ESPN ranks Big 12 Football teams from first to last after Week 11

We’ve got three more weeks of regular season football in the Big 12 and it’s setting up to be an exciting finish. There are still a handful of schools playing for a chance at a conference championship, with much left to be determined.

Coming off of a Week 11 that saw Texas Tech run away with a 29-7 victory against BYU, handing the Cougars their first loss of the season, ESPN updated its rankings for the Big 12 according to its Football Power Index (FPI).

According to ESPN, The FPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.

But while the Red Raiders got their big victory to seemingly take control of the Big 12 race, it was another team that topped ESPN’s rankings. You can check out who, as well as the full list, below.

1. Utah Utes (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) – 19.8

Despite currently sitting in fifth place in the conference standings, Utah is the No. 1 team according to ESPN’s model. The Utes had a bye this past week after making easy work of No. 17 Cincinnati in Week 10, cruising to a 45-14 victory to hand the Bearcats their first Big 12 loss of the season.

Utah ranks No. 13 in the College Football Playoff rankings, putting it just outside the 12-team bracket at the moment. The Utes’ only losses this season are against Texas Tech and BYU, which currently rank ahead of them in the conference standings. That in mind, they’ll need a lot to happen in front of them to have a shot at playing for the Big 12 Championship.

2. Texas Tech Red Raiders (9-1, 6-1) – 19.2

With its win against BYU on Saturday, Texas Tech staked its claim as the favorite to win the Big 12 title. The Red Raiders led 26-0 before the Cougars even managed their first touchdown as they had full control from start to finish.

By the numbers, Tech’s offense is one of the best in the country, ranking fourth in points per game (42.1) and 10th in yards per game (479.9). Quarterback Behren Morton has missed a couple games due to injury but has a 4:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, while running back Cameron Dickey leads the conference with 867 yards rushing and 11 touchowns.

3. BYU Cougars (8-1, 5-1) – 15.1

Even with its loss against Texas Tech this past week, BYU is still firmly in the race for a Big 12 Championship. The Cougars remain in control of their own destiny so long as they win the remaining games on their schedule.

That includes a game against TCU this coming Saturday followed by a trip to Cincinnati on Nov. 22. The latter contest could ultimately decide who ends up facing off against Texas Tech in the title game.

4. TCU Horned Frogs (6-3, 3-3) – 9.5

Despite a loss against Iowa State this past week, TCU still mysteriously comes in ranked as the fourth-best team in the Big 12 according to ESPN’s FPI model. That defeat put the Horned Frogs way behind the rest of the pack when it comes to the conference championship race, with its hopes extremely thin at this point.

TCU lost 20-17 against the Cyclones, which marked its second defeat by three points this season after it also lost 27-24 against Arizona State earlier in the year. The Horned Frogs play BYU this week in what is a must-win to keep their hopes alive and potentially play spoiler at the same time.

5. Cincinnati Bearcats (7-2, 5-1) – 8.7

Prior to losing against Utah in Week 10, Cincinnati had reeled off seven consecutive victories. The Bearcats had a bye this past week and will look to get back on track after that restful period when they take on Arizona this Saturday.

Brendan Sorsby has been one of the best quarterback in the Big 12 with 2,064 yards passing and 21 touchdowns to only two interceptions. He also has 453 yards rushing and eight touchdowns as the Bearcats will be playing for a conference title if they can win out their remaining three games.

6. Iowa State Cyclones (6-4, 3-4) – 8.4

After competing for a Big 12 Championship last season, it unfortunately doesn’t look like that will be possible for the Cyclones a second year in a row. Even after a win against TCU this past week, Iowa State is still far behind in the league standings.

It started off a promising season as ISU went 5-0 early, but the Cyclones would go on a four-game losing streak after that to crush any championship aspirations. They still have a chance to reach eight wins for the fifth time in 10 seasons under coach Matt Campbell if they win their remaining two games.

7. Kansas State Wildcats (4-5, 3-3) – 8.2

Much like Iowa State, Kansas State entered this year with championship aspirations but has fallen well short of those expectations. Hope only existed in the preseason for the Wildcats, which dropped their season opener against the Cyclones and went on to a 1-3 start.

After a loss a couple weeks ago against Texas Tech, K-State was dealt more bad news as leading tackler Austin Romaine was ruled out for the rest of the season. At least this next week against Oklahoma State presents a winnable game for the Wildcats to regain some positive momentum.

8. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-3, 4-2) – 7.3

Arizona State needs chaos to happen over the final three weeks of the regular season, but it still has a small chance to play for a conference championship. Last year’s Big 12 champ, the Sun Devils are currently tied with Utah for fifth place.

ASU is also the only team that owns a win against Texas Tech, though that might not help it much if there ends up being a multi-way tie atop the conference standings like last year. For now, all they can do is hope things fall their way as they head into a game against West Virginia this week.

9. Arizona Wildcats (6-3, 3-3) – 7.2

A win against Kansas this past week helped Arizona to become bowl eligible after failing to do so last year in the inaugural season of coach Brent Brennan. Noah Fifita has quietly been one of the top quarterbacks in the conference with 2,200 yards passing and 23 touchdowns to only four interceptions.

It’s a challenging schedule ahead, with Cincinnati, Baylor and Arizona State still left in the coming weeks. Depending on how the Wildcats navigate that stretch, it could be quite the finish in Tuscon.

10. Baylor Bears (5-4, 3-3) – 6.4

Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson leads the Big 12 with 2,780 yards passing and 26 touchdowns to seven interceptions. In spite of this, the Bears remain a middle of the pack team in the conference.

We’ll see how they manage to close the season out, beginning Saturday against Utah. After that, they take on Arizona and Houston in their final two games.

Rest of ESPN’s Big 12 FPI rankings

11. Kansas Jayhawks (5-5, 3-4) – 5.4
12. Houston Cougars (8-2, 5-2) – 3.3
13. UCF Knights (4-5, 1-5) – 3.0
14. Colorado Buffaloes (3-7, 1-6) – (-1.2)
15. West Virginia Mountaineers (4-6, 2-5) – (-2.3)
16. Oklahoma State Cowboys (1-8, 0-6) – (-14.4)