Field of 64 Projections: Where the hosting picture stands at midseason
On Monday, we released our first Field of 64 Projections of the 2024 college baseball season. While there’s a lot of season left before the NCAA Tournament will be decided, the postseason picture is an interesting one as it currently stands, especially with our Field of 64’s 16 regional hosts.
It’s going to feel weird not seeing a regional hosted by Stanford this season, but the Cardinal are unlikely to even make the tournament. Instead, we have some new faces in the hosting conversation.
In our initial Field of 64, we had the following teams hosting: Arkansas (1), Clemson (2), Texas A&M (3), Oregon State (4), Tennessee (5), North Carolina (6), East Carolina (7), Kentucky (8), Virginia (9), Florida State (10), Vanderbilt (11), Duke (12), Dallas Baptist (13), Nebraska (14), UC Irvine (15) and UCF (16).
After going through the entire field, let’s break down the hosting race as things currently stand. 16 teams will host a regional when it’s all said and done, but there are more teams than that who will be vying for one of those seeds.
Comfortable Top 8 Seeds
Arkansas, Clemson, Texas A&M, Oregon State, North Carolina, Tennessee
At this point, Arkansas, Clemson, Texas A&M and Oregon State are the clear-cut top four seeds in the NCAA Tournament. All four teams have a top ten RPI, with Oregon State the lowest at No. 10. Both Clemson and Arkansas have just three losses on the season so far, with the Razorbacks 11-1 in the SEC and the Tigers 10-2 in the ACC. Texas A&M and Oregon State each have four losses, with the Aggies 8-4 in the SEC and the Beavers 8-3 in the Pac-12.
North Carolina is right behind the top four, and there’s probably an argument for them to be in that group as well. The Tar Heels are 26-6 overall and 11-4 in the ACC, and currently sit at No. 4 in RPI. Tennessee is right there too, even with RPI sitting at No. 11. The Vols are 26-6 and 7-5 in the SEC.
Safe Bets to Host
East Carolina, Kentucky, Virginia, Florida State, Vanderbilt, Duke, UC Irvine
ECU and Kentucky are both top eight seeds in our initial Field of 64 and would host a super regional should they advance to that stage of the postseason. ECU needs to take care of business in the AAC, but they currently sit top eight in RPI. Kentucky is off to a great start at 27-4 overall and 11-1 in the SEC, sitting top five in RPI. The schedule will get tougher, but Kentucky’s start likely has them in great shape to host a regional.
The 7-12 range feels very interchangeable. Behind ECU and Kentucky, we slot in Virginia, Florida State, Vanderbilt and Duke. Virginia (RPI No. 13), Florida State (RPI No. 3) and Duke (RPI No. 16) will all have a tough road in the ACC, but if they come out near the top of the standings, it’ll be impossible for them to not host. The same can be said for Vanderbilt, who is currently at RPI No. 15 after starting off 25-7 and 8-4 in the SEC.
UC Irvine is an interesting team in the hosting discussion. The Anteaters have been great this season, sitting at 24-4 overall and 10-2 in the Big West. The only issue here is RPI. They currently sit at No. 17, and face a lot of poor RPI teams to end the season. UC Irvine is a hosting-caliber team. But their RPI celing is lower than the teams around them, which could force them to be a lower-end host, even if they keep winning.
Likely, but Uncertain Hosts
This next group includes three teams that we had as a host in our Field of 64. Dallas Baptist is currently No. 20 in RPI, the lowest team that we had as a host. They are currently 25-6 overall and 6-3 in CUSA, and will need to win the conference in all likelihood to establish themselves as a sure host. If they aren’t able to win the CUSA regular season, or fall too far in RPI along the way to winning it, Dallas Baptist could be just on the outside.
Nebraska and UCF are two teams that have recently had a surge into the rankings. Nebraska is our current projected winner in the Big Ten at 22-7 overall and 5-1 in conference play. The Huskers look like a strong team this year, and are currently No. 18 in RPI. If they keep playing well and secure the Big Ten, they could very well find themselves bringing a regional to Lincoln.
UCF looks to be the top team in the Big 12 right now, which is admittedly a surprise. UCF was 12-12 in the AAC last year, but have started their first year in the Big 12 21-8 and 8-7 in league play. The Big 12 is down, at least at the top, from what it’s used to. But if UCF, who currently sits at No. 7 in RPI, is able to win it, they’ll have a legitimate case to host.
Others That Could Play Their Way into Hosting
Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Coastal Carolina, Indiana State, Florida, Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Georgia
While none of the teams listed in this group are projected to host a regional in our initial Field of 64, it’s quite the group. Wake Forest entered the year as the top-ranked team, but have struggled at times and currently sit at 7-8 in the ACC with RPI at No. 14. The Demon Deacons impressed in a sweep over Virginia Tech this past weekend, though, and are certainly capable of playing their way into a top 16 bid. Florida was another preseason top five team, but the Gators have been inconsistent all year and it caught up to them this past weekend against Missouri. Florida is 17-14 overall and 6-6 in the SEC with an RPI in the 30s, but if they get on a roll and run through the rest of their SEC schedule, they’ll have a case.
Virginia Tech likely would have been a host if our Field of 64 was released before last week, but the sweep to Wake Forest has pushed them out. The Hokies are 21-8 and 10-5 in the ACC, but also have a RPI in the 30s.
Coastal Carolina was right on the cusp of hosting, and probably would have been next in line to host in our projections. The Chanticleers have had ups and downs this year, sitting at 22-9 and 7-5 in the Sun Belt. Winning the Sun Belt won’t be easy, but if Coastal Carolina is able to do so, they’ll be right their in the hosting picture.
Indiana State seems to be in a similar spot as they were last year. They are 23-7, 7-2 in the Missouri Valley, and sit at No. 12 in RPI. Their margin of error is thin, and can’t afford many losses. But if they cruise through the end of the regular season, they’ll be in the conversation. The same can be said for Oklahoma State, who is 21-11, 7-4 in the Big 12, and at No. 26 in RPI. They’ll need to get on a roll and win the Big 12 to be part of the discussion, but can’t be entirely ruled out yet.
That leaves Georgia and South Carolina. Georgia is 24-8 on the year, but 5-7 in the SEC. They feel like a team that should be ranked, and also sit at No. 9 in RPI as of today. If that RPI stays in the top 10-15 range, which it likely will in the SEC, the Bulldogs can’t be counted out. But it’ll likely take a serious run through the rest of their schedule. South Carolina has been inconsistent this year, currently 22-10 overall and 6-6 in the SEC. The Gamecocks are certainly capable of getting hot, though, and their RPI of No. 19 is in a good spot to keep them in the conversation, at the very least.