College Football Playoff: Predicting who will win the national title?

The dust has barely settled on the College Football Playoff reveal, but the commentary on whether the Committee acted correctly can wait. We’re all about ball.

Who is going to win the national title? Let’s start projecting it.

First Round

James Madison at Oregon: Oregon waltzed through the regular season without a lot of high-leverage moments. It lost to the only CFP team it played all year, so we’re still trying to figure out just how good the Ducks are. Though James Madison making the CFP field is a fun story, there’s no shot the Dukes walk into Autzen Stadium and grab a win.
Winner: Oregon.

Alabama at Oklahoma: Though some people will debate whether Alabama should have gotten into the CFP after being blown out by Georgia in the SEC title game, the Crimson Tide made it. Now it has a rematch against an Oklahoma team against which Kalen DeBoer is 0-2. Oklahoma’s offense is limited, so it’s hard to see that number going to 0-3.
Winner: Alabama

Tulane at Ole Miss: One of the most intriguing storylines of the season has been the Lane Kiffin drama, but the Rebels didn’t have to sweat their inclusion in the CFP. And its first game is at home against Tulane, which the Rebels blew out earlier in the year. A similar result is expected.
Winner: Ole Miss

Miami at Texas A&M: This is the most intriguing matchup of the first round, mainly because the Miami vs. Notre Dame debate raged on for weeks. But now Miami is playing against a Texas A&M team that also beat Notre Dame. The Hurricanes can prove the CFP Committee right with a win in College Station, but it’s not going to be easy. That said, Miami’s as hot as anyone in the country at the moment.
Winner: Miami

Second Round

Oregon at Texas Tech in Orange Bowl: If you’re viewing Texas Tech as the type of team that is lucky to be in the CFP out of the Big 12, you haven’t paid attention to how the Red Raiders have assembled their roster. Though Oregon is also very deep and talented, it’s hard not to have faith in Texas Tech’s defense. The Red Raiders aren’t just happy to make the CFP. They want to make a run.
Winner: Texas Tech

Alabama at Indiana in Rose Bowl: If you wanted to go based solely on helmets and historical relevance, Alabama by a million. But Indiana proved in the Big Ten title game that it isn’t just a very good team. It is physically equipped to exist on the same field as the traditional powers. Alabama, though good, is a flawed team. The Hoosiers’ defensive line is nasty.
Winner: Indiana

Miami vs. Ohio State in Cotton Bowl: Ohio State now looks like a beatable team. It managed to score only 10 points in the Big Ten title game against Indiana. That said, the Buckeyes are still a team loaded with NFL talent and you could make the case that they were banged up and coming off an emotional win over Michigan. Ohio State is going to make another deep run in this tournament.
Winner: Ohio State

Ole Miss vs. Georgia in Sugar Bowl: The only loss Ole Miss suffered this season was to Georgia. Will it get its revenge in the CFP? Maybe. But anyone who just watched what Georgia did to Alabama in the SEC title game sees what the Bulldogs look like when they are playing at the highest possible level. I can’t see a first-time head coach beating Kirby Smart in that setting.
Winner: Georgia

CFP Semifinals

Indiana vs. Texas Tech in Peach Bowl: This is an amazing matchup because it’s two new-school teams trying to break through and take down the big dogs of the sport. Because they are playing each other, one is going to get clipped. But it also guarantees one will make it to the national title game. Indiana isn’t a fluke. It is a complete team that can actually win it all.
Winner: Indiana

Georgia vs. Ohio State in Fiesta Bowl: Who doesn’t love elite vs. elite? Ryan Day vs. Kirby Smart. Recent national champs vs. recent national champs. It’s perfect. One of the best CFP games of all time was the 2022 matchup between Ohio State and Georgia, and we get it again. This time? The Buckeyes are the defending national champion and probably the better team.
Winner: Ohio State

National Title Game

Ohio State vs. Indiana: This isn’t college basketball. Picking chalk all the way through may feel risky, but these are the two best teams in the sport. The Big Ten title game on Saturday night wasn’t the most exciting, but it was two elite-level defenses corralling explosive offenses. When these two teams play again with a chance to win the whole thing, I’d anticipate a more exiciting game. And I don’t think this Ohio State team is going to lose twice this year.
National Champion: Ohio State