ESPN updates NCAA Tournament Top 16 teams, 16 on the bubble ahead of Big Monday slate

This time next week, we’ll be in the month of March, which means no ESPN employee is busier right now than longtime bracketologist and NCAA Tournament expert Joe Lunardi, who has once again updated his projected field.

After the dust settled from the weekend, the 1-seed race looks like Sunday’s Nascar finish at the very top with three teams all right in contention for the top overall seed, per Lunardi. There was also one big winner over the weekend on bubble, while a couple of squads have opportunities on Monday evening to secure their at-large position or further move up in seeding.

Without further delay, take a look at Joe Lunardi’s projected top-16 teams along with the last teams to get a bye, the last teams in, and the ones who just missed the cut. It’s your Feb. 26 update:

1-Seeds

1. Purdue | Midwest
2. UConn | East
3. Houston | South
4. Arizona | West

With Houston moving to No. 1 in the AP Poll after a win at Baylor, along with recent losses from UConn and Purdue to even up these squads’ records with three losses each, Lunardi says Purdue, UConn and Houston are now in a “virtual tie” for the No. 1 overall seed with a couple weeks to go in the regular season. Meanwhile, Arizona fended off North Carolina and Tennessee for that final one spot even after suffering a home loss to Washington State this week.

2-Seeds

5. Tennessee | South
6. North Carolina | East
7. Marquette | Marquette
8. Kansas | West

Lunardi notes that UNC absolutely must avoid a home loss against a poor Miami team Monday evening to have any hope of remaining in the 1-seed chase. Tennessee, meanwhile, maintains as the top SEC team, while Marquette continues to round into form with 10 wins in their last 11. Kansas, though, has some current 3-seeds breathing down their neck.

3-Seeds

9. Iowa State | East
10. Duke | West
11. Alabama | Midwest
12. Creighton | South

Iowa State is stalking that top-two seed-line right now. The Cylones have won five of six and are KenPom-projected favorites in their final four regular season games. Plus, ISU is a game ahead of Kansas for second place in the conference and has the tiebreaker with the head-to-head. Elsewhere, Alabama suffered a setback but is still in good position to win the SEC, while Duke stays put in the 3-seed range.

4-Seeds

13. Auburn | East
14. San Diego State | West
15. Baylor | Midwest
16. Illinois | South

Following their three-overtime thriller in Waco a month ago, Joe Lunardi is anxious to see how the second installment of Baylor vs. TCU plays out in Fort Worth. With a bounce-back win after Saturday’s close loss to Houston, Lunardi has the Bears leaping Creighton for a 3-seed. The other interesting part is that the West region gets the lowest-rated 1-seed and 2-seed, which sets up nicely for Duke and then San Diego State, who are the third and second highest-rated teams on their seed-lines. Going out west could be a geographical disadvantage for Duke, or any of the contenders along the eastern seaboard, but they could benefit by playing in the weakest region.

Last Teams In

Last Four Byes: Texas, Wake Forest, Nevada, New Mexico
Last Four In: Seton Hall, Virginia, Providence, Gonzaga

Wake Forest was the talk of the weekend when it came to the NCAA Tournament bubble as well as the court storming debate. We’ll address the former, where the Demon Deacons are climbing fast following a marquee win over Duke. There’s also Gonzaga, who has a strong 22-6 record and a win at Kentucky, but is still teetering on the brink thanks to a shoddy strength of schedule and some bad losses.

First Teams Out

First Four Out: Texas A&M, Villanova, Utah, Colorado
Next Four Out: Butler, Ole Miss, Kansas State, Iowa

One of the bubble’s most common friends of the last few years, Texas A&M is smack-dab on the fence of being in vs. out. With a couple more weeks to play, being the last in or first out isn’t massively important in specific, but rather, just to know that you’re still in the mix and control you own destiny. Just got to go win some big games and avoid bad losses if you’re in this camp.

Conference tallies

Big 12: 9
SEC: 7
Big Ten: 6
Mountain West: 6
Big East: 5
ACC: 5
A-10: 2
Pac-12: 2
AAC: 2
WCC: 2

No surprise that the Big 12 leads the way with their incredible depth from top to bottom of the league, starting with Houston and going all the way through a decent Kansas State team that’s still battling for positioning in the field. Then, the SEC is having an extremely strong season and also boasts excellent depth, with the Big Ten, and oddly enough, the Mountain West tying for six teams apiece next up.