Kirk Herbstreit, Greg McElroy debate value of results, resume in possible CFP 'chaos scenarios'

With five undefeated Power Five teams and just four spots available in the College Football Playoff field, we could be trending toward a possible “chaos scenario” when the final rankings come out Dec. 3.

With Rivalry Week upon us and conference championship games coming up in a week, there’s plenty to decide when it comes to the top four of the CFP rankings. But in a year filled with parity, there’s always the possibility something crazy happens.

One scenario includes the following. What if Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC Championship; Oregon beats Oregon State and wins the Pac-12 Championship; Michigan beats Ohio State and wins the Big Ten Championship; Texas beats Texas Tech and wins the Big 12 Championship; and Florida State beats Florida and wins the ACC Championship. That creates two 13-0 teams (Michigan and Florida State), five 12-1 teams (Alabama, Oregon, Texas, Georgia and Washington), and five conference champions.

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If that happens, some deserving teams could find themselves on the outside looking in. To ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit, there’s an answer.

“Texas would have to be in there, and it’d be a debate with Alabama and Oregon,” Herbstreit said on the CFP reveal show Tuesday night. “Depending on how these last two weeks went, I would probably have to give Oregon just because I think they’ve been a better team all year, even though they haven’t played the same competition. I would probably give Oregon the edge under that scenario.”

Greg McElroy: CFP committee could set a precedent by ranking one-loss Alabama over one-loss Texas

When it comes to the idea of ranking Texas over Alabama, a few factors come into play. As College Football Playoff committee chairman Boo Corrigan has said multiple times, head-to-head is important, and the Longhorns beat the Crimson Tide 34-24 in Week 2. However, Greg McElroy said the CFP committee has said Oregon should be ahead of Alabama — which is why he argued the Ducks should be in the field if this scenario happens.

The debate then becomes whether a one-loss Alabama team deserves to get in over a one-loss Texas team, which could create a different kind of chaos.

“The committee has already told us over the last four weeks that Oregon’s better than Alabama and they have no resume to support that data,” McElroy said. “They’re going off eye test. So Oregon’s resume is only going to strengthen the next two weeks, with a win against Oregon State, hypothetically, and beating Washington in the Pac-12 title game. So I think Oregon’s a lock, Florida State’s a lock, Michigan’s a lock and then, the debate becomes between Alabama and Texas. That’s who the committee has behind Oregon at the moment. … Texas beat Alabama.

“The results have to matter. We have to respect the results. And if the committee were to create a precedent by putting Bama in over Texas, that would be doing the college football world a disservice. It would. Because you have to acknowledge the regular season, and by putting Bama head in Texas, you’d be saying that the regular season does not matter. And that’s not a precedent that you want to set.”

Kirk Herbstreit: Committee has to weigh metrics, resume and ‘eye test’

Since that Week 2 game at Bryant Denny Stadium, Alabama and Texas have been on different tracks. The Crimson Tide have won nine straight games — with seven of which came by at least two scores. The Longhorns, meanwhile, are 8-1 with a loss to Oklahoma and three one-score victories in their last five games.

While Texas’ resume is important with wins over Kansas and Kansas State in addition to the Alabama win, Herbstreit wondered how much resume matters in the grand scheme of the CFP. Even metrics, he said, tend do dominate the conversation too much in his eyes.

But one factor that might not get talked about enough, according to Herbstreit, is the “eye test.”

“It seems like there’s a lot of resume talk, and I feel like resume is part of the evaluation,” Herbstreit said. “But if I’m sitting in that room and I’m watching college football from late August to right now, don’t get me wrong. Metrics are important, analytics are important. But that’s part of it. That’s not all of it. And I just feel like — I hope when they’re watching that they’re looking at football. People are critical on Twitter about eye test and it’s so subjective, it’s not fair.

“But when you watch teams, that’s one of the ways you give somebody an advantage. Not on metrics and not on resume. Resume is supposed to be when there’s a cluster of teams, we go to the resume to separate [this] cluster of teams. But eyeball test does matter. Evaluating football and knowing football should matter to the committee. It’s not just resume. It’s not just the metrics when you evaluate these teams. That’s only a part of it. Eye test is a big part of it, as well.”