update.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at the Bracketology bubble before the regions. We’ll start with the teams that are in.

ESPN Bracketology: On the bubble

Last Four Byes: Texas, Maryland, Baylor, Iowa
Last Four In: Georgia, Texas A&M, Virginia, Miami
First Four Out: Washington, Marquette, Indiana, SMU
Next Four Out: Nebraska, Clemson, Kansas State, Villanova

This latest bracketology update has SEC squads like Ole Miss and Georgia firmly in the dance right now. Others like Texas A&M are just in the final portion with the “last four in.”

As far as the teams below the cut line, Big Ten standouts Washington, Indiana and Nebraska will not make it in, as of now. Clemson and that group will have some work to do.

ESPN Bracketology: Midwest (Chicago)

1. Houston vs. 16. Northern Colorado
8. Vanderbilt vs. 9. Creighton
5. Alabama vs. 12. Illinois State
4. Illinois vs. 13. Utah Valley
6. Texas Tech vs. 11. VCU
3. Tennessee vs. 14. Charleston
7. Wisconsin vs. 10. Oklahoma
2. UConn vs. 15. Siena

This region will go through Houston as the Cougars are pegged as the No. 1 seed in the Midwest. UConn is on the opposite side as Dan Hurley looks to lead his team to a third national title in four years.

Intriguing teams in this bracket include Alabama and VCU is already lurking. Seeing Tennessee vs. UConn in a potential Sweet 16 matchup would be cinema.

ESPN Bracketology: West (San Jose)

1. Purdue vs. 16. Norfolk State/Long Island
8. Cincinnati vs. 9. Ole Miss
5. Louisville vs. 12. Yale
4. Arkansas vs. 13. Miami (Ohio)
6. Michigan State vs. 11. Memphis
3. Kentucky vs. 14. Furman
7. USC vs. 10. Georgia/Virginia
2. BYU vs. 15. Little Rock (Arkansas)

Purdue runs this region as the Boilermakers appear to be the Big Ten favorites once again. BYU will be a fascinating watch this season as Lunardi already has them as a two-seed and a top eight team overall.

John Calipari and the Razorbacks get a top four seed in this region, meaning a Sweet 16 matchup with Purdue is very possible. Watch out for USC and Eric Musselman on the bottom side in what looks to be an improved 2025-26.

ESPN Bracketology: East (Washington D.C.)

1. Duke vs. 16. Vermont/Jackson State
8. Mississippi State vs. 9. Maryland
5. Kansas vs. 12. Liberty
4. Auburn vs. 13. High Point
6. North Carolina vs. 11. Iowa
3. Iowa State vs. 14. Arkansas State
7. Missouri vs. 10. San Diego State
2. Michigan vs. 15. Youngstown State

Duke moving on from Cooper Flagg will certainly be a sight to behold. However, Lunardi still has the Blue Devils as a No. 1 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.

Michigan is expected to be a top tier squad next season as well, getting a two-seed. A new look Auburn without Bruce Pearl will be fascinating and UNC being in this region should be must-see TV.

ESPN Bracketology: South (Houston)

1. Florida vs. 16. Navy
8. NC State vs. 9. Baylor
5. Gonzaga vs. 12. UC Santa Barbara
4. UCLA vs. 13 McNeese
6. Ohio State vs. 11. Texas A&M/Miami
3. Arizona vs. 14. South Dakota State
7. Oregon vs. 10. Texas
2. St. Johns vs. 15. Florida Gulf Coast

The defending national champion Florida Gators will be the top seed in this region, at least as of bracketology projections prior to October. On the flip side, Rick Pitino and St. Johns will have another banner year leading into the postseason.

Gonzaga being on the same side of the bracket as the Gators is interesting, as well as UCLA. Watch out for Texas and Oregon, should those two match up early or even make the tournament!