Baylor vs. Duke odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Bears, Blue Devils

Baylor and Duke are set to play each other at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday night. Both teams are coming into the game ranked, looking to add a massive win to their respective resumes in non-conference play.

The Blue Devils are 7-3 on the season and 0-1 in ACC play. That includes going 2-2 in its last four games, with the losses coming against Georgia Tech and Arkansas while the wins were against Charlotte and Hofstra. The wins were, also, the two most recent games.

Meanwhile, the Bears are 9-1 on the season without having played any conference games to this point in the season. However, Baylor is coming off its first loss on the season, an 88-64 surprise against Michigan State. That’s the same Spartans team that Duke beat by nine points in November.

Odds for Baylor vs. Duke

Duke enters the game as a 2.5-point favorite over Baylor, per FanDuel. The Blue Devils are also currently listed at -154 for the moneyline, right now, while the Bears are sitting at +128.

The point total for the game is currently set at 154.5 points. The Blue Devils are coming off a game where they would have hit the over on that point total. Meanwhile, in the Bears’ most recent game they would have only missed it by a field goal.

Final score predictions for Baylor vs. Duke

BPI Predicted winner: Duke
BPI Predicted point differential: 2.7
BPI Win probability (for Duke): 60.2%
BPI Matchup Quality: 92.9

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to give a statistical comparison between college basketball teams and predict future outcomes. It agrees with Vegas that the Blue Devils are going to beat the Bears in a close game, giving them a 60.2% chance to win. It also predicts the point differential will be 2.7 points.

BPI has given this game a matchup quality score of 92.9. That’s the second highest of any game on Wednesday, December 20th.

KenPom Predicted final score: Duke 80, Baylor 79
KenPom Win probability (for Duke): 51%

KenPom is, like BPI, a predictive system that is commonly used in college basketball. It does not take factors like injuries into account, instead showing how strong a team is at a given time. KenPom agrees with Vegas and BPI, in this instance, predicting a close Duke win.

How to watch Baylor vs. Duke

Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: New York (NY)

Baylor and Duke will tip off at 7:00 p.m. EST. It will be played at Madison Square Garden, home of the New York Knicks, rather than either team’s home court.

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For fans outside of New York City, the game will be on ESPN. It’s also going to be available to fans on streaming through FuboTV, which does have an option for a free trial. Karl Ravech and Jay Bilas will be on the call for ESPN.