Crazy scenario shows SEC West is still up for grabs

The last few weeks have provided extra intrigue in the SEC West. Starting with the Aggies’ win over Alabama in Week 6, the cannibalistic nature of the SEC West has wreaked havoc on the conference rankings.

With Week 11 games out of the way, there is one crazy scenario for the next two weeks that could result in a six-way tie for the West. On top of a six-way tie, Auburn would end up as the winner of the division.

The situation can only play out if the Crimson Tide does something it has not done in 13 seasons – which is, lose to the Arkansas Razorbacks.

Arkansas beating Alabama, which they currently have a 7.4% chance to do, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, is just part one of the crazy potential scenarios in the SEC West.

Ole Miss would need to beat Vanderbilt, which they are likely to do, but then they’ll have to lose to Mississippi State. Auburn needs to beat South Carolina after losing to Mississippi State this weekend. They also have to win the Iron Bowl to end the regular season.

After beating Alabama, Arkansas has to beat Missouri, which they haven’t done since 2016. The Aggies also need to add an end-of-season win versus LSU to finish at 5-3 in SEC play.

In this far-fetched scenario, Alabama, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Auburn would all finish the year with a 5-3 record. LSU would finish with a 2-6 conference record, their worst since 1999 in this situation.

Could Auburn win the SEC West?

The Auburn Tigers come out on top in the SEC West in this crazy scenario because they’d have wins over Arkansas and Alabama after Arkansas beat Texas A&M earlier in the year and Texas A&M beat Alabama.

Here’s how the six-way tie could occur with the FPI predictions:

• Arkansas beats Alabama in Week 12 – 7.4%
• Ole Miss beats Vanderbilt in Week 12 – 98.4%
• Auburn beats South Carolina in Week 12 – 76.1%
• Mississippi State beats Ole Miss in Week 13 – 49.3%
• Arkansas beats Missouri in Week 13 – 84.2%
• Auburn beats Alabama in Week 13 – 18.6%
• Texas A&M beats LSU in Week 13 – 57%

If all of this occurred but Ole Miss beats Mississippi State instead, the Rebels would win out with a 6-2 record in conference.

Regardless, there’s only a 0.2% chance that all of these games play out as imagined.