ESPN SP+ predicts outcome of every bowl game, CFP semifinals

It is officially bowl season. Bowl games get underway beginning on Friday, with a slate of games that run through Jan. 4 excluding the national championship game. Ahead of the start of bowl season, ESPN has used its SP+ tool to predict the outcome of every bowl game on the 2021-2022 slate.

ESPN’s SP+ tool is a predictive measure that takes a lot of factors into consideration, including opt-outs and potential opt-outs. Bill Connelly of ESPN tweeted out the SP+ bowl predictions, which include 14 games within three points and 18 games that are within three points of the spread.

☃️😶‍🌫️ SP+ BOWL PROJECTIONS 🌨️⛷️

14 games projected within 3 points, straight up.

18 games within 3 points of the spread.

Lots of games with strange lines due to opt-outs (or potential opt-outs).

¯_(ツ)_/¯
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¯_(ツ)_/¯ pic.twitter.com/KnTJpq3lg1

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) December 14, 2021

ESPN SP+ predicts the outcome of every bowl game and includes a projected margin of victory, as well as a probability of a win in the simulations.

ESPN SP+ predicts entire bowl slate

Dec. 17
Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo: Toledo (13.2 projected margin, 78% probability)
Coastal Carolina vs. Northern Illinois: Coastal Carolina (20.2, 88%)

Dec. 18
Appalachian State vs. Western Kentucky: Western Kentucky (1.0, 52%)
Fresno State vs. UTEP: Fresno State (15.3, 81%)
BYU vs. UAB: BYU (0.2, 50%)
Liberty vs. Eastern Michigan: Liberty (13.4, 78%)
Oregon State vs. Utah State: Oregon State (9.7, 71%)
UL-Lafayette vs. Marshall: Marshall (1.2, 53%)

Dec. 20
Old Dominion vs. Tulsa: Tulsa (11.1, 74.4%)

Dec. 21
Kent State vs. Wyoming: Wyoming (4.5, 60%)
UTSA vs. San Diego State: San Diego State (0.1, 50%)

Dec. 22
Missouri vs. Army: Army (5.2, 62%)

Dec. 23
Miami (OH) vs. North Texas: Miami (OH) (7.8, 67%)
Florida vs. UCF: Florida (8.9, 70%)

Dec. 24
Memphis vs. Hawaii: Memphis (0.6, 51%)

Dec. 25
Ball State vs. Georgia State: Georgia State (9.3, 70%)

Dec. 27
Nevada vs. Western Michigan: Nevada (6.9, 66%)
Boston College vs. East Carolina: Boston College (1.1, 53%)

Dec. 28
Houston vs. Auburn: Houston (0.2, 50%)
Air Force vs. Louisville: Louisville (0.7, 52%)
Texas Tech vs. Mississippi State: Mississippi State (5.3, 62%)
NC State vs. UCLA: NC State (6.8, 65%)
West Virginia vs. Minnesota: Minnesota (12.6, 77%)

Dec. 29
Virginia vs. SMU: SMU (0.5, 51%)
Virginia Tech vs. Maryland: Virginia Tech (2.2, 55%)
Clemson vs. Iowa State: Clemson (5.3, 62%)
Oklahoma vs. Oregon: Oklahoma (2.7, 56%)

Dec. 30
North Carolina vs. South Carolina: North Carolina (7.1, 66%)
Purdue vs. Tennessee: Tennessee (9.2, 70%)
Michigan State vs. Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh (8.3, 68%)
Arizona State vs. Wisconsin: Wisconsin (6.3, 64%)

Dec. 31
Wake Forest vs. Texas A&M: Texas A&M (11.5, 75%)
Miami vs. Washington State: Miami (4.5, 60%)
Boise State vs. Central Michigan: Boise State (10.0, 72%)
CFP Semifinal: Alabama vs. Cincinnati: Alabama (4.2, 59%)
CFP Semifinal: Michigan vs. Georgia: Georgia (5.8, 63%)

Jan. 1
Arkansas vs. Penn State: Penn State (2.3, 55%)
Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State: Notre Dame (4.1, 59%)
Kentucky vs. Iowa: Kentucky (2.4, 56%)
Utah vs. Ohio State: Ohio State (12.7, 77%)
Baylor vs. Ole Miss: Ole Miss (2.8, 56%)

Jan 4
Kansas State vs. LSU: Kansas State (5.8, 63%)