College football insider evaluates how Big 12 expansion impacts Texas, Oklahoma timeline for SEC departure

The Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns are set to leave the Big 12 conference and join the SEC in 2025. But is there a possibility that the two schools could jump ship sooner than that with the Big 12 expanding in 2023? Well, college football insider Stewart Mandel evaluates and explains the timeline for the two schools’ departure to the SEC in a recent appearance on the Paul Finebaum Show.

“Certainly not for 2023. It’s too late already for that,” said Mandel. “I believe there was some 18 months notification. For Texas and Oklahoma to leave early, they would had to have done that already.”

The Longhorns and Sooners missed their window for a quick transition from one conference to the other. So, if not now, then when is the window for an exit from the Big 12?

“I think the question that’s out there is… we’re talking the 2024 football season, would it make financial sense for Texas and Oklahoma to pay whatever is left, at that point, of the buyout fee; knowing they’re going to make a lot of money when they get into the SEC?”

The Longhorns and Sooners’ potential move to the SEC yields some financial risk due to having to pay an early buyout fee to the Big 12 but could lead to a significant reward. Per CNBC, the SEC’s TV contract expires with CBS at the end of the 2023 year, which is worth $55 million a year. Afterward, the SEC will begin its new contract with ESPN, valued at roughly $300 million per year. And Texas and Oklahoma would not be allowed to participate in the media benefits until after joining in 2025.

Texas and Oklahoma could be stuck in the Big 12 until 2025

With that much money on the table, it is a head-scratcher as to why both teams have not made the jump to the SEC. But that answer is simple; neither team wants to pay the Big 12 more than they have to.

“What I’ve always been told is Texas and Oklahoma don’t want to pay a dollar more than they have to leave the Big 12, and they’re prepared to stick with the 2025 exit if that’s what it takes. And certainly, the Big 12 has no incentive to kick them out early. Those two programs generate 50 percent of the revenue in their TV contract. So I’m working under the assumption right now that there’s going to be a two-year period where the Big 12 will be a 14-team league.”

Despite the opportunity to cash in on the SEC’s new lucrative ten-year deal with ESPN, above Texas and Oklahoma would be looking at substantial buyout price tags. A report from last year put both teams’ buyout numbers close to $76 million a piece. So although many are looking forward to the Longhorns and Sooners joining the SEC, it seems like the 2025 moving date it’s set in stone. However, a lot can change between now and then that could entice either or both teams to make that jump sooner rather than later.