With the College Football Playoff, just get comfortable with the 4-team field

The SEC predictably was the big winner on the final day of the college football season, and not merely because it crowned a national champion for the 12th time in the past 16 seasons.

That College Football Playoff expansion talks stalled yet again earlier in the day Monday means we should get comfortable with the status quo for the next four years. And by status quo we mean a continued dominant presence by the SEC in the postseason. While other Power 5 conferences are fortunate just to get one team into the CFP field in a given year, the SEC will annually threaten to fill half of the field with its teams.

After discussions reached an impasse Monday, that postseason picture doesn’t seem likely to change much until 2026. In the end, no consensus could be reached because there are just too many competing interests at play. A seemingly exasperated Bob Bowlsby, the Big 12 commissioner, told reporters after the third day of meetings—totaling roughly eight hours in all — with league commissioners in Indianapolis that some still were holding out for four teams, others for eight teams and still others for 12 teams.

“It has been a frustrating process. …  We have entrenched issues that are no closer to be resolved,” Bowlsby said,

Bowlsby said the 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick weren’t even close to unanimity. While the CFP’s Bill Hancock didn’t close the door on expansion by 2024, stakeholders acknowledge that they are just about out of time. It is far more likely that, if expansion occurs, it won’t be until 2026. 

The hope after a 12-team College Football Playoff model was revealed in June was that it could be implemented for the final two seasons of the current contract with ESPN, which expires following the 2025 season. That could have meant an additional nearly half-billion dollars in revenue infused into college athletics at a time when additional revenue streams are desperately needed amid the pandemic.

But in addition to deciding on the number of participants in an expanded format, several other issues loom. Decisions need to be made on whether Power 5 conferences receive automatic berths into the field. Questions also remain over whether to stage first-round games on college campuses, how to distribute revenue and how to incorporate the Rose Bowl into any proposed model.

If an expanded CFP package hits the open market, a possibility many industry sources prefer, multiple TV networks — and perhaps a streaming service — are likely to bid on slices of that coveted property, thus driving up the price. Industry estimates for the media rights package in a 12-team model range up to $2 billion. ESPN currently pays the CFP some $470 million annually.

If Monday’s meeting—the seventh since the announcement of the proposed 12-team model piqued fans’ interest over the summer — didn’t produce significant progress, don’t expect sudden consensus to emerge anytime soon.

As Bowlsby said, “I am disappointed.” He isn’t alone.

Bowl title sponsors miss out

Five bowl games — the EasyPost Hawaii Bowl, Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl, Wasabi Fenway Bowl, San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl and the Peraton Military Bowl — were canceled because of COVID-19 related issues. The title sponsors of those games lost out on $13.7 million worth of TV exposure because of the cancellations, according to data that Apex Marketing Group provided Sportico.