College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: ESPN breaks down who's in, who's out after Week 2

The latest College Football Playoff bubble watch is here from ESPN’s Heather Dinich as we have a look at who’s in and who’s out. We’re only two, well, three-ish weeks into the season, but we do have a rough look at this year’s bracket.

We’ll provide a breakdown of the Power Four conferences, the Independents and Group of Five through two weeks. ESPN provided percentages, in terms of chances of making the playoff, for each team mentioned. Those percentages aren’t necessarily in exact order either. It’s based on the current resume, eye test and future projections.

Let’s dive into the College Football Playoff bubble watch per ESPN. We’ll start with the SEC.

SEC

Would be in: Texas (63%), Georgia (62.4%), Tennessee (53%), LSU (26.5%)
Work to do: Ole Miss (59.8%), Alabama (48.6%), Auburn (33.3%), Missouri (26.7%), Texas A&M (20.6%), South Carolina (19.8%), Oklahoma (19.2%), Mississippi State (1.7%)
Would be out: Arkansas (17.7%), Vanderbilt (10.7%), Florida (5.1%), Kentucky (1.3%)

Dinich has four SEC teams in the College Football Playoff so far. That’d be a massive number for the conference as Texas and Georgia are neck and neck.

Through two weeks, Tennessee has been impressive as well. LSU has a smaller chance due to the schedule difficulty, but again, it’s early.

Big Ten

Would be in: Ohio State (82.4%), Oregon (81.5%), Penn State (54.1%)
Work to do: USC (59.3%), Indiana (21.5%), Illinois (14.1%), Wisconsin (2.6%)
Would be out: Nebraska (27.4%), Washington (7.4%), Michigan (4%), Rutgers (3.8%), Minnesota (1.7%), Iowa (0.8%), Maryland (0.5%), Michigan State (0.4%), Northwestern (0%), Purdue (0%), UCLA (0%)

The Big Ten will get three teams into the College Football Playoff, as of now. Ohio State and Oregon have looked dominant through two weeks.

Penn State has as well, but the quality of opponents is a little less than the previously mentioned two. Plus, the Nittany Lions’ chances against Ohio State and Oregon took a hit via the ESPN FPI. Don’t look now, USC could be in the running.

ACC

Would be in: Miami (33.4%), Florida State (22.8%)
Work to do: Georgia Tech (17.1%), Clemson (11.4%), SMU (8.2%)
Would be out: Louisville (5.1%), Virginia (3.2%), Pitt (2.8%), Boston College (1.8%), NC State (1.7%), Cal (0.7%), Duke (0.6%), Virginia Tech (0.5%), Syracuse (0.2%), North Carolina (0%), Stanford (0%), Wake Forest (0%)

Miami and Florida State are the two reps from the ACC making the College Football Playoff right now. You’ll notice Clemson is on the outside looking in right now after a season opening loss to LSU. 

Georgia Tech actually has a higher percentage to get in right now. Other than that, the ACC is kind of thin when it comes to playoff contenders through the first couple of weeks.

Big 12

Would be in: Iowa State (12.9%)
Work to do: Utah (27.2%), TCU (24.8%), BYU (22.8%), Texas Tech (11.1%), Baylor (5.7%)
Would be out: Kansas (6.3%), Arizona (3.4%), Arizona State (3.1%), UCF (1.7%), Houston (1.1%), Cincinnati (0.9%), Kansas State (0.7%), Colorado (0.4%), West Virginia (0.1%), Oklahoma State (0%)

Iowa State will be the lone Big 12 representative in the College Football Playoff, per the ESPN projections. Utah, TCU and BYU have interesting odds though, but still work to do.

The Cyclones already made their presence known in Ireland, beating Kansas State, whose odds significantly dropped. Hey Colorado fans, there’s still a chance because it’s not zero! In all seriousness, the Big 12 could be a one-bid league.

Independent

Notre Dame

Notre Dame is officially listed as a “would be in” with 24%, per the ESPN projections. That’s despite playing just one game this season, a loss to Miami.

However, the Fighting Irish are projected to win between 10 and 11 games against a quality schedule. That should get Marcus Freeman and crew back to the College Football Playoff.

Group of Five

Would be in: South Florida (34%)
Work to do: Tulane (19.8%), Memphis (16.6%), UNLV (11.1%), Navy (2.8%)

And now we get to the Group of Five representative! South Florida is who gets into the College Football Playoff, following a win over Florida. 

The path is clear for the Bulls, just keep winning. Tulane and Memphis are the other popular picks and perhaps UNLV might have something to say. Navy has an outside shot which would do wonders for the service academies.