College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: ESPN breaks down who's in, who's out after Week 9

The latest College Football Playoff Bubble Watch is here from ESPN’s Heather Dinich. Below is a complete breakdown of the Power Four conferences, who’s in, who’s out and who else from the Independents and Group of Five are in and out.

Brian Kelly’s firing was the big news of the weekend as LSU seems to be in shambles. The team that blew them out, Texas A&M, is rolling though and one of five projected SEC teams in the CFP. The Big Ten has three as well, leaving just four spots for the rest of them!

So without further ado, let’s dive into the latest College Football Playoff Bubble Watch. We’ll start with a stacked SEC!

SEC

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
On the cusp: None
Work to do: Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas
Would be out: LSU
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina

The SEC is projected to give five teams into the College Football Playoff right now, per Dinich. It’s by far the most loaded conference in 2025. As you can see, the five teams projected to get in only have four combined losses.

Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas are all still in contention at this point, but a third loss could ruin their chances. It’s a crowded field, but the Longhorns and Tigers have ranked opportunities remaining this season to truly turn the conference upside down in the final month.

Big Ten

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: None
Work to do: Iowa, Michigan, USC, Washington
Would be out: Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern
Out: Michigan State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin

The Big Ten has three participants in the latest College Football Playoff projections from ESPN and Dinich. Indiana and Ohio State are still undefeated while Oregon is lurking with their only loss coming to the Hoosiers. It seems easy to pencil these three in at this rate.

Iowa and Michigan aren’t out of it folks! Could Kirk Ferentz work some magic for the Hawkeyes? Michigan could always beat Ohio State again and finish 10-2 and shake things up, making the CFP. USC and Washington aren’t out of it yet either with just two losses on the resume.

ACC

Would be in: Georgia Tech, Miami
On the cusp: Virginia
Work to do: Louisville
Would be out: Cal, Duke, Pitt, SMU, Wake Forest
Out: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

The ACC gets two bids as of right now and it’s hard to see it being more, given that the SEC and Big Ten are projected to get eight bids total right now. Georgia Tech is undefeated and Miami is 6-1 right behind them.

So as far as both of them making the College Football Playoff, it seems likely at this pace, especially if they meet in the ACC title game. Louisville and Virginia are sneaky picks to get into the bracket though. Jeff Brohm has a knack for winning big games for the Cardinals, so keep an eye on them in the month of November. They already beat Miami.

Big 12

Would be in: BYU
On the cusp: Texas Tech
Work to do: Cincinnati, Houston
Would be out: Arizona, Arizona State, Iowa State, TCU, UCF, Utah
Out: Baylor, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia

The Big 12 is a single bid league in the College Football Playoff right now. BYU is the frontrunner because of their 8-0 record. But Texas Tech is right behind them at 7-1.

The two teams will square off in a couple of weeks and could rematch in the conference title game. But don’t sleep on Cincinnati and Houston making a late move in November either. The wildcard conference isn’t as wild right now, until it is right?

Independent

On the cusp: Notre Dame

Notre Dame is only considered on the cusp right now per Dinich because of the lack of a conference championship and the fact that they have two losses. But, the Fighting Irish have won five in a row and will be favored in their five remaining games.

It’s going to be very difficult to keep out a 10-2 Notre Dame team, especially if their losses to Texas A&M and Miami prove worthy (in the event those two make the College Football Playoff). Not only that, they beat a ranked USC team at the time and have controlled pretty much every other game.

Group of Five

Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Boise State, James Madison, Navy, North Texas, San Diego State, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV

Memphis is the Group of Five rep in Dinich’s College Football Playoff projections this week. They are currently ranked No. 25 in the country, 7-1 overall and 3-1 in the conference.

Interestingly enough, Tulane is 6-1 and 3-0 in AAC play while Navy is 7-0 and 5-0 in the conference! So while the Tigers look like the best team, depending upon your evaluation, others are vying for the spot!

Bracket

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M

First-round games

No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Georgia Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 BYU/No. 7 Miami winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Vanderbilt/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State