College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: ESPN breaks down who's in, who's out after Week 4

College football is coming out of week four, signaling one of the final slates featuring a lot of non-conference matchups. Now, we’re onto a massive schedule for week five, which will begin to transition us into league play nationwide. With that, ESPN’s Heather Dinich has provided her latest College Football Playoff update ahead of the final weekend of September.

Dinch posted the newest edition of her bubble watch in an article on Tuesday morning. She bases these week-to-week changes, labeling each team as in, work to do, or out, on historical projections from what the selection committee has done in the past with what teams are currently doing in trying to make the CFP.

With that, here are Dinich’s most-recent projections for the College Football Playoff:

SEC

Would be in: Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Work to do: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina

The Southeastern Conference remained unchanged from this past weekend, with five teams overall projected as in the playoff field, all being seeded three through ten, and seven more being under consideration. That could shift on Saturday, though, with major matchups in the league with No. 4 LSU vs. No. 13 Ole Miss, No. 17 Alabama vs. Georgia, Auburn vs. No. 9 Texas A&M, and No. 15 Tennessee vs. Mississippi State.

Dinich spotlighted Ole Miss this week, with the Rebels already at 4-0 (2-0) as they enter a stretch that could get them in with top-ten matchups currently in three of their next four against LSU, Georgia, and Oklahoma. She also notably dropped Texas the past few days ahead of their bye before beginning conference play at Florida in The Swamp and against Oklahoma for Red River to open October.

Big Ten

Would be in: Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State
Work to do: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Maryland, Nebraska, USC, Washington,
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin

The Big Ten only went up this last week based on the results for four teams as noted by Dinich. That starts with Maryland, which won 27-10 at Wisconsin, and Washington, which won 59-24 at Washington State in the Apple Cup, to each remain undefeated and move into the category of work to do.

However, Indiana maybe made the biggest statement in the sport from last weekend’s schedule with a 63-10 win over Illinois, with the Hoosiers on the edge of being in the field. She also mentioned the play of Michigan, who has bounced back from their loss at Oklahoma with two wins, including their 30-27 win at Nebraska, and without Sherrone Moore during that span at that.

ACC

Would be in: Florida State, Miami
Work to do: California, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia, Wake Forest
Would be out: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, SMU, Stanford, Virginia Tech

Florida State and Miami remained the only teams projected to be in for Dinich from the ACC. That said, it was a good week for the Atlantic Coast Conference with NC State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia, and Wake Forest all trending upward, while SMU did trend down with their loss 35-24 at TCU for the Battle for the Iron Skillet.

‘Cuse was the biggest winner of those as the latest team to beat Clemson this season with a 34-21 victory in Death Valley, although losing their starting quarterback now in reaching that record of 3-1. Dinich also discussed Georgia Tech, who won 45-24 over Temple, as that next team for this league behind the Seminoles and Hurricanes as she sees a chance for the Yellow Jackets to run the table here, or at least do so through the remainder of their conference slate.

Big 12

Would be in: Texas Tech
Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, UCF, Utah
Would be out: Baylor, Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia

With Iowa State down coming off of a bye, Texas Tech is now the lone team projected in the playoff from the Big 12 after the Red Raiders went on the road to win at 34-10 over Utah in Salt Lake City. That didn’t dismiss the Cyclones, though, with them returning to open league play this weekend against Arizona in Ames.

Arizona State’s win at Baylor sent the Sun Devils up and the Bears down, while Cincinnati and Kansas each also trended upward ahead of playing one another in Lawrence on Saturday. TCU, as they’re still undefeated after their win over SMU, was also of note to Dinich, especially ahead of the Horned Frogs’ trip to Tempe on Friday night.

Independent

Would be out: Notre Dame

Notre Dame is still projected as out of the playoff here as they still sit at just 1-2 on this season. But, after their 0-2 start with highly-ranked losses at Miami and to Texas A&M, the Irish are at least on the board as they attempt to win out to try and earn their spot in the CFP.

“They did exactly what they needed to following an 0-2 start. Now they have to do it nine more times,” Dinich wrote of the Fighting Irish. “Even with a 10-2 finish, an at-large bid isn’t a guarantee. It depends on how many other 10-2 teams the committee has to consider, what their résumés are — and what those two losses look like. If nothing else, Notre Dame might finish with two of the best losses in the country.”

Group of Five

Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Navy, North Texas, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV

Memphis is now the newest team projected to be in the playoff from the Group of Five after a 32-31 win over Arkansas has the Tigers at 4-0. That gives the American an even greater chance of being the non-power conference that sends that final team into the field, with Memphis, Navy, South Florida, Tulane, and now North Texas all making cases.

The American may be the current favorite to get that bid for the G5. There’s a lot of season left to play, though, with UNLV also being listed by Dinich with the Rebels being undefeated at 4-0.