Bubble Watch: Final spots in NCAA Tournament remain up for grabs after regular season

For most teams across the country in college baseball, the regular season is over and preparation is underway for conference tournament week. Most leagues will begin play on Tuesday. On Monday, we released our updated Field of 64 Projections, with the NCAA Tournament bubble seeing a few changes.

Last week, Coastal Carolina was one of the last four teams in our projected field. This week, they move off of the bubble and in the tournament. James madison also goes from First Four Out to Last Four In, while Northeastern makes the field after being among the First Four Out last week. Additionally, Florida makes the field after being one of our Next Four Out last week, while LSU and Cincinnati have gone from Next Four Out to Last Four In.

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Of course, the strength of the bubble could drastically change throughout the next few days. If a lot of bids get stolen, teams currently on the bubble could be pushed out while teams currently safe in our field could be moved towards the bubble. A lot will undoubtedly change each day this week.

For now, here is a breakdown of each team currently on the bubble in this week’s Field of 64 projections. Some notable teams are included.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: Last Four In

Cincinnati, LSU, James Madison, Kansas State

Entering the final weekend of the regular season, Cincinnati (31-23, 17-13 in Big 12, No. 55 in RPI) had won four consecutive weekend series. While they dropped two out of three against Oklahoma, the Bearcats avoided the sweep and that could be huge. Tuesday’s Big 12 Tournament opener against UCF is massive for Cincinnati. If they have an early exit, they could end up on the wrong side of the bubble. But if they can win a couple of games, they coudl be on the right side of the bubble.

LSU (36-20, 13-17 in SEC, No. 30 in RPI) is again right back in the mix. Interestingly, LSU is one of five SEC teams that finished 13-17 in league play. Will all of them get in? The Tigers got there by sweeping Ole Miss this past weekend. The SEC Tournament’s opening round is single elimination. If LSU falls to Georgia, their chances would take a big hit. But with a win, LSU guarantees two more games and that might be enough to get in.

James Madison (32-21, 17-13 in Sun Belt, No. 44 in RPI) won a massive series over Troy to end the regular season. The Dukes are in a solid enough spot RPI-wise right now and finished fourth in the Sun Belt. Also in their favor is a non-conference RPI of No. 19 with a non-conference strength of schedule of No. 5. Right now, James Madison feels like they’re on the right side of the bubble.

Our last team in our NCAA Tournament field this week is Kansas State (31-22, 15-15 in Big 12, No. 41 in RPI), though they are far from being safe on the bubble. Winning the series this past weekend against BYU was pivotal, as a series loss would have knocked the Wildcats out. For now, though, their RPI of No. 41 has them in the conversation, though it’s far from certain.

First Four Out

Louisville, TCU, UCF, California

Louisville (32-22, 16-14 in ACC, No. 52 in RPI) was a tough team to cut from the NCAA Tournament bubble. They swept Notre Dame this past weekend, improving to 16-14 in ACC play. That alone feels tournament worthy, but their RPI at No. 55 kept them on the wrong side of things this week. Louisville’s ACC Tournament pool includes Miami and Clemson, and if they make it out of that they’ll probably be in. But anything short of that would have them needing help.

TCU (31-19, 14-16 in Big 12, No. 40 in RPI) is in real danger. The Horned Frogs ended the regular season by losing two out of three to West Virginia, finishing two games below .500 in Big 12 play and ninth in league standings. While the RPI is good enough, finishing that low in conference standings might be too big of a hurdle to overcome for the preseason top five team.

Another Big 12 team on the bubble, UCF (33-18, 14-15 in Big 12), No. 42 in RPI is in a very similar boat as TCU. UCF took two out of three at Baylor to end the regular season, but still finished a game below .500 in Big 12 play and ended up in eighth place in league standings. UCF’s first game in the Big 12 Tournament against Cincinnati could be an essential play-in game on the bubble, though winning it alone wouldn’t be a guarantee to get in.

California (34-18, 17-13 in Pac-12, No. 65 in RPI) would be in the field if it wasn’t for their RPI being in the mid 60s. Still, their path is still open. They swept Washington this past weekend to end the regular season, finishing fifth in Pac-12 standings. The two teams will meet again to open the Pac-12 Tournament, and if California can make a run there, they could surely play their way in.

Next Four Out

St. John’s, Indiana, Virginia Tech, Georgetown

St. John’s (34-16-1, 14-7 in Big East, No. 63 in RPI) really needed to win their series against Georgetown to end the regular season, but they instead dropped two out of three to move onto the wrong side of the tournament bubble. With so low of an RPI, St. John’s resume is just too light to get onto the right side and into the field. They will meet Georgetown again to open the Big East Tournament, but it’ll take a deep run and perhaps a tournament win to get back in.

Indiana (30-22-1, 15-9 in Big Ten, No. 60 in RPI) finished the season third in the Big Ten standings, but the resume just feels too light to get onto the right side of the bubble. The Hoosiers took two out of three against Michigan to end the regular season, but need to go on a deep run in the Big Ten Tournament to change their fate. That quest will begin on Tuesday against Purdue.

Virginia Tech (32-20, 14-16 in ACC, No. 61 in RPI) was once viewed as a potential hosting contender, but the Hokies are now not going to make the tournament as a team on the very wrong end of the bubble. Virginia Tech lost six straight ACC series to end the regular season, going 4-14 during that stretch. With an RPI north of 60, the Hokies will need a miracle.

Georgetown (34-19, 13-7 in Big East, No. 59 in RPI) has quietly stayed in consideration for the bubble for a little bit now, but they still are on the wrong side of it. Winning the series against St. John’s was a good start this past weekend, but they’ll need to do a lot more this week. Simply put, 13-7 just feels light to get in from the Big East, especially with RPI sitting at No. 59.